Skip to content

Peak Oil Matters

A fresh perspective on the concept of peak oil and the challenges we face

Archive

Tag: rate of production

 

123_2343

 

 

A moment’s pause to consider the practical realities of billions of others looking to improve their lifestyles on any scale by which we measure our own progress and achievements should realize immediately that a finite set of ever-more-challenging-to-acquire energy supplies needed to power those advances can only be spread so thin.

continue reading…

138_3812

 

 

 

… [T]here is no intellectually honest way to believe that the world can continue its near-total reliance on fossil fuels for much more than another decade — a paltry window of opportunity. We also know that we cannot wait until they go into decline before reaching for renewables and efficiency, simply because the scale of the challenge is so vast, and the alternatives are starting from such a low level that they will need decades of investment before they are ready to assume the load. The data is clear, and the mathematics are really quite straightforward. [1]

continue reading…

 

139_3937

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a follow-up to my most recent post, in which I offered a few observations on commentary attempting to debunk the concept of peak oil courtesy of this recent article by John Kemp. [Quotes here are from the Kemp article unless noted otherwise.]  continue reading…

tropical storm irene 054

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recently, in challenging contentions I had raised, “RGR”—an otherwise unnamed commenter (a petroleum engineer, if I understood correctly)—offered this: continue reading…

IMGP1230_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a follow-up to Monday’s post, in which I discussed some of the conclusions offered in a 2013 report issued by Tullet Prebon, a British financial services firm, and authored by Dr. Tim Morgan, Global Head of Research: PERFECT STORM – ENERGY, FINANCE, AND THE END OF GROWTH. [Unless otherwise noted, quotes are taken from that PDF report.]

As I previously noted, the report pays special attention to the concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested [EROEI] and its significance in discussions about peak oil and our future energy supply.

The critical issue with peak oil does not hinge around remaining reserves. Rather, the critical issues are energy returns on energy invested (EROEI) and deliverability….
We may have used up much less than half of the world’s originally-recoverable reserves of oil, but we have, necessarily, resorted first to those reserves which are most readily and cheaply recovered. The reserves that remain are certain to be more difficult and costlier to extract.
Production may not ‘peak’ just yet, but a new concept (which we term ‘resource constraint’) may soon kick in, implying that an economic model based on abundant and ever-increasing hydrocarbon inputs might be running out of road.

The reality about current oil production efforts—most notably those involving hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling [“fracking”] to which must of our recent surges in oil production is attributed—is that the process is much more expensive, carries many (and wide-ranging) adverse environmental consequences, and delivers a product not nearly as energy dense/efficient as conventional crude oil has for more than a century.

We’re resorting to shale formations as our go-to energy fields because the conventional crude “good” stuff is no longer as plentiful or accessible. Relying on ever-greater quantities of a finite resource for the ever-expanding needs of an ever-expanding global population runs headfirst into basic math: keep removing X from the finite supply pile leaves less X left in that pile. So now we’re moving down the line into the not-as-good-stuff.

And among the problems clearly associated with the not-as-good-stuff is that it takes more effort and money to get it from there to here . That means even less of the energy we all need is left over after the additional energy inputs required to produce tight oil from shale formations: [EROEI – the energy return on energy invested]. Not good math. Those wells deplete much more rapidly than do the wells from conventional crude reserves, so even more effort and energy and money is needed because more wells must be drilled just to keep up. Also not good math.

Certainly the development of hydraulic fracturing has produced an impressive increase in oil production over the last few years. But those limitations mentioned above aren’t helpful for those counting on more of that Business As Usual for many more years to come. The technology is impressive, but impressive technology employed against finite resources carrying their own set of daunting challenges will only take us so far.

[E]xpecting a technological solution to occur would be extremely unwise, because technology uses energy – it does not create it. To expect technology to provide an answer would be equivalent to locking the finest scientific minds in a bank-vault, providing them with enormous computing power and vast amounts of money, and expecting them to create a ham sandwich.
In the absence of such a breakthrough, really promising energy sources (such as concentrated solar power) need to be pursued together, above all, with social, political and cultural adaptation to ‘life after growth’.

That’s not good news for any of us. The sooner all of us recognize that, the sooner we can begin to address with the requisite levels of seriousness, expertise, and cooperation mandated to deal with adaptation.

Our other option isn’t all that appealing. But perhaps it’s just me:

If EROEI falls materially, our consumerist way of life is over.
There are two really nasty stings in the tail of a declining EROEI. First, net energy availability may fall below the amount required for essential purposes including healthcare, government and law. It is hardly too much to say that a declining EROEI could bomb societies back into the pre-industrial age.
Indeed, a decrease in net energy below subsistence levels is an implicit consequence of EROEI decline beyond a certain point – one which is difficult to estimate, but is likely to occur within the next decade – which means that this is when the nastiest results of all start happening.
Second, of course, a decline in net energy availability could (indeed, almost certainly will) result in conflict driven by competition for access to diminishing surplus energy resources.

Opportunity beckons….
 
~ My Photo: Manhattan Beach, CA – 02.23.14

 

* I invite you to enjoy my two new books [here and here], and to view my other work at richardturcotte.com :
 

       * Looking Left and Right

A blog examining the liberal vs. conservative conflicts in our society

 

       * Life Will Answer

Thought-provoking inquiries & observations about how (and why) Life does … and does not, work for everyone. [Inspired by my book of the same name]


       * The Middle Age Follies

A column offering a slightly skewed look at life for those of us on the north side of 50

 

Looking Left and Right:
Inspiring Different Ideas,
Envisioning Better Tomorrows

Peak Oil Matters is dedicated to informing others about the significance and impact of Peak Oil—while adding observations about politics, ideology, transportation, and smart growth.

 

 

IMGP1207_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I recently came across PERFECT STORM – ENERGY, FINANCE, AND THE END OF GROWTH. It’s a well-written and thoroughly-researched 2013 report issued by Tullet Prebon, a British financial services firm (in the wholesale financial and energy sectors), authored by Dr. Tim Morgan, Global Head of Research. continue reading…

110_1097_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Knovel Corp: continue reading…

IMGP4291_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At the risk of starting a cat fight where truth may too quickly become a casualty, why don’t we more forcefully challenge those who deny peak oil (and global warming) and who do so for reasons that generally ignore reality in favor of narrowly-defined interests? continue reading…

IMG_4756_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRUTH BE TOLD

 

Crude oil production is heavily concentrated in a small number of countries and a small number of giant  continue reading…

072010 012_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The key take-away from the US EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook released [in December] jumps out in the graph below: US crude oil production should peak in 2016 at a level 26% higher than that projected just one year ago. That’s an additional 2 million barrels a continue reading…