Peak Oil Matters

We are so woefully ill-prepared….

“[S]ix in ten surveyed by Pew believe that the economic situation will be better soon and that the recession is only temporary. This alone vividly illustrates how poorly the true state of the global economic situation is understood and the size of the shock that most of us are in for.
“Nearly everyone will admit that continuing oil shortages and that high (above $100 a barrel) oil prices would be devastating to the prospects for economic recovery and that persisting very high (say above $200 a barrel) oil prices would send the U.S. and many other economies into a deep, long-lasting depression. The problem is that few are willing to consider seriously the accumulating evidence that increasing oil prices and eventually oil shortages within the next few years are as inevitable as the sunrise. Most of us have no thoughts about the issue other than the current price of a gallon of gas. Among those who appreciate that the world’s petroleum resources are finite, few understand the proximity of the crisis.” [1]

Michael Lind, whose recent article on transportation I criticized in a prior post, has written a new piece arguing for public investment in our nation’s infrastructure (highways, water and sewer systems, power/electric grid, etc.). His is only one of many recent articles (including several of my own, beginning with this one) on the importance of infrastructure spending and revitalization. (See this also.) As I usually do with Mr. Lind’s opinions—recent post aside—I agree with his premise, but with caveats:

“If neither foreign private demand nor foreign public demand can compensate for the loss of American private domestic demand, then the only possible source of increased demand for American goods and services that remains is public domestic demand. American government at all levels may need to provide much of the missing demand for American businesses and labor, for the decade or longer that is needed for private sector deleveraging in the aftermath of America’s asset bubble.
“To avoid competing with private enterprise, the government should produce public goods that increase overall productivity and that the private sector has no incentive to provide, in good times or bad, such as infrastructure and social services like policing, health care, education and care for the young and old. In addition to mobilizing idle resources and labor directly, both infrastructure and public service spending could help business in general by boosting the purchasing power of Americans who are now unemployed.”

There are enough studies showing the many benefits of infrastructure spending, so regardless of what type of infrastructure expenditures are eventually made, they will serve to create jobs, enhance demand, and provide a boost to our economy.

The mindless objections to government spending in this day and age, while serving short term political interests (and even that is dubious) can only harm us long term. We cannot continue to do what we’ve always done … we’ll just get more of what we’ve gotten so far. That won’t cut it anymore. What has gotten us here won’t work in the years to come in the face of declining fossil fuel availability, and there is almost nothing on the books to suggest that we have any plans in place to deal with the disruptions declining oil supplies will create. That’s a big problem all by itself.

Another problem that has been expressed is that in the aftermath of this Great Recession, and with the onset of Peak Oil, we may very well never enjoy again the type of growth we’ve come to expect. As Kurt Cobb noted nearly five years ago:

“The hardest sell to any audience is that there is a chance for us to chart a course to sustainability, but that it will take a lot of work at every level: individual, household, municipal, state, federal and even international. And, by the way, when we get there all of us will have considerably less material wealth than we do today.” [2]

Our sense of entitlement is about to be shaken in ways we cannot even begin to imagine. Subtle and not-so-subtle shifts in how we live our daily lives and how our economy functions will become apparent, mostly (at least initially) to our dismay. Things are going to change, and not usually for the better—at least not right away (and I’m trying hard to be as optimistic as I can). Ducking responsibility, hoping otherwise, or just avoiding the issue entirely are not our best options.

A related issue that deserves serious consideration as well is that with the decline in oil production and decreasing availability looming, we’re going to need different strategies and a different vision for what “growth” will mean. That is going to require a different infrastructure. Relying on the fossil fuel-derived one won’t serve us when we have to depend on and use something other than fossil fuels to power and support our economy and industry.

Any infrastructure spending going forward must be targeted more carefully and clearly to help us move to industry and growth beyond and without fossil fuels. Repairing or even just maintaining what we have may turn out to be a monumentally foolish way of time, effort, and money. I quite frankly do not know if we are capable of creating and implementing plans on a large enough scale to do all that needs to be done because the infrastructure we now have in place, however poorly it may be functioning right now (see my February 24 post linked above), is not going to be the one that serves our needs in the largely fossil fuel-free world we’re going to find ourselves in a few short years down the road.

The sheer scope of what we will have to undertake in the face of declining oil supplies is—if we really try to wrap our minds around it—as close to incomprehensible as we can get. As I noted in a prior post on infrastructure (here):  “We have designed our lifestyles, our economic and industrial development, and our communities around cheap, easily-produced oil. Our everyday world is premised on that continuing supply (together with natural gas) to produce and transport food, to fuel our transportation, build and heat or cool our buildings, purify our water, treat our waste, and build, well, just about everything we use.”

Without a new infrastructure in place, one designed to operate and serve as the foundation of … well, pretty much everything, and one designed also to operate on some alternative energies we are not even close to implementing on anything even remotely approaching the scale needed, efforts to transition away from fossil fuels are only prolonging the inevitable, and likely making things much, much worse. The loud “thud” we’ll all be hearing is going to be our comfy and cozy ways of life. Most of us have no clue….

We’ve spent decades and countless sums creating an infrastructure to support and enable our growth and successes primarily because we’ve had access to inexpensive and plentiful oil, and that’s not going to be an option for us before too long. Needed change will only be measured in years of planning and effort.

We won’t be waking up one Monday morning and realize that we’ve run out of oil. That is not the issue. The issue is that we’re not going to have enough to do all that we are accustomed to and all that we need to do in our daily lives. Something is going to have to give, and so far, we have no idea what that might be or how to even think about dealing with the challenges.

There are no quick fixes, and certainly no easy fixes. We’re going to have less oil available to help us effect the needed changes, so we’re hamstrung to begin with (unless we make most of it available for infrastructure and very little for everything else, which is not likely to go over well with … everyone). We only have a relatively narrow window of time to adapt to begin with.

As I previously noted: “There are countless opportunities awaiting us, and countless problems looming if we don’t start thinking about how to deal with less oil.”

Peak Oil is not measured in weeks or even months, but infrastructure re-creation is likewise not so measured. We are talking years, and we are going to have to try and do all of this with much less fossil fuel available. Despite our expected inclination to want to try and do all of this all at once, we are also going to have to consider the impact on climate and the environment as we transition to whatever new forms of infrastructure will be needed.

And echoing one of the key themes I’ve been emphasizing throughout, Sharon Astyk, in a terrific post, observed:

“The simple fact is that we are taking precisely the wrong course as we de-emphasize self sacrifice – and everything we do to reinforce the idea that people will have essentially the same lifestyle that they have reinforces their inevitable sense of betrayal when that proves not to be the case. We are, in fact, seeing that sense of betrayal in working class and lower income families joining tea parties to express their sense that they have lost a basic access to a decent way of life.
“What could work – with great difficulty – is for us to enlist our fellows in a great project of courage and self-sacrifice – engage those people who feel least a part of this society. People climb mountains, run marathons, march off to be killed at war, and engage in all sorts of grand, painful and difficult challenges because doing so expresses their sense of honor, their courage, their patriotism, their love for others. As long as we fear to call upon one another to sacrifice, as long as we sell the narrative that an essentially similar life is possible, as long as we deny the costs, we will give up the greatest tool we have – the passionate energy of those who are doing what must be done for a better future. There is no certainty that such a course would be successful, of course, but it could hardly be less successful than our current strategies.” [3]

In that same post, Ms. Astyk also raised one other point that I expect many will not appreciate hearing, but is one we’re all going to have to accept:

“All solutions must work on a world scale. China and India will not accept a lower standard of living than we have, and will not reduce their coal burning and car usage if we demand that we all keep our cars and run our a/c any time we get warm. Neither will Russia. No narrative that includes the underlying idea that we’re going to keep using more energy than most other people can possible address climate change – period.”

We are at the dawn of an era of incredible opportunity if we choose and act wisely, and as a community, but we must first accept the realization that we are facing some serious challenges in the near future. We’re responsible for what we’ve created, just as we are responsible for resolving the problems our successes (and excesses) have brought us. We may indeed never again enjoy the levels of growth, prosperity, and successes that have defined our past. But this is not to say that we can’t craft new measures of success and prosperity going forward.

“The great transition of the 21st century will entail enormous adjustments on the part of every individual, family, and community, and if we are to make those adjustments successfully, we will need to plan rationally. Implications and strategies will have to be explored in nearly every area of human interest—agriculture, transportation, global ware and peace, public health, resource management, and on and on.” [4]

The choice is ours.

Sources:

[1] http://www.energybulletin.net/node/53441: The peak oil crisis: A mid-year review; Published Jul 14 2010 by Falls Church News-Press, Jul 14 2010 by Tom Whipple

[2] http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2006/11/attitude-adjustment-facing-our.html: Attitude adjustment: Facing our ecological predicament; November 12, 2006

[3] http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/2010/07/our_tails_get_in_the_way_the_p.php: Our tails get in the way: The problems and principles of energy descent – 07/13/2010 – Casaubon’s Book

[4] Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines by Richard Heinberg (pp. 22-23) – New Society Publishers

“We’re not investing adequately or strategically in our nation’s future, and we’ll pay a huge price if we don’t change course….

“Because we’re under-investing in the areas that will determine our future dynamism and standard of living, we’ll continue to  lose ground relative to our competitors and may eventually lose ground in absolute terms as well….

 “[I]t’s hard not to conclude that the past ten years were a lost decade. We can’t afford to lose the next one.…

 “Our margin for error is a lot smaller than it was a generation ago. We can no longer afford to waste resources, public or  private, on expenditures that do not create economic or social value.” [1]

In this most recent series of posts (here and here) I’ve attempted to provide a framework of understanding as to why we need to consider the vital role our infrastructure (highways, water and sewer systems, power/electric grid, etc.) has played in our nation’s economic development, and how vital it will remain provided we understand that the infrastructure of the future will require a substantial overhaul in the age of Peak Oil. It will no longer be enough to maintain or repair what we have. A move away from fossil fuel dependency necessitates that we design and build/renovate a foundation that reflects a new energy era … assuming we wish to maintain our role as one of the dominant economic powers, that is.

The problem is that we have no coherent infrastructure policy per se. Like most national issues nowadays, we have an infrastructure that is usually at the mercy of whatever whims move a particular congressperson to seek pork for his or her district (or, to be fair, occasional legitimate expenditures to maintain, repair, or replace an infrastructure system). As we see time and again, “long term strategies” usually run from today until next election day.

This political and economic ignorance, evidence of which we are now witnessing on an almost daily basis, is going to lead us right off the edge of a very high cliff unless we smarten up. Too few of our leaders appreciate this, and 300 million of us are going to suffer because we continue to tolerate misinformation, obfuscation, obstruction, and a level of mean-spirited and astonishingly narrow-minded partisanship unlike anything most of us have ever seen.

And yes, while that criticism falls on both sides of the aisle, there is no doubt in my mind that the Right’s fear that President Obama’s success will end their reign for decades to come will be the predominant cause of our ruin. They offer almost nothing constructive (beyond hypocrisy and a generous supply of deceit and misinformation) to the dialogues we need to have. When a shameless right-wing Senator places a hold on 70 federal government appointees (!) and in the next breath claims “I don’t have any idea” if they are qualified or not, we have a problem of integrity and character well beyond all bounds of decency. [2]

Just saying “No”, arguing against spending money at a time when no other entity has the ability to do so to re-energize our economy (and yes, deficits matter … just not now), and then cutting taxes, is a collective strategy all right, but not one that’s designed with a genuine long-term vision in mind—at least not a vision with any hope of helping anyone. The Right’s borderline insane attacks on the President and their outright refusal to step away from their single-minded aim of regaining political power and instead consider joining the other side in fashioning a better future for the citizens of this country are means to a genuinely troubling end. The United States will not be alone in suffering the consequences of this political arrogance and ignorance.

If we don’t collectively agree on where we want to be not just next month or after the next election cycle, but 5, 10, 20, 50 years out, recognizing at last that we live in a different world with different and more complex challenges that require different solutions, then we might as well pack it in now. We’ll be a third-rate country in a couple of very short decades.

The issues and problems and challenges that confront us now cannot be resolved the same way we resolved problems before. It’s 2010, not 1910. The rules are different; the game itself is different. And yes, to the Right’s great dismay, government has to be involved. It’s the only institution big enough to provide the framework for what needs to be done. So the choice is to join and invigorate the debate and play a role beyond obstructing progress, or to contribute to our collapse.

“… most of the needed investment should come not from government, but from the private sector. However,  government’s role will be decisive in setting the course through leadership, coordination, regulation, and investment.” [3]

“Firms will not provide the trillions of dollars needed to develop energy infrastructure in the coming decades without credible  signals that governments are serious about instituting policies that will allow the private sector to cash in on such investments.”  [4]

It’s time to stop being stupid. It’s time for the leading voices of the Right to stop treating their followers as if they are stupid. Educate them! Frightening or misleading them instead is insane.

Start telling the truth—all of it, not just the parts that make those voices seem as if they are the only god-fearing patriots in America. They’re not. Get over it. Grow up. We have serious issues to deal with here in the real world. Join in. The door is open. (What will earn them greater respect: their insistence on a narrow-minded philosophy that clearly does not have the long-term interests of this nation at heart, or the courage to admit we have some serious issues to resolve and that we need to handle them differently and cooperatively?) Those “leaders” own that choice.

“A competitive America is also an America that finally has a smart energy policy.  We know there is no silver bullet here – that  to reduce our dependence on oil and the damage caused by climate change, we need more production, more efficiency, and  more incentives for clean energy. 

“What we can’t do is stand still.  The only certainty of the status quo is that the price and supply of oil will become  increasingly volatile; that the use of fossil fuels will wreak havoc on weather patterns and air quality….This country has to  move towards a clean energy economy.  That’s where the world is going.  And that’s how America will remain competitive  and strong in the 21st century.” President Obama [5]

The man understands….The question is, how many other leaders from both sides of the political fence, how many business leaders, how many local government officials, how many influential voices in the media, and how many of us, appreciate those same truths? (How does any rational person consider the increasing world-wide industrialization, the growth of China and India among others, and the millions of new cars on the road and honestly believe that has no significant effect now or later on our climate or energy supplies?)

Our infrastructure as presently constituted took decades to create. It will likely take decades to re-fashion one not dependent on coal, oil, and gas—although we really don’t have that much time. So where do we start?

We need to understand the importance of a vision for the future that extends beyond November’s elections. What we need is not a left wing, progressive, center-left, center, center-right, or right wing plan. We need an American plan, an American strategy that will place us at the forefront of economic recovery and prosperity in the decades ahead—decades in which oil has been supplanted by new energy sources and innovations commensurate with the demands of the future. Oil provided us with a great ride for 150 years, but it’s getting close to the end of that ride. Do we plan for the rest of our journey now, or wait until we crash into the wall before we figure out how to continue on? Planning means effort; it means vision; it means the courage to take unpalatable steps now and then, and it means spending money now.

Our success and prosperity going forward will depend on how many of us understand and accept the fact that we’ve been utilizing finite resources that by definition will eventually run out. And long before they do, the efforts to extract whatever is left will become increasingly pointless.

Making the perfect the enemy of the good is no longer acceptable. Yes, there are some concerns about the causes and effects of global warming as well as Peak Oil’s imminence. The verdicts are not unanimous. But we cannot afford to cast aside the solid and credible, irrefutable evidence that now exists just because it’s not all perfect. How many things in life ever are?! The at best disingenuous (and occasionally nutty) denials guarantee a lot of standing around. What exactly is that gaining any of us except to make the problems that much more intractable later on? We can only continue to kick these cans so far down the road.

The world is moving ahead, and changing. Do we lead, or race like hell to try and catch up because too many of us were too delusional, too ignorant, or too fearful to admit that there are enough facts, truths, and evidence (the kinds that have no political affiliations) that mandate we act on them now? More choices….

Could we all use a bit more convincing? Sure. But are we really helping ourselves by standing firm in denial and delusion while we wait? There is a LOT of evidence suggesting that the days of easily accessible, available, and inexpensive oil are coming to an end; and there is a LOT of evidence suggesting that what we humans are doing is creating a potential global warming catastrophe. It should be enough to convince rational and intelligent people to start acting.

So do we do nothing instead, waiting for perfect proofs at every turn, or do we begin the research and planning and production now, allowing market forces and more creativity to spark even more innovation? Clearly NOTHING happens if we do nothing, or wait for the perfect moment and perfect set of economic conditions….No one wants to hear it, but the truth is that this is going to be a major, expensive undertaking, and all of us have roles to play. And yes, undoubtedly there will be sacrifices along the way.

 “The contours of a resilient, low-carbon recovery are becoming clear. Underlying all these measures is a common principle:  the need to lay down now the infrastructure and the hardware to support a low-carbon recovery and the green economy of the  future.” British Prime Minister Gordon Brown

We need to start now. We need to have serious discussions involving serious people with serious understanding and a serious desire to vault us into a new era of growth and well-being. Opportunities….

Next: A Look At Transportation

Sources:

[1] http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/future-shock-0; Future Shock: Americans just aren’t equipped for the 21st century. William Galston February 24, 2010
[2] http://thinkprogress.org/2010/02/26/shelby-unapologetic/; Shelby Dismisses The Adverse Effect Of His Holds On The Pentagon, Says He Has No Clue If Nominees Are Qualified by Amanda Terkel, February 26, 2010
[3 http://globalpublicmedia.com/memo_to_the_president_elect – Museletter 200: Memo to the President-elect on Energy Realism and the Green New Deal; 04 Dec 2008; MuseLetter 200 by Richard Heinberg
[4 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65897/david-g-victor-and-linda-yueh/the-new-energy-order; The New Energy Order: Managing Insecurities in the Twenty-first Century; January/February 2010; David G. Victor and Linda Yueh
[5 President Obama in a February 24, 2010 address to the Business Roundtable, as reported here: http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/83457-obama-smart-energy-policy-key-to-competitive-america

Every challenge we face now or will likely face with the onset of Peak Oil is a problem, unless we choose to view it for what it might actually be: an opportunity. Every product or service or method that relies upon oil is an opportunity to re-design or re-invent its successor. Easy? Of course not. But is the measure of “easy” the deciding factor in how we choose our future?

The truths, unpleasant though they may be, are the truths: inexpensive, readily available oil is slowly but surely becoming less readily available, more expensive, and harder to come by. We can wish for all the magic technology in the world, ignore every single environmental consequence, ignore all the geopolitical and geological realities, pretend that oil will still be ours for the asking as often and for as much as we want, or hope that Someone Else is going to rescue us, but delusion and denial will only take us so far. The sooner we accept the evidence before us, the sooner we plan intelligently on how to deal with what Peak Oil might mean to all of us.

I’m no different than most: I don’t want to have to do without; I don’t want to give up ambitions or expectations; I don’t want to have to make do with less or different, and I have no great desire to devote time and effort and planning and doing to embrace changes to my lifestyle. I like how my life has been—recession notwithstanding—and once we’re over this hump, I definitely prefer life to return to how it once was and to continue along on the business-as-usual and life-as-we-know-it path, waiting for the next great consumer product or technology that will make my life easier and more fun.

But the problem is that a future without the abundance of oil we’ve relied upon is going to happen regardless of my wishes and preferences, as it will for you. We can either choose to play a role in how it unfolds, or we can let events overtake us. We can decide to just enjoy what we can in the moment, while hoping that the overtaking will prove to be farther out than we realize, or that it won’t be as painful, or that someone/anyone is going to come to the rescue in ways that won’t require us to do much of anything except reap the fruits of someone else’s labors and vision. Nice thought … wholly unrealistic.

We have some key decisions to address soon. Where will we commit our financial and industrial resources? Are we going to dedicate public and private funds to a continuing search for more crude oil in costlier, harder-to-find-and-harder-to-extract locations? Do we allocate those funds to greater promotion of unconventional sources such as oil shale and tar sands?

Or do we choose a different path with the future in mind by directing our investments and efforts and skills toward a different energy base? There are no guarantees, and committing to that path will not provide us with quick or easy solutions. Relinquishing our ties to what once was and still is will not be a painless choice. But a longer term perspective on our future mandates that we consider these choices seriously, and soon. Waiting until we’re certain that Peak Oil is upon us is much too late.

Bob Herbert of the New York Times wrote a terrific (as usual) op-ed earlier this month (here) discussing once again the “sorry state” of our neglected infrastructure and the continuing decline of our standard of living. A monumental overhaul is needed, and it is indeed unfortunate that too few in positions to actually do anything about it have the courage and understanding to appreciate it. 

Herbert stated:

“Neither the politicians nor much of the mainstream media are spelling out the severity of these enormous structural problems  or the sense of urgency needed to address them. Living standards are sinking in the United States, and there is no coherent  vision or plan for reversing that ominous trend over the long term….

“I was also struck by the pervasive sense that if we don’t get our act together then the glory days of the go-go American  economic empire will fade like the triumphs of an aging Hollywood star. One of the participants [at a Brookings  Institution/Lazard-sponsored conference] raised the very real possibility of Americans having to get used to living in an  economy ‘that won’t be number one,’ an economy that perhaps is more like Germany’s….

Lumping that assessment in with the challenges that Peak Oil will impose upon us is not exactly a vision for the future we’d all like to share in. But we are not limited to the options of either complete denial or complete catastrophe.

Adapting to changes, taking the steps needed to rebuild what we must, and then create what we can is not an endeavor restricted to a handful of our business and political leaders. We all have a stake in our future. If we’re all invested in designing and then implementing new standards of living and producing, the benefits are enhanced tenfold. Having a say in where we go and what we achieve is preferable to remaining a passive observer.

Hebert continues:

“A new, saner, more sustainable economy will have to be more export-oriented, powered by cleaner fuels, bolstered by  innovation that comes from a renewed focus on research and development, and committed to delivering a better-educated,  more highly skilled work force.

 “Mr. Katz [who made the suggestions above] believes this is doable, but by no means easy. The nation’s infrastructure, he  said, will have to ‘shift from 20th-century models of transport and energy transmission to rapid bus, ubiquitous broadband,  congestion pricing, smart grid, high-speed rail and intelligent transport.’”

What tremendous opportunities for all of us! For all the turmoil and problems we face, there are solutions. Our ingenuity, our skills, our courage, our sense of community and well-being, and our individual and collective desires for a better future are resources we already possess to help us chart a new and yes, an even better course for our future. It’s up to us … all of us, together.

How great will it be to live in a country that has resolved the problems of unemployment; that has resurrected our economic and financial well-being; that has established new standards of living for all of us; that has opened up new opportunities for its citizens and businesses; that has repaired and re-built our infrastructure in ways that will allow for unlimited successes in the future—new and varied as that all may be? How exhilarating will it be to recognize that our technologies and our creativity have now taken us to a place where we are now fashioning an entirely new system of economic and industrial prosperity?

Is there anything inherently wrong with developing new values and news ways of life? Is there a rule that suggest that success and prosperity can be measured and valued only based on standards from the past?

Business as usual is not an option now. It will unlikely be one for a long while to come. Peak Oil won’t help as we re-build. Do we really want that to be our ultimate aim: to just settle back to the way things once were while much of the world passes us by economically and technologically, or do we really want more and better? We’re going to have to learn to look at progress and success in different and more creative ways. What we have now is not sustainable forever, not if we plan to rely on fossil fuels as the engine for our industrial and economic growth. And yes, none of this will be free, and much of it will require direct and significant involvement of our federal government, to the horror and dismay of those who think that “tax cuts” are the solution to everything. This challenge is far too great to think that we can set aside government entirely and leave it all to the “markets.” Every institution will have a key role to play, as will each of us.

What kind of a future do we want for ourselves?

Make no mistake: A move toward renewable sources of energy might very well lead to a future decidedly less than what we’ve come to expect or demand. That has to be acknowledged—reluctantly to be sure. Others have noted that we could be facing a simpler future where the local community and small businesses are the prime influences in our lives, and where technological gizmos of all kinds are simply no longer part of the equation of daily living. At first glance that is hardly an appealing goal for any of us to strive for. That seems a long step back.

One writer noted simply, yet eloquently, that his vision is “the right of all citizens to live larger lives….the right to live life more fully and engage more expansively the elemental possibilities of human existence.” [1] Not such a bad goal….We’ll have a lot of avenues open to us to reach it, so we’re not necessarily consigned to a future of less.

Do we just decide in the face of this recession, and our financial struggles, and terrible unemployment, and a crumbling infrastructure, and the most uncivil political discourse most of us can ever remember, and the fears that Peak Oil might easily spawn, that we’re content treading water, with an occasional burst of creativity and economic well-being; or do we really want to stretch out our future in ways we might not be able to fully envision now? Are we really that content with how things have been? Is our endless quest for profits and … more really that gratifying? Is more of the same really what we all want from life?

How many of us here don’t want a better and more prosperous and satisfying future for ourselves and our children? Who doesn’t want to play a role in the restoration of America as the undeniable leading nation on Earth? We have that much potential once again … we’ll just do so without a short-sighted reliance on oil and a mind-numbing belief that saying “no” to every progressive idea is an actual strategy. Fearing change is no longer an option.

We can hope that our business leaders and our federal government will somehow finance, design, and implement some kind of World War II/Apollo moon project energy-transitioning crash program without any input or effort on our part, but I wouldn’t be placing too many bets on that. Any transition away from our dependency on oil is going to take a lot of effort, commitment, and time. We can only hope that supplies are not so restricted in that intervening period that we fall further behind economically and politically. Every day we wait is another day lost on the path of designing a more technologically advanced society that is not built on an eroding foundation of fossil fuels. Taking the difficult steps now will simply avoid even more difficult steps later.

The future is indeed ours to create, much as we may think we have no say. Which path do we choose?

Next: The (Peak) Oil World We Live in

Sources:

[1] http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090525/greider?rel=hp_picks – The Future of the American Dream By William Greider; May 6, 2009, (from an article excerpted from Mr. Greider’s book, Come Home, America. Copyright © 2009)

and

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/06/opinion/06herbert.html – Time Is Running Out, By Bob Herbert, February 6, 2010

I’ve noticed more general discussion about the topic of Peak Oil in recent weeks—helped in no small part by Sir Richard Branson and the Peak Oil report issued by a British group in which he played a key role—although it still remains well below the mainstream media radar.

The net result is that the majority of our population continues to remain unaware of Peak Oil, let alone understand or appreciate the potential challenges we’ll face once it is fully upon us. The louder voices continue to be those who deny it, based on motivations that remain at best puzzling. Casting proponents of Peak Oil as doom-mongers has been an effective strategy—again, for reasons I find perplexing. (I’ll explore this particular topic in a later post.)

So are we ready for Peak Oil? The answer seems quite clear: no, we are not ready, not by a long shot.

The explanations and information are there for the taking. The problem, as I suggested in my last post, as have others, is that too many of us simply do not think that we have to do without. Either we refuse to believe in limits, or cannot bear to consider the possibility of having to permanently scale back on our demands and expectations.

Our advertising and our media constantly exhort us to seek/get/buy/have more. It’s what we do, and it is by and large what our industries are designed for: provide us with more/more easily/more inexpensively/and better. No complaints there … it’s the essence of growth and progress, but it has taken on a life of its own. We do not permit ourselves the opportunity to step back and consider anything other than how to get more to make life easier today. On principle that’s not an entirely inappropriate expectation.

But too often, when limitations are suggested or imposed, particularly those arising from forces and factors beyond our immediate control, there is an outcry that something must somehow be done by someone in some way so as to address the shortfall. Why there is a shortage or lack of something at normal costs—how it relates to societal interests—is rarely considered.

The oil price hike in the last year or two is a prime example. The right complained that President Obama wasn’t doing enough to lower gasoline prices (while he’s at, I wouldn’t mind if he lowered the price of our daughters’ college tuition, the costs of meals at my favorite restaurant, and ticket prices at Fenway Park), and similar uninformed voices made their case for “drill, baby, drill” with almost no appreciation for the long term implications. Short-sightedness is now a thriving enterprise in some circles!

Peak Oil isn’t designed to cater to those needs. As the coach of “my” New England Patriots is fond of saying: “It is what it is.” And what Peak Oil is—however it manifests itself—is a legitimate “threat” to the ways of life we’ve come to insist upon and simply expect: that we can have as much as we want, whenever we want it, without considering anything else.

As has been noted, oil plays an essential role in almost everything that touches our everyday lives. From the food we eat to the means by which we transport ourselves, our goods, and our services, to what we grow, build, have, own, need, and do, oil is almost always an important element. But the painful truth now and soon is that the ready supply of oil and gas that we almost always take for granted (the occasional price spike notwithstanding) is on its way to becoming not-so-ready. Thinking that we’ll just implement a few crash programs to straighten out that potential mess is a nice thought, but we simply do not have the means to make that happen—not the technological capabilities, not the personnel, not the industries, not the leadership … yet. Clearly, we do not have enough time to do it all with effortless ease and minimal disruptions.

So when Peak Oil happens, what happens? Who must sacrifice? What must be sacrificed? What do we start trimming back on in our homes, our communities, and our businesses? Where exactly will the dominoes tumble?

Few ask those questions; few provide answers. We need more people to ask the questions, and more than just the occasional informed voice to explain what will happen and what must be done.

So for those who prefer to think that whatever changes might result from Peak Oil’s impact won’t be all that significant, consider only for a moment how much we depend on oil and gas for so much of what is in our world, and then try to imagine that anything other than major changes are in the offing once the supply is restricted for any number of reasons! Can’t be done….

For those who view Peak Oil as just another bump in the road to greater prosperity and successes because that’s how it’s always been for us, consider that it’s always been that way for us precisely because of oil! The great cities we’ve built, the lifestyles we’ve fashioned, the industries we’ve created, the toys we own and use … all of that came about because we had inexpensive and plentiful oil at our disposal to make almost all of that happen. Denying that flies in the face of the world we live in.

The false hopes about technology coming to the rescue, and/or human ingenuity and creativity as the answers cannot be counted on. Yes, of course that will be essential to the future we do create, but to just sit back and insist that technology and ingenuity are guaranteed to save the day is a risk we cannot afford to take!

The simplistic arguments that a sharp drop in production and/or price increases means we’ll just find alternatives are wonderful-sounding statements, but empty. What are the specifics? Where does the research money come from? How quickly will these as-yet-undiscovered technologies be created, tested, mass-produced, and then delivered effectively? Who supplies the needed personnel and infrastructure for these magical inventions? If it is such a simple realization for these deniers, why not just produce it all today and save ourselves the effort later on? (Why haven’t they just produced all of this technology already, in anticipation? If they’re that good, then they should have planned for this need.) Deniers of Peak Oil too often make it sound that technological solutions don’t require much more than a flip of the switch, but in the real world, that’s not going to be how it works.

The not-so-clever arguments by oil industry officials (no bias there!) who dispute Peak Oil (Rex W. Tillerson, chief executive of Exxon Mobil: “We’re going to be very forthright in not accepting something that is not completely scientifically proven.” [1]) are just as superficially satisfying as those who blindly proclaim that of course we’ll develop the right technologies somewhere down the road—and just in the nick of time to boot! It would be wonderful if those proclamations and predictions were correct, but can we really afford to leave our entire future to chance? (And regarding the above quote, how many things are ever “completely” scientifically proven? Are all of the processes that Mr. Tillerson’s company utilizes “completely scientifically proven”?)

Making the perfect the enemy of the good may appease shareholders, but it is no more a strategy than crossing our fingers and hoping we’ll find that the entire center of the Earth is one giant pool of oil that will be available early next week. These disingenuous arguments serve short-term interests only, and at some point, short-term demands a reckoning.

This same official also stated that “We don’t oppose alternative energy sources and the development of those. But to hang the future of the country’s energy on those alternatives alone belies reality of their size and scale.” [2] No one is saying this move away from our dependency on oil is going to be a small scale, simple undertaking! So when exactly should we begin: when the “size and scale” magically shrink down to an acceptable and non-profit-interfering level? When might that be? And how much more disruption will we be obliged to endure in the interim?

No nation on Earth possess the technological expertise or capabilities of the United States; yet for all that skill, our oil production peaked nearly four decades ago, and no magic technology has stemmed that tide or located massive quantities of new oil. The fact-free declarations of the deniers too often run headlong into the realities of oil supply, production, and exploration. We need a better approach.

Should we just wait and panic when Peak Oil happens, or do we owe it to ourselves to start planning and transitioning now? Everyone has a stake in how this all plays out….

Of course no one wants to willingly give up a pleasant life now (or, as is the case with the millions struggling through this Recession, give up the hope of better days to come). But when we don’t have the same measure of easily obtained and inexpensive, plentiful oil at our beck and call, we are going to have to do a lot of things differently. Pretending otherwise is a tremendous disservice to all of us and makes it that much harder to cooperatively implement the changes and adaptations needed.

And how daunting must it be for industries of all kinds and sizes to consider that the easy and cheap oil they rely upon to work their machinery or expand their capabilities or transport their personnel and goods and services and all the other roles that oil/gas plays in the everyday business world will soon not be available as much, as often, and as inexpensively? It almost invites complete economic paralysis, but we’re better than that. We’ll have to demonstrate this soon enough. That means we have to understand, plan, and then do.

Yes, having to undertake the changes we’ll likely be obliged to is a daunting prospect. It’s senseless to imagine otherwise. Our lifestyles, industries, infrastructure, recreations, consumptions, production, and transportation will all be affected to varying degrees when we’re confronted with the reality of Peak Oil. But I still believe it’s just as foolish to think that we don’t have the abilities and skill and talent and will to do what must be done to adapt and transition away from our excessive dependency on fossil fuels. (My optimism does not ignore the truth that we’ve got a lot of work to do, and rather quickly.)

This is our opportunity!

Consider this: If I and other proponents are wrong, then all we’ll have done is conserve more resources, advanced technologies and alternative resources sooner than we might otherwise have done, and probably enhanced a sense of community many of us lament has been lost in our thousand-miles-per-hour society. Worse things will happen to us.

It’s nothing more than human nature for people to want to initially disregard or deny any impending, adverse lifestyle or economic changes. And if we do recognize this likelihood, our first tendencies are to consider what we’re going to lose rather than potentially gain or improve. When that becomes your starting point, who wants to continue down that road? It promises not much more than added sacrifice and hardship; and thank you, sir, we’ve had quite enough already.

Change of this potential magnitude is understandably too much for most of us to consider right now, especially absent concrete objectives and plans for how to deal with the onset of Peak Oil. There’s too much still unknown, and the likely disruptions and insufficient preparation/adaptation time is too much to expect most to handle. Better the devil you know. Unfortunately, that’s not going to help.

We have a voice in how this will all play out. Will we choose to use it or not?

Next: Part V

Sources:

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abYNEKrsuMsI&refer=home – Exxon Mobil Says Transition From Oil Is Century Away By Joe Carroll; May 27, 2009 (Bloomberg)
[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/business/energy-environment/08greenoil.html?_r=1 April 8, 2009; Oil Giants Loath to Follow Obama’s Green Lead By JAD MOUAWAD

It remains my hope that with the right level of effort, commitment, vision, understanding, and action (BIG “ifs” of course), we can effect a reasonably non-disruptive transition away from our excessive fossil fuel dependency. It won’t be perfect or struggle-free, but we can take steps to make it easier. At this point, “easier” may be the best we can hope for.

I recognize that there are criticisms and ridicule leveled against the “doomers”—Peak Oil proponents who assert that we are heading for catastrophe. It’s difficult to gain an appreciation for how much of our lives are predicated on the availability of easily obtained and relatively inexpensive oil and gas, and then consider with nothing but sunny optimism how much of our lives will thus of course be impacted when easy and inexpensive are no longer options. I admitted in my last post on this topic that it is a challenge. The fear that we as a society will choose to do nothing but hope for the best leaves us with little leeway to predict anything but ominous outcomes when Peak Oil’s full weight falls upon us.

I vehemently disagree with the snarky, uninformed deniers who smugly claim that this “doom scenario” is in some bizarre manner a source of enjoyment for us. Those kinds of comments do more to tell a tale about an author’s integrity and character than they do about people like me who are trying to inform. It’s almost unimaginable to consider that there are people who absolutely deny we’re going to face challenges of oil supply and production in the face of clearly articulated facts.

Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than had been anticipated; the oil industry itself is relying on fields past their prime, with less skilled help than is needed; more projects are being scuttled for economic reasons and lack of investment funding, and the industry’s own infrastructure is in need of great repair.

Finding oil and gas to replace the world’s fast dwindling reserves is increasingly risky as rigs probe areas once seen as too difficult or too dangerous, and costs are rocketing, which could imperil future supply.
The cost of discovering each new barrel of oil and gas has risen three-fold over the last decade as technology has pushed the frontiers of exploration into ever more remote areas.
As old fields run dry, oil companies are drilling wells in some of the most inhospitable regions, where political, physical, geological, geographical, technical and contractual risks are high…. [1]

(Although the article claims that such efforts are a “remarkable success”, the fact remains we are finding less than we are using every year, as has been the case for many years now.)

When Peak Oil will occur, or what specific factors bring it about, really won’t matter in the end. What does matter is the outcome: less availability, more expensive, more difficult to provide, with demand increasing significantly in developing parts of the world. Bad math….

I’m hard-pressed to understand what Peak Oil and global warming deniers hope to honorably achieve by sowing confusion and doubt where none clearly exists. What fear motivates them to do so, and how callous are they about consequences to all of us? Denial is a powerful tool, but to what end?

For all my optimism, I think we’re too late in the game to effect a completely trouble-free move away from dependency on oil. Changing our habits, our infrastructure, and our economic and industrial way of life is an immense undertaking—one that realistically requires at least a decade or two to have everything in place. We do not have that much time, but we have some.

The sooner we collectively agree on new courses of action (now there’s a gigantic “if” and hope!), the sooner we provide ourselves with the best chance of creating some measure of prosperity and success in a world no longer shaped and fed by unlimited amounts of oil. We have our work cut out for us as it is.

The biggest “if” is how soon we are all willing to engage. If the answer is anything other than “now”, then we will encounter tremendous difficulties as we move away from a fossil fuel resource that simply will not be available to us in the quantities, at the prices, and with the ease we have come to expect.

The vital components of this successful transition depend first and foremost on essential individual traits—characteristics that likewise define our culture and provide guideposts for our future. And in this regard, I am not as optimistic as I’d like to be, but I remain hopeful and still convinced of mankind’s ability to do the right things for the right reasons. We’ve adapted before, and in spectacular fashion. No reason to doubt our capabilities now, but we need to get moving.

The attitudes we bring to this process, the beliefs we’ll continue to hold (and perhaps of more critical importance, the ones we’ll change), will likely make the difference between a “successful” transition to fossil-free ways of life and one of great, unnecessary hardship. What we choose to do now will of course make a difference, as will choosing to do nothing—an admittedly easier path.

We are a nation that does not accept limits on what we can do and be and achieve. In many respects that may be our most beneficial characteristic. But so too can it serve to hamper us when change away from business and life as usual is mandated due to circumstances well beyond our control. Peak Oil is one of those circumstances. We can prepare for it, but we cannot control it.

Ultimately peak oil will not be a geological crisis, not an economic crisis, not a political crisis. Inevitably peak oil will be a global philosophical and psychological crisis. [2]

Our economy and society were first constructed and have been sustained on certain key assumptions and expectations. There is a sense of entitlement many of us carry, one that says that the gratifications we seek and successes we demand are to be fulfilled ceaselessly—preferably with little effort on our part. The “drill, baby, drill” knuckleheaded clamor is only one of many indications that our general approach to gratification is at times one of: “Do, get, have, and then think (maybe). Consequences be damned.” Not particularly admirable or beneficial….

If one were to choose a single word to characterize [what it means to be a 21st-century American], it would have to be more. For the majority of contemporary Americans, the essence of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness centers on a relentless personal quest to acquire, to consume, to indulge, and to shed whatever constraints might interfere with those endeavors. [3]

It’s a remarkably short-term focus that carries distressingly long-term implications.

The hard work of prior generations is not viewed with the same levels of respect it clearly deserves. It’s almost as though our attitude is that that’s what they should have done for us, so that we can now live lives of comfort, pleasure, and fulfillment for whatever needs we feel compelled to gratify in the moment. Prosperity is a reward for effort and commitment and skill and patience. It is not the right so many seem to think it is, and it is most definitely not a continuing guarantee. We are in some ways a lazy society getting lazier by the minute. We want everything fast, quick, cheap, and easy, and we have little appreciation for the hard work that was once our defining trait. That can change! I’m convinced of that; just as I am certain that it must change.

The risk is clear:

Generations that have been trained to want or expect easy, quick, automated abundance will find themselves having to adapt instead to a regime in which everything takes longer and requires more effort; in which there will often not be enough fuel or food to go around. [4]

What happens then? 

I’ll leave you with that thought for now.

To be continued….
Sources:

[1]: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61A28X20100211 – Oil exploration costs rocket as risks rise; Thu, Feb 11 2010 By Christopher Johnson
[2]: http://oilbeseeingyou.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-will-peak-oil-really-mean.html
[3]: Andrew Bacevich from his book: The Limits of Power: The End Of American Exceptionalism, (Metropolitan Books, 2008) as quoted by columnist Rod Dreher: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN-dreher_17edi.ART.State.Edition1.adb331.html – Peak oil is coming, and we’re unready, August 17, 2008
[4]: Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines by Richard Heinberg, p. 127; New Society Publishers, 2007

I mentioned in a recent post (here) that we need to develop different attitudes and beliefs about the onset and impact of Peak Oil. A better understanding of the challenges likely to be faced will be a deciding factor in how effectively we transition away from fossil fuel dependency. It’s going to take a while as it is.

I suppose it’s nothing more than human nature to focus efforts and attention on the problems at hand, and we certainly have enough of them to deal with right now … more than enough! For most of us, just getting by from day-to-day has become a vastly more complex struggle than we could have imagined just a few short years ago. Hope for immediate improvement is tough to come by these days.

Headlines routinely announce the same set of stressful economic and unemployment factors that weigh us all down, and the skirmishes in Congress between feckless Democrats and mindless Republicans who continue to engage in fact-free proclamations while refusing to agree to anything (even their own suggestions! See this great Steve Benen/Rachel Maddow piece) serve to discourage and dishearten more of us by the minute. It’s easy to lament what once was and to legitimately question whether we’ll ever participate in prosperity again.

I can’t imagine there’s a single person who welcomes the news that Peak Oil is likely to impose even more hardships on us if we don’t grab the reins immediately and start planning and doing. It is understandably much easier to ignore or deny it and hope it either goes away or gets “fixed” somehow without any input from us.

For most, Peak Oil remains some vague concept having to do with international supplies or off-shore production of oil, or the Middle East, or something along those lines. We’re “safer” in assuming that someone else is handling that for us. As long as we can drive down the street and put gas in our tanks before we go grocery shopping, and encounter no problems getting what we want and need there, we’re pretty well set for now. Since no one is telling us that Peak Oil is going to strike in the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a pass on adding that concern to already overflowing plates of worries and stresses. Who can blame anyone for thinking this way?

Problems that are likely to unfold over the course of many months and years require a special level and blend of understanding, courage, and capabilities that most of us—and many of our leaders—simply do not possess in abundance. No blame for that … it’s just how it is. Unfortunately, given the wide swath that oil cuts across our industrial, economic, agricultural, transportation, and cultural foundations, we run the risk of being blindsided from several directions simultaneously if we don’t begin giving Peak Oil the consideration it mandates—at least for societies hoping to sustain themselves.

Now there are the expected deniers who issue their platitudes about ingenuity and technology and zillions of barrels of oil here and there which I guess are going to magically appear just in the nick of time, but this cottage industry of obfuscation, misdirection, and disingenuous arguments serve no purpose in the long-range planning we will have to undertake to convert our ways of life away from oil dependency. The seeds of doubt and confusion they sow appear to have no purpose beyond ensuring that monies continue to be spent on business as usual. That’s all fine and well in the short term, and more power to them, but we’re going to pay a price. How steep that price turns out to be will depend on how soon and how effectively all of us start taking steps now to chart a different course by dealing with Peak Oil.

Let’s be clear: Oil and oil production will be with us for years to come—but not forever; and not even that much longer when you get right down to it. We’re not running out of oil soon, or for many years. I don’t argue that we are, nor do any Peak Oil advocates with whom I’m familiar. But we’re going to soon have less available for all the things we’ve come to expect and rely upon, and what we do have will get more expensive, it will take longer to get from there to here, and it will take a lot more effort to make all that happen.

Expecting that we’re all going to click our heels once or twice and then magically—happily—transport ourselves and our entire infrastructure into a world where lack of readily available oil is “no big deal” is one hell of a dream to hang our hopes on.

I’d love to be wrong! Despite the attacks that suggest we peak oil “doomers” thrive on the negativity (like most of their arguments, that one is likewise free of any supporting evidence, but it does make for a great and dismissive sound bite), none of us want to endure hardships any more than anyone else! I love my lifestyle … the terrific summer home by the ocean, the nice cars, the traveling! What person in his or her right mind wants to give that up? The problem is that circumstances well beyond my control are going to impose some changes on that lifestyle, and yours too.

Do you want to be ahead of that curve with some say in how this all plays out, or are you going to cross fingers and toes and just hope … for some thing, some solution, some alternative that will be handled and managed by someone else? It is a choice; not a good one, but it is a choice.

Is it going to be easy, or quick?

No!

Anyone expecting/praying/whatever-ing for a couple of minutes worth of tinkering as being all that’s necessary to fix this problem is in for a hellacious surprise. This is not a challenge that’s going to be solved soon, effortlessly, or by someone else. That truth is not by anyone’s definition the preferred option. It’s just the truth. We can pass along responsibility for doing our part, we can designate others to play our role in planning and then making the changes to our ways of life (traveling, working, producing, transporting, farming, living, consuming, driving, repairing, supplying, building, and all the other aspects of our lives that currently require oil in some capacity or other), but that will just add potential and unnecessary woes. The plates are full.

As this blog progresses I’ll be providing much more detail on how and why Peak Oil will have such a pervasive effect on all of us (given the singular importance of oil to basically everything we do), but the sooner we recognize that a collective effort is our best course of action, the sooner and cleaner will be our transition. Collective means just that: you, me, neighbors, family, friends, local businesses, local government, bigger businesses, bigger governments. No one gets a free pass.

And no one gets a guarantee that by making the changes we need to make we “succeed” in ensuring a prosperous life will be ours as we’ve grown accustomed to expect. The material prosperity we enjoyed not too long ago is not promised us forever. No one wants to hear that message, I know. It’s just another truth we need to come to terms with. (It’s a challenge not to make this all sound so over-the-top depressing that we all just want to jump into the nearest lake. I recognize that and admittedly struggle.)

But I remain an optimist. If we do the things we’ll need to do—consider, plan, research, envision, change—we can create a future that is every bit as rewarding and fulfilling as the ones we’ll leave behind, and maybe even a better one. But it doesn’t happen if we don’t make it happen. There’s a great satisfaction in playing a role in your own success and prosperity, and this challenge is no different. That is my hope….

There’s no reason why our ingenuity and our creativity and our will and our desire and our efforts and our technological savvy won’t provide us with successes and comforts and happiness. But we’ll give ourselves a chance at that—in ways we probably cannot envision right now—only if we start paying attention to an issue that gets far too little of it given the prominent role it plays in your life and mine. Peak Oil is not going to go away.

Access to readily available and regularly supplied inexpensive oil is going to become an issue that affects everyone. It’s just not an option for us much longer. We’re going to have to step out and do things differently.

Let’s start recognizing the challenge for what it, and begin thinking and planning for Peak Oil’s arrival and impact. It’s going to show up anyway … might as well be as ready as we can be.

Next: Part III

I’d like to shift gears just a bit in these next few posts and discuss some “behavioral” perspectives and considerations related to how we’ll need to deal with Peak Oil—a follow-up to one of my initial posts (here).

First up: Just a few of the things we know for certain about oil production, taken from an earlier post (here):

• Just 20 years ago, 15 oilfields were able to supply at least one million barrels of oil per day (the world now uses approximately 85 mbpd). Now there are only 4 such fields. [1]
• The world began using more oil than it was finding nearly thirty years ago. Nothing has changed since. In 2009 we were on pace to discover nearly 20 billion barrels of oil. Sounds great up until the moment you learn that the world uses approximately 30 billion barrels per year, and that roughly 80% of the Earth’s population is just starting to use energy as we do. [2] China and India, among others, are making their ambitions clear.
• A substantial majority of petroleum geologists agree that about 90% of all the conventional, recoverable oil on the planet has now been located. [3] Most of the Earth’s favorable geological formations conducive to oil formation have been identified.
• Here in the United States, we reached peak oil production almost forty years ago, at about 9.5 million barrels per day. We’re down to about 5 million now. We’re not alone.
• One third of global oil supply comes from 20 large fields—all discovered more than thirty years ago. Production rates for each of those 20 fields have now peaked. [4]
• To offset depletion in existing oil fields, Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency has stated that we will need the capacity equivalent of four new Saudi Arabias by 2030 to counter that decline, just to keep up with existing demand [5].

Given that we’re not finding any truly gigantic new oil fields, and unconventional resources (here) and (here) aren’t exactly a solution, we have some supply and production issues to contend with.

Our infrastructure (roads, bridges, train tracks, water and sewer pipes, power lines, etc.) does not exist in current form without the ready availability of inexpensive oil. Indeed, our modern society was created and is sustained in large part because we have that readily available, inexpensive oil.

We’re perfectly free to ignore these facts entirely (this is not exactly an ideal time to be spelling out more potential economic and societal woes). In the alternative, we can choose absolute panic over these conditions; or, we can decide to dwell in the vast middle ground where we acknowledge these facts and plan intelligently and carefully as we work to rebuild our economic ways of life.

We have choices now … more than we’ll likely have when Peak Oil is upon us in full force. Do we seize the opportunities now, or do we wait with fingers crossed?

To rely on “the sentimental belief that the things we fear will never really happen.” [6] is not much of a plan.

Hoping that Peak Oil’s onset and its unfolding impact will take a lot longer than we think may be someone’s strategy, but it cannot be ours.

What we do have to consider is this: In light of current and projected oil production factors, what happens when there’s not enough to meet all of our demands, to say nothing of those of every other nation—including the many countries seeking more growth and prosperity? What sacrifices will we be called upon to make? Which products will no longer be as readily available? Which services? Who decides? What will be decided? And how will we respond when decisions are taken out of our hands?

The truth is that this is not going to happen “soon.” But it will happen soon enough … later this year? 2012? 2015? 2020? Depending on the source, those are all reasonable estimates as to when we are going to begin to feel the irreversible and powerful impact of Peak Oil on our everyday lives. If you’re a betting person, perhaps you’ll take the long view and decide we’re 8 – 10 years away, so why worry now?

Peak Oil is not an event that’s just going to show up one morning several months or years down the road. We’ll soon start seeing signs that increasing demand is crashing against the wall of declining availability. Prices will rise, for one, and the effects and consequences will ripple through our economy, just as oil and gasoline price hikes have always done. Perhaps we won’t feel the real first bite for some time after prices begin to climb, but it won’t take long for the effects to begin filtering through our economy and our ways of life. Things are going to change long before we reach the stage where Peak Oil is clearly recognized as drastically affecting almost … well, everything!

Technological advancement is a wonderful attribute, and a hallmark of our nation’s prosperity and greatness. But blind reliance that somehow, some way, and at some point we’ll just find the “right” solutions is placing the livelihood and well-being of hundreds of millions of people on a wing and a prayer. I’m already on record as being a proponent of optimism over pessimism, but reality often dictates that we anchor our plans on what is now the truth rather than what we’d like or hope it to be at some undefined point in the future.

Finding the right technologies or alternative energy sources that could be implemented everywhere, efficiently, effectively, and quickly enough to mitigate any decline prompted by Peak Oil would be a magnificent statement about our ingenuity and creativity. But right now, that belongs in the “miracle” category and we cannot afford to place our hopes on Divine Intervention.

If we don’t start planning several years ago, we’re going to eventually have some problems. Trouble is, we don’t seem to be in much of a hurry to get anything done right now, either. That must change. We must change.

We can choose to fear what Peak Oil may do to our society and our ways of life. That’s certainly an option. But so too do we have the choice to view the challenges of Peak Oil as opportunities to fashion new successes for ourselves, new definitions of prosperity, new ideals of community, and new ways of projecting humanity into a future of hope and progress. The definitions and examples will indeed be different than those crafted as a result of the many benefits of readily available crude oil and its countless products, but there is no reason to lament that those descriptions will be less worthy or satisfying. We own that choice, too.

While we may fervently wish for a return to “things as they were not too long ago” and/or “business as usual,” the stern truth is that those options are no longer available to us. This Great Recession has compounded the difficulties of ever hoping to return to what we had perceived as a “normal” state of economic and civic affairs. Peak Oil will drive home that message for those who choose not to acknowledge it now. Adapt we must, and the sooner we begin the less imposing adaptation will be. No guarantees of course; but doing nothing guarantees an eventual measure of hardship we should not have to face.

But that is only a harsh sentence imposed on our society if we choose to treat it as such. Change will not be easy, given the magnitude of what we will all have to accept and undertake (see this and this post also) . But we do own the choice of taking a longer-term view of our individual and collective futures and deciding that it will be one of hope, fulfillment, and prosperity—different though the definitions may be. It’s up our leaders, and it’s up to us working in tandem with them. Lots of choices….

I’m going to devote the next few posts to discussing this in greater detail. Awareness and understanding of why we must begin planning now—and why we need to develop different attitudes and beliefs about Peak Oil’s arrival—will go a long way to determining how well we negotiate the challenging journey through Peak Oil’s unending influence on life as we know it, and business as usual.

Next: Part II

Sources

[1]: http://www.canada.com/story+glimpse+future+chapters/1333692/story.html ; The oil story and a glimpse at future chapters – Ray Grigg, Courier-Islander February 27, 2009
[2] http://www.oildecline.com/
[3] ibid
[4] Earth Policy Institute: Is World Oil Production Peaking? Lester R. Brown www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update67_data2.htm
[5] Peak Oil News (http://www.aspo-usa.com/) November 12, 2008, citing:  WORLD NEEDS FOUR NEW SAUDI ARABIAS, WARNS IEA  – Robin Pagnamenta Energy and Environment Editor; The (London) Times November 12, 2008 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/
[6] Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, courtesy of http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN-dreher_17edi.ART.State.Edition1.adb331.html – Rod Dreher: Peak oil is coming, and we’re unready; August 17, 2008

There’s likely to be little disagreement that for most of us, the current economic, social, and political issues and conflicts we’re now mired in are the most challenging set of conditions we’ve ever encountered. Even those relatively untouched by the hardships (are there any such people?) are no doubt weary of the trials and tribulations of our economy. It’s safe to assume that almost no one is looking for more calamities. Doom and gloom prophecies aren’t likely to captivate many followers.

“. . . the consequences would be unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would tip the world into a generations-long economic depression. Millions would lose their jobs as industry implodes. Farm tractors would be idled for lack of fuel, triggering massive famines. Energy wars would flare. And carless suburbanites would trudge to their nearest big box stores, not to buy Chinese made clothing transported cheaply across the globe, but to scavenge glass and copper wire from abandoned buildings” (from Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Paul Salopek’s 2006 report—as published by the Chicago Tribune—describing the consequences of Peak Oil. Quoted by Matt Savinar at http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/)

Not exactly an uplifting state of affairs, is it? If we all choose to do absolutely nothing about Peak Oil, and/or ignore and deny it completely, then I have little doubt that somewhere down the road that scenario might very well be the one we’re all confronted with. That’s ugly … and avoidable.

We should also recognize that there is a broad gulf between here and “there,” an expanse which affords us abundant opportunities to not only address the challenges we’ll face by decreasing oil production and increasing world-wide demand, but also to create entire new industries and ways of life well beyond what we may now envision. I’d like to just plant that seed for now.

Peak Oil need not be a catastrophe.

Perhaps the most elegant description I’ve come across is this one, courtesy of author Mick Winter in his book Peak Oil Prep: “Peak Oil simply means that oil resources on the planet are finite and that there will come a point in time when one day less oil is being extracted than previously. And the following day even less. And so on, no matter how much exploration is done, no matter how efficient the new extraction technologies that are developed.” A simple geological premise.

What it means is that just as we have throughout history, we’re going to have to adapt, to make changes which in the abstract seem both incongruous as measured against our current definitions of prosperity, and overly daunting.

The truth is that we would not be where we are now had our forefathers at various stages in our past decided that society as it stood must remain as is, and that opportunities for growth and advancement were choices easily declined. If we are open to becoming better informed about Peak Oil, then adaptation is more easily attainable. Not easy, of course, just easier than if we choose to ignore and deny. Choices….

As this blog progresses, I’ll discuss in much greater detail what those peak oil-related challenges will be. That requires speaking some truths we may prefer avoiding. But if we can all begin to understand from a personal standpoint the kinds of inevitable changes Peak Oil’s presence will impose, the better prepared we’ll be to accept them, to recognize opportunities rather than be paralyzed into denial (or worse, panic), and to move forward individually and collectively toward fashioning a kind of future we can all enjoy. It surely won’t be pain-free given how dependent we all are on inexpensive oil to fuel our ways of life, but it certainly need not be the Apocalypse, either. We’ll all have a say, and we’ll all have roles to play. Opportunity, or Disaster?

While acknowledging that I’m tiptoeing along a thin line between prophecies of doom and a hopeful if idealistic vision for the future (I’ve always believed that optimism is a better choice than pessimism), I think it’s imperative (and honest) to express a legitimate concern in the face of Peak Oil: Life as we know it will change. As much as we all fervently want the opportunities for growth and prosperity to just return to the way they once were, Peak Oil is going to have a pronounced effect on those expectations, and sooner than we’d like. (I’ll be devoting a lengthy series of posts to explain.)

A major reason why we may feel blindsided by the onset of peak oil’s consequences is that Americans in particular do not like hearing “no,” and they surely don’t like suggestions that unlimited growth is no longer an option. That’s served us quite well throughout history, but it’s not absolute dictum. Our way of life has been premised on the beliefs that technology will always save the day because our ingenuity, work ethic, resources, and talent will create/provide whatever it is we need to sustain an unending lifestyle of convenience and comfort. There’s an underlying sense of entitlement and expectation that may not always be in our best interests. We may be surprised at how Peak Oil’s onset interferes with those entrenched beliefs.

Any notions that unlimited prosperity (as we’ve all come to characterize it) is no longer an available objective won’t be received very well. Most peak oil proponents will tell you that this is a common and frequent obstacle in their quest to inform. It’s a daunting burden to contend with. The media’s inability or unwillingness to give due consideration to the topic has not helped, and there’s no doubt that many base their decisions on what is or is not important by what their preferred media tells them is important … or not. An unpleasant truth, but one we must acknowledge. And another truth is that we see very little from our government or business leaders by way of explanation or even discussion. The topic of Peak Oil often seems radioactive.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, sure as hell I don’t like hearing about anticipated tribulations brought on by peak oil. My wife and I enjoy a very nice lifestyle with some very, very nice material trappings. I’m not anxious to give any of it up, and I am less than thrilled at the idea that what we’ve enjoyed so far simply will not be available to us going forward (which is not to say I expect any of these peak oil-related changes soon. I’m just firmly convinced that they’ll be upon us much, much sooner than we anticipate, and unless we do start planning for them now, we will be woefully ill-prepared. It doesn’t have to be that way.)

Life as we’ve known it may be different in the years to come, but there’s no reason why “different’ can’t be prosperous and fulfilling, too. “Success” is not limited to the examples from our past. The truth is we’ve always changed, we’ve always redefined success and prosperity, and there’s no reason to believe we won’t do more of that in the days to come. We’ll have increasing opportunities to revise and expand those terms as Peak Oil prompts changes in our ways of life—and it will.

There is absolutely no reason why we cannot all seek “larger” lives to lead even in the face of Peak Oil’s challenges. “Larger” can be different, too. It can also mean more than we might think.

I’ll return to this theme, because I believe our attitude and approach to what we’ll need to do will play a crucial part in determining the ultimate course of our society. It’s one of the primary reasons why I’ve started this blog. But for now, just a seed or two.

If we want a future we can live with, and a sustainable future we can pass on to our children with pride, then we’re all going to have to learn how to become more responsible in all its shadings. (Me, too!) We’ll still have the chance, as John Maynard Keynes once proposed, “to live wisely and agreeably and well.” Another choice we own. I hope this blog helps us find ways to live wisely, and well….

Next: An Introduction To Oil Use In The United States