Peak Oil Matters

When I first began this blog, my intention was to first (I hope) educate readers about the main issues of Peak Oil, offer commentary when necessary, and then devote most of my time exploring in non-technical terms Peak Oil’s impact in our lives. It’s time to begin doing that.

(And let me preface this entire series by declaring that I’m not a technical guy: how much crude oil is needed to manufacture all of these items, what the process is, whether substitutes might be available, etc., are all beyond my interest and expertise. I want to keep this simple, for me as much as anyone! I have no plans to get up to anyone’s eyeballs in manufacturing or processing details. I want to provide readers with some general themes and ideas … some food for thought. Fill in the details as much, or as little, as you wish on any of the scores of topics I’ll now be covering. Some discussions will span several posts; others will offer up a nugget or two for consideration before I move on to another topic. All of these posts are designed to do one thing above all else: get you to understand that Peak Oil is not an abstract concept. It is real, it will affect each and every one of us, and it will keep affecting each and every one of us from soon until forever….)

I have discussed in several posts already the issues of transportation and infrastructure as they relate to Peak Oil, and the urgent need for all of us to reflect on all that must—and will—change when Peak Oil is fully upon us. Without an established infrastructure designed to support commerce and our ways of life without fossil fuels as the driving source of energy, any hopes we have for continued growth (not that that’s a guarantee even with an appropriate infrastructure) are by the boards.

Peak Oil isn’t going to just affect some of us some of the time in some ways. Peak Oil is going to impact all of us—substantially—and irrevocably. Life will be different, and that won’t change. The good ‘ole days will remain the good ‘ole days. There will be no going back.

There is no special place where this must begin. So let’s jump in with a topic of interest to many of us. Let’s talk sports. (This is one of those topics much too broad to cover in just one post, so I’ll just begin with a few general ideas and considerations, and will return to this subject in future posts.)

It’s easy enough to mention the fact that footballs, and helmets, and cleats, and basketballs and what have you are all made with crude oil as an essential component. It’s also safe to assume that once we begin dealing with curtailed availability of fossil fuels, some needs will have lower priority than others. Ambulances will probably have access to fossil fuel-based crude oil (gasoline) before Spalding or Wilson get the fossil fuel-based crude oil they need to make basketballs and footballs. Obviously there will be ripple effects across the industry when this happens, and the end users (from the junior leaguers and the neighborhood kids all the way up to the professionals) will also have some problems to contend with: either the products will become less available, or they will become prohibitively expensive for many along the chain of users. What happens?

Ever try dribbling a basketball that no longer bounces? How easy and inexpensive will it be to replace that? What happens when high school sports programs with limited funds as it is have to replace cleats and helmets and other accessories and their prices have doubled, or tripled, or the helmets and cleats are simply not being manufactured any longer on a scale sufficient enough to meet demand? What happens then?

Let’s also take a broader view. How do teams (high school, college, the pros) deal with travel issues and schedules when gas is much too expensive to enable teams to transport their players even short distances, or when air travel is severely curtailed and wildly expensive because not enough jet fuel is being processed to meet demand (and airports are shuttered because air travel has diminished markedly*), or when the fans cannot afford to put the gasoline in their vehicles that in the past allowed them to attend the games without a second thought?

What happens when half, or a third, or one-tenth the number of fans can afford to attend games because budgeting all that money to drive to an in- or out-of-state stadium no longer makes financial sense? Pure supply and demand: when demand continues and supply is reduced, prices go up. Decisions are then made about where to allocate funds. Does a trip across the state to attend a Red Sox game make more sense than paying for your children’s basic needs for the next few months?

Where will the revenue to pay players come from when the majority of fans are no longer traveling to see the games either because limited gas supplies are now being allocated or it’s simply become too expensive for “frivolous” trips? How do owners continue to fund their vast operations (office staff, marketing, scouting staffs, minor leagues, utility services for the stadiums and training facilities, and on and on it goes)? What happens to the vendors and other suppliers when the majority of fans just stop attending … permanently?

For all their current revenue, what happens to the Red Sox or Yankees when they are scheduled to travel to Tampa Bay, or Texas, or to the West Coast, and it costs a small fortune in fuel costs alone for charter planes? What rail services currently exist that offer a practical alternative? Exactly how far out does the ripple effect extend?

No organization, no group of individuals no matter what their financial status, and no industry that currently utilizes fossil fuels to any extent will escape the effects of Peak Oil. For all the magic and excitement and joy of athletic events, sports will suffer the impact of Peak Oil every bit as much (if not more) than many or most other industries.

What happens then?

* See, for example: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/3018604/aviation_after_peak_oil_is_there_a.html?cat=15

Hello, and welcome to my new blog. Thank you for stopping by.

While I expect and plan to discuss other matters of import from time to time and as appropriate, this is first and foremost a blog about Peak Oil. My intent is to share information culled from various sources and then discuss the impact peak oil will have on our everyday lives.

For those unfamiliar with the term, Peak Oil is most often explained as the point when the maximum rate of oil extraction is reached because of technical and geological limitations, with a ceaseless global production decline thereafter. If we’re not at the maximum production levels now (facts would indicate we are), we will be in the not-too-distant future. At this moment, we have absolutely nothing in place to replace the vast amount of energy we derive from the tens of billions of barrels of oil used annually.

Let me state at the outset that I am not an energy or economic expert. I am likewise not a geologist or engineer; my professional and educational background does not suggest that I am “qualified” as a peak oil expert. I understand some will use that against me … but common sense, I hope, still counts for something. Having issued my disclaimer, I am nonetheless much more than just a casual observer. Not an expert, to be sure, but knowledgeable enough.

I first came across the concept of Peak Oil about a year ago, and since then have steadily immersed myself in the facts, opinions, claims, and observations of both its proponents and opponents. I am, in the end, a firm believer in peak oil’s basic premise: we have reached or will soon reach the point where we simply cannot and will not produce any more oil than we already have. However, I don’t think the sky is falling … yet. (But a steady decline will follow soon enough.)

We cannot effectively deal with a problem if we don’t understand how it will affect us, and relatively few understand the magnitude of oil’s influence and presence in their everyday lives. It’s not usually a topic of everyday conversation, so no need to feel as though you’ve been missing anything! But almost everything that sustains or assists us has oil as a basic component: food (fertilizers and transportation), furnishings, cosmetics, plastics … the list of oil-based products is almost endless. There are literally hundreds of thousands of them. Life as we know it does not run without oil … and that’s going to create some challenges for us.

I’d like to do my part to help increase awareness and understanding. That preparation is one of the best ways to deal with inevitable changes.

Peak oil is NOT about running out of oil. Those who dispute the concept invariably—and inaccurately—assert this. It’s a poor attempt to discredit those who are attempting in good faith to help others understand the issues and potential consequences.

I have no doubt that oil will be around for several decades to come. There are still hundreds of billions of barrels in the ground (although quality may be a serious factor, among other related challenges). How easily and inexpensively we get at the oil, extract it, refine it, and then utilize and distribute it to meet increasing demand are entirely different matters, however. Those are the core issues of Peak Oil.

Some who dispute Peak Oil’s looming impact share legitimate critiques, while others strain credulity in their wild-eyed denials and disingenuous claims. I’ll discuss those differing viewpoints and help you understand both sides so that you in turn can make an informed assessment about what we need to do.

I do not want to believe in peak oil for many reasons. For one, I usually find the topic quite depressing. Every informational piece or essay seems more disturbing than the last. I hope every proponent is wrong twice over, but I am not optimistic on that score. I find no solace or benefits in promoting doom and gloom scenarios, so I’m aiming to provide a different perspective about what we’re all going to be dealing with. I’ll leave the heavy-duty technical explanations to those better-qualified than me.

I like our way of life, and am dismayed that it may soon change forever—in quite dramatic ways (not that it hasn’t already). Soon doesn’t necessarily mean “soon” as we are accustomed to using that term, but it’s only a few short years before industry and lifestyles really change. It’s important that we understand why that is.

Let me also state that I am definitely not the peak oil movement’s poster child.

I’m an American consumer through and through, but/and yes, a political and social liberal. To our teens’ never-ending annoyance, we recycle religiously. Nearly every one of the seeming seven million light bulbs in our two homes is an energy-saving one. I installed them all myself. But that’s pretty much it for now.

We own two very nice, new luxury automobiles—one an SUV. We have a terrific second home a short walk from the ocean; less than an hour’s drive from our home in the ‘burbs of Boston. It takes a bus trip, two subway trips, a commuter rail trip, another bus trip at the tail end, and a several hundred yard walk thereafter for us to get to our beach house via public transportation … about 3 hours start to finish if we schedule it right, and that’s not counting the brutal walk up our very long and very steep hill when we return home.

We don’t make that trip … yet. In the summer heat, luggage and supplies get heavy, and quickly. We drive. Often. Always. Sometimes we make two round trips in the same day. Most times we take at least two if not all 3 vehicles (the third belongs to our 3 teenagers. A fourth—car, not teenager—will soon make its appearance in our driveway). We go to our summer home a lot between May and October.

We’ve traveled a fair amount, have lots of neat household toys, and in general have enjoyed a very nice lifestyle in recent years. I do not recite this to boast about what a great life we have, which we admittedly do—none of which I take credit for. We are indeed very, very lucky, and we know it. But I also understand that we won’t be donating or selling any of our possessions in the near or not-so-near future.

Peak Oil idealism often clashes with financial and family realities above ground—part of my dilemma as a peak oil advocate.

I share this to demonstrate at least in part that I am not a bug-eyed, tree-hugging, live off the fat-a-tha-land robe-wearing vegan anxious to shower everyone with liberal doom and gloom tidings while extolling how my family has shed all of its material possessions and has now learned to grow our own food by raising goats and corn on our front lawn and is using leaves and grass clippings to make our clothing while harvesting fire flies to store electricity and discarded branches to heat our animal-skin tent—and then either shaming or frightening you into doing the same. (Sorry, but you’ll have to look elsewhere for that.)

I have many selfish reasons to challenge both the veracity and inevitably of peak oil, and would much prefer that my pleasant, unremarkable suburban life continue undisturbed,  as is. None of that matters. Peak Oil is unforgiving that way. Denial is just … denial. Not particularly useful in the long run, but a wonderful tool of ignorance. It can no longer be one of our options.

So I’m writing this blog to share some ideas and information—or at least enlighten, so that the eventual challenges and problems we’ll have to confront are not all quite the surprise they will otherwise be. Peak oil does matter. We need to understand how, and why. Sooner would be best.

Call it a sense of obligation. I know some things; not necessarily a lot, but some things. I think others will benefit from that knowing, even if they refuse to believe it right now, or for even quite a while. That’s okay. I’ll offer what I have to offer, and leave it to you to decide what to do with it, if anything. No agenda. No strings. No shouting. Just some things to think about.

In my next post, we’ll take a look at some of the facts and considerations that cause many experts to believe we have now reached peak oil—giving you a more specific introduction to this issue. I’ll follow with an examination of the counter-arguments, and we’ll go from there….

I hope you’ll visit again, and share some thoughts, observations, and yes, even criticisms. It can only help us all find ways to treat the reality of peak oil as an opportunity and not a catastrophe. That’s a choice we all own.