Peak Oil Matters

Although here in the Boston area we couldn’t offer definitive proof that it’s winter (a few single digit wind chill days aside)—given that after a surprise few inches of snow here on Halloween weekend, our next accumulation of snow (all of two inches or so) didn’t occur until mid-January …  with just a couple of trivial “storms” since then along with some very nice, mild temperatures such as yesterday’s near-60 degrees—‘tis the season for winter getaways.

Family and business obligations serve as our excuses for upcoming travel. The first trip is to DC, but at the end of February we’ll spend 5 days in Orlando.

That prospect, like most other plans these days, got me thinking about what happens a few years down the road when travel requirements might still be part of at least some portion of the population—business or pleasure.

Both of our trips entail a seven or eight mile drive to and from Boston’s Logan Airport (not a big deal if you avoid the rush-hour-parking-lot-on-the-highway experience) and then round trip (nonstop) flights to both of our destinations. A rental car awaits us on our DC trip, corporate transportation in Orlando.

We figure the fares total about $1500.00 for my wife and I. It’s possible that two of our children will join us on the DC trip, so there’s the potential for added costs.

The nice thing is that we have a number of flight options available at the moment. Both trips afford us multiple nonstop options to and from our destinations, along with a number of other options via connecting flights.

The airline industry, battered though it may be, nonetheless generates tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue. That means a lot of employees, suppliers, suppliers’ employees, airports, airport employees and countless others up and down the supply and service chain depend on daily flights to feed their families and pay their bills. Warmer winter weather down South is usually sufficient incentive all by itself!

As will be the case for us, air travel usually includes hotel stays and some other transportation needs. Travel is indeed a big business. Aside from the airline and airline-related personnel and suppliers mentioned above, restaurants and retailers likewise depend on airline-delivered tourists and business travelers to help pad their bottom lines.

One issue that seems fairly obvious to me is that since no one has yet figured out how to fly planes on anything other than jet fuel—at least commercially and on a mass scale—what happens when refineries decrease the supplies of jet fuel because Peak Oil necessitates basic changes in the allocation and supply of crude oil and its by-products? [Tom Whipple wrote a piece on that very subject just last week.]

Supply and demand operates in the airline industry just as it does most other places in our increasingly global economy. So when demand remains as is, but supplies are harder to come by or much more expensive, what happens then?

How much business planning has even been considered to date, let alone implemented to any degree?

When we start brushing up against the limits of oil production (and I believe we already have) and are left scrounging around for less than ideal substitutes as the years go by, what happens to all of the winter tourist travels to warmer locales? What’s our Plan B?

What gets prioritized and why? Which business industries will insist upon travel priorities and actually get what they need? Who will be making those determinations? How will they and their travel planners deal with fewer flights, fewer hotels, fewer transportation, and fewer dining options?

What happens to business conferences [see my 2011 post on that topic here]. What adaptations and transitions will be required of and from businesses from the small local to the mega-giant internationals when travel and transportation needs are restricted? How quickly does all this planning fall into place if we’re not already starting now?

What happens when even more smaller airports shut down when diminished supply cuts into current demand?

And given the incredible shortsightedness our Congressional leaders routinely display, what transportation alternatives will be in place that won’t prove to be infinitely more inconvenient at best?

What happens when your children now living on an opposite coast are no longer afforded the same reasonable and reasonably-priced options to visit you? Now, booking flights is as simple a process as logging on and ordering up a flight. What happens when there aren’t as many flights, or the remaining ones aren’t as affordable, or conveniently located and scheduled because jet fuel prices have shot the through as a result of basic supply and demand constraints? My oldest friend’s daughter (my godchild) now lives in Colorado. How often will she be able to visit with her siblings and parents here on the East Coast when that travel shoe drops?

Of course, we could just come to a conclusion that jet fuel must remain a refinery priority, and the countless other industries relying on their piece of the refined oil product pie will have to take a number and wait their turn? Volunteers? Doubtful.

And what of all the related transportation services dependent on all these flights: rental cars, limos, taxis, hotels, restaurants, airport gift shops and the like? What happens to them, and their employees, and their suppliers? What kind of plans have been discussed in the boardrooms?

How many employees in each of those industries, each individual business establishment, and each spouse or partner or child dependent on each one of those countless employees might be adversely impacted when those businesses start to feel the serious pinch of declining energy supplies? We’ve already gotten a good taste of how our economy gets hammered by poor business environments … what happens when a failure to plan for alternatives leaves with us poor business and economic environments as the norm?

And what of the ripple effect?

What happens when this air travel decline is extended to hotels and rental cars and all the rest; when rental cars are either much more costly and/or there are less of them to begin with? What happens when the preferred hotels have downsized because business and tourist travel has declined?

Nothing escapes the reach of declining fossil fuel availability, and there is nothing on the horizon which suggests that any substitutes currently in place are anywhere near as plentiful, affordable, or energy efficient as good ‘ol crude oil.

The resource agenda for business leaders
To thrive in an era of higher and more volatile resource prices, companies will need to pay greater attention to resource-related issues in their business strategies. The goal must be to improve a company’s understanding of how resources will affect profits, produce new opportunities for growth and disruptive innovation, create new risks, generate competitive asymmetries, and change the regulatory context. [1]

It won’t happen all at once. Slow leaks are the more likely scenarios played out across countless industries. But if we’re not thinking about these possibilities now, or getting better ideas about what changes will be sure to occur and what options might be available to us as this years-long process unfolds, we’re not giving ourselves much of a chance.

I believe the top three challenges to making progress on solutions are: 1) a lack of public and policy maker knowledge on these issues, and strong resistance to understanding and believing that such a profound threat to everything that many of us hold so dear–our big houses, automobile-centered lifestyles, frequent air travel, access to consumer goods from around the world– is close at hand; 2) very strong vested interests that will oppose changes in their industries and how they do business; and 3) our amazing lack of preparation for what we are facing, after investing in a built environment, food production system, transportation system, and overall economy that is so heavily reliant on cheap and plentiful oil. [2]

Thinking about and planning for these likelihoods before they become monumental problems might not be a bad idea….

Sources:

[1] https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/ghost.aspx?ID=/Energy_Resources_Materials/Strategy_Analysis/Mobilizing_for_a_resource_revolution_2908; Mobilizing for a resource revolution by Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson – January 2012
[2] http://countercurrents.org/cardoni230110.htm; Dealing With Peak Oil by Salvatore Cardoni & Dr. Brian Schwartz – 01.23.10

If we focus on trying to wean ourselves from dependence on oil, we can do it.
No, it won’t be easy–kicking an addiction never is. Yes, it might lead to some people eventually switching jobs or being slightly less fantastically wealthy (oil industry executives). And, yes, it will require some lifestyle and philosophical changes (ditto). But some of those changes will eventually be positive, not negative.
And, done intelligently, kicking our Middle Eastern oil addiction will also lead to the development of vast, exciting new jobs, companies, and industries–industries that we own and control and that will ultimately employ and enrich millions of Americans…..
We’ve had almost a half-century to prepare for this situation, and we haven’t done jack. If we remain in denial, fighting to preserve the status quo, a transition of Middle Eastern oil will ultimately be forced on us. And it’s hard to see why we would ever want that.
So it’s time we focused on this problem. And it’s time we did what any individual or company focused on fixing a long-term problem would do: Start by developing an intelligent long-term plan. [1]

Creating and disseminating an executable, unambiguous and widely adopted vision with supporting goals is one of the first steps to successful goal setting and implementation for any organization. The more complex the initiative and the larger the organization, the more important the creation and adoption of a shared vision becomes. [2]

Both quotes above echo themes I’ve been promoting since my first post more than two years ago. Addressing concerns and the challenges we face now by promoting ideas and policies designed to get us to the next election is not enough, and we should not for one moment be content with this strategy. Feckless Democrats and mind-numbingly narrow-minded Republicans serve no useful purpose, and we should all work to make sure that our elected leaders share the Vision we create for our future, and that they will abide by the directives we establish to make that our reality.

The challenges Peak Oil and Global Warming impose on us demand nothing less. Leadership has been almost entirely absent, and we’re past the point where we can wait through one or two more election cycles to get what we need. So far, we’ve gotten too much of the leadership we’ve deserved, and so there is responsibility on our parts to become more involved and knowledgeable about what takes place in the world outside our front door. Leaving others entirely in charge is no longer a viable option. The sooner we come to grips with that, the better our chances for the future most of us still hope to create.

Those themes are among the guiding tenets of what I’ll be proposing as this blog evolves, as I first suggested here.

As time passes, we’ll have fewer resources at our disposal to make the great changes we’re destined to make. Accordingly, we cannot afford to waste more now. We clearly have to find ways to move beyond the soul-crushing partisanship and the idiotic battles we wage to preserve ideologies at the expense of this great nation. Putting ourselves further behind cannot be a guiding strategy any longer. It never was, and is less so now.

So too must many of us come to accept that a blind, stubborn, and/or arrogant insistence on having now what once was is not the path forward either. Certainly it is more appealing and psychologically easier, given that it requires less of a (or no) commitment and effort on our part. We cannot do that to ourselves and our children, for one. And the uselessness of Congressional officials has made it abundantly clear that ceding all authority to them is a pointless exercise on its best days. We should be far more embarrassed than we are. We need to move beyond that, as well. Finger-pointing cannot be in the playbook, either.

In truth, the future could be unrecognizably harder than today in as little as 20 years. To reject this real possibility is to be willfully biased toward a bright future. Just because I warn of a possible future of hardship does not mean that I reject the notion that we could pull through the transition ahead in glorious fashion to a splendid shiny future for all. In fact, I’d love to see this happen, and I’d love it if we find a way around all my worries. But given the scale of our challenges, we would be foolish to assume that this path will materialize.
Assuming that a high-tech future will naturally unfold on the back-side of this curve is dangerous.
But for us to pretend that we are not stressing the ecosystem on a multitude of fronts at a scale never before seen in this world is irresponsible. It really is no wonder that we have a sense of unraveling. The future is unwritten, and the recent past may not be a good     template for the near future. We must accept that we face in the decline of fossil fuels the mother of all problems for humanity, and that past success has been against the backdrop of cheap and abundant energy. An unfamiliar phase awaits. [3]

The evidence of a warming planet and diminishing fossil fuel supplies are everywhere. What’s not at all clear are the motivations which support the destructive strategy of denial (although Naomi Klein had a brilliant piece on this recently—one to which I’ll be devoting considerable time to in the next few weeks.) Changes are going to force adaptations on our part. We can either lead by making intelligent, rational choices for the long term, or be at the mercy of changes for which we’ve instead chosen to be foolishly unprepared.

One could go on. The point is that the way we live together now, the way we govern ourselves, the way we arrange our physical spaces and our commerce, the way we do economics and measure prosperity—all these have to be changed in creative ways if we want to achieve the goal of sustainable prosperity. All these changes require … wait for it … innovation. Innovations in the way we think, interact, and structure our lives require just as much imagination, intelligence, persistence, and funding as innovations in technology. [4]

We buy fire insurance for our homes even though the likelihood of ever needing it are exceedingly small. The National Fire Protection Association reports that approximately 400,00 house fires occurred per year in the last half of this past decade. The U.S. Census Bureau reports there are more than 90 million single detached and mobile homes in this country, and 40 million other types of housing units. The percentage of homes requiring such coverage is thus exceedingly small, on the order of about four-thousandths of a percent if I did the math correctly (odds aren’t good, but regardless, the number is small!)

We weigh the risks and decide nonetheless that it is one we cannot and will not chance. Global warming is happening, and the quantity and quality of fossil fuel reserves available to us will not meet demand in the years to come. Much better odds (almost a guarantee) of dealing with the varied and overwhelming consequences, yet we are doing almost nothing about these challenges which carry the potential for greater harm and disruption to all of us! Hello!

Even if you want desperately to doubt, and can muster all the artillery possible which favors your point of view, the reality is what it is. Deniers must demonstrate the courage to at least consider the possibilities that there are indeed many truths and facts in support of the evidence they so ardently deny, and thus preparation and planning ought to at the very least be considered.

If you choose not to purchase fire insurance for your home because of your supreme confidence it will never be needed, then this argument will fall on deaf ears. But for all the others, you owe it yourselves and your children to consider the possibility—however slim it might appear to be from your perspective—that the evidence offered by your ideological opponents might … just might, have some validity.

America needs to resurrect the benevolent community and take on a new challenge. The Great Seal of the United States bears the dictum, ‘E Pluribus Unum,’ Out of many, one. That’s the historic spirit of America that is needed now more than ever. [5]

Sources:

[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/middle-eastern-oil-addiction-2011-12; It’s 2012–It’s Just Absurd That We’re Still Addicted To Middle-Eastern Oil by Henry Blodget, 12.28.11
[2] http://www.businessofgovernment.org/blog/strategies-font-color-redcut-costsfont-and-improve-performance/reduce-energy-use-leading-vision; Reduce Energy Use: Leading with a Vision and Acting with Strategic Intent by Tim Fain – 07.20.11
[3] http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/12/the-future-needs-an-attitude-adjustment/; The future needs an attitude adjustment by Tim Murphy – 12.27.11
[4] http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51627; Why Bill Gates is wrong by David Roberts – 02.17.10
[5] http://www.opednews.com/articles/Lost-in-Space-The-Decline-by-Bob-Burnett-110715-765.html; Lost in Space: The Decline of the American Spirit by Bob Burnett – 07.15.11

[NOTE: This post is part of an ongoing series (the first from 2010 and from 2011 can be found here and here) whose purpose is to provide tangible examples of what our future might be like in a world where we will no longer have available to us the quality and quantity of fossil fuel energy sources as we have long been accustomed to possessing and using. Some examples will describe significant impacts beyond the most obvious one: less but more expensive gas to power our vehicles.

Other posts will describe routine aspects of daily living that will likely change when producers of goods and services no longer have inexpensive and adequate supplies of the fossil fuel resources they need. I’m certain that the questions I raise will in turn raise other concerns as well. It is only by acknowledging the consequences affecting each of us that we can begin an intelligent national process of planning and implementing new methods of providing the goods and services we’ll need or desire.]

~~~

I don’t know if this is good news or bad, but credit card usage was up in 2011. [1] We’ve all survived another holiday shopping season, and if we’re behaving reasonably, we’ve all decided to hide a credit card or two for a few more weeks as part of our recovery.

I’ll confess that they are handy (as are debit cards, although my wife and I use those only on rare occasions). We’ve pared down the amounts and frequency with which we use them nowadays, but for most of our everyday purchases (gas for the cars, groceries, dry-cleaners, etc) they remain the standard. They are also quite handy in setting up online accounts as well … no fuss, no bother. Just click and pay. Great to have for all that Christmas shopping!

Raw Materials
[Credit] cards are made of several layers of plastic laminated together. The core is commonly made from a plastic resin known as polyvinyl chloride acetate (PVCA). This resin is mixed with opacifying materials, dyes, and plasticizers to give it the proper appearance and consistency. This core material is laminated with thin layers of PVCA or clear plastic materials. These laminates will adhere to the core when applied with     pressure and heat.
A variety of inks or dyes are also used for printing credit cards. These are available in a variety of colors and are designed for use on plastic substrates. Some manufacturers use special magnetic inks to print the magnetic stripe on the back of the card. The inks are made by dispersing metal oxide particles in the appropriate solvents. Additional special printing processes are involved for cards, like VISA, which feature holograms.
The Manufacturing Process
The manufacturing process consists of multiple steps: first the plastic core and laminate materials are compounded and cast into sheet form; then the core is the printed with appropriate information; next the laminates are applied to the core; and finally the assembled sheet is cut into individual cards.
Plastic compounding and molding
1 The plastic for the core sheet is made by melting and mixing polyvinyl chloride acetate with other additives. The blended components are transferred to an extrusion molding apparatus, which forces the molten plastic through a small flat orifice known as a die. As the sheet exits the die, it goes through a series of three rollers stacked on top of each other that pulls the sheet along. These rollers keep the sheet flat and maintain the proper thickness. The sheets may then pass through additional cooling units before being cut into separate sheets by saws, shears, or hot wires. The cut sheets enter a sheet stacker that stacks them into place and stores them for subsequent operations.
2 The laminate films used to coat the core stock are made by a similar extrusion process. These thinner films may be made with a slot cast die process in which a molten plastic film is spread on a casting roller. The roller determines the film’s thickness and width. Upon cooling the films are stored on rolls until ready for use.
Printing
3 The plastic core of the card is printed with text and graphics. This is done using a variety of common silk screen processes. In addition, one of the laminate films may also undergo subsequent operations where it is imprinted with magnetic ink. Alternately, the magnetic stripe may be added by a hot stamping method. The magnetic heads used to code and decode the iron oxide particles can only operate if the magnetic medium is close to the surface of the card, so the metal particles must be placed on top of the laminating layer. Upon completion of the printing process, the core is ready to be laminated.
Lamination
4 Lamination helps protect the finish of the card and increases its strength. In this process, sheets of core stock are fed through a system of rollers. Rolls of laminate stock are located above and below the core stock. These rolls feed the laminate into the vacuum shoes along with the core stock. The vacuum holds the three pieces of plastic together while they travel to a tacking station. At the tacking station a pair of quartz infrared heat lamps warm the upper and lower plastic films. These lamps are backed with reflectors to focus the radiant energy onto a narrow area of the films, which optimizes a smooth bonding of the film to the core stock. The laminate films are then fully bonded to the core stock by pressing with metal platens, which are heated to 266° F (130° C) and applied with a pressure of 166 psi/sq inch. This lamination process may take up to 3 minutes.
Die cutting and embossing
5 After lamination has been completed, the finished assembly is cut and completed by die cutting methods. Each assembly yields a sheet, which is cut into 63 credit cards. This is achieved by first cutting the assembly longitudinally to form seven elongated sections. Each of the seven sections is then cut and trimmed to form nine credit cards. In subsequent operations, the card is embossed with account numbers. The finished cards are then prepared for shipping, usually by attaching the card to a paper letter with adhesive. [2]

There were 1,488,000,000 credit cards in use 2006 and that number is projected to grow to 1,618,000,000 in 2010….
A stack of the 1.5 billion credit cards in use in the U.S. would reach more than 70 miles into space and be almost as tall as 13 Mount Everests….
There were 354 million debit cards in use 2006 and that number is projected to grow to 484 million in 2010. [3]

That is much more than I ever wanted or needed to know about credit card manufacturing, and I’m safe in assuming it’s more than you ever cared to know as well. The above information may be a bit dated, but I’m further assuming that the manufacturing processes remain essentially the same. The economy may have impacted the Census Bureau estimates in the second quote above, but it’s reasonable to assume that here in the U.S. there are still well over one billion credit and debit cards circulating in and out of wallets and purses today.

I couldn’t bring myself to determine the materials needed to obtain, manufacture, supply, transport, dispose of, or market each of the dozens of components required to create a credit card, and who knows how many hundreds of processes and components needed to obtain, manufacture, supply, transport, dispose of, or market each piece of machinery required to get from A to Z in the world of credit card manufacturing. How many workers and suppliers who depend on this industry is beyond my capacity to imagine.

A lot is a good guess. An even more accurate guess is that none of those dozens/hundreds of steps happen without some measure of fossil fuel at each and every one of those individual phases. Without twisting yourself into knots, just think about this entire A to Z process for another moment and consider that observation.

Oil production worldwide peaked/plateaued (whatever works for you) five years ago. Whatever we get from here on in is pretty much guaranteed to cost more; take longer to bring to market; in too many cases be of inferior quality, and will be financially/politically/technologically/practically riskier to obtain. [see this and this, for example]

While I cannot recall now where I read the statistic last month, more than a billion additional cars are expected to grace the planet in the not-too-distant future (mostly in China and India if I recall correctly). That’s just one fossil fuel-consuming product (albeit a big one).

If we no longer have adequate supplies as it is, and cannot rationally (key distinction) expect quality, affordable supply to keep pace with increasing demand—keeping in mind that the “good stuff” is being depleted each and every day and that unconventional supplies are barely keeping pace with those rates of depletion—what happens?

How many component manufacturers in the chain of credit card production are going to find their manufacturing capacities adversely affected when the fossil fuel supplies each and every one them needs is either restricted occasionally or frequently, and/or becomes prohibitively expensive? How many components will be in short supply? For how long? Replacements parts? Transportation capacity?

How many workers up and down the supply chain will have hours cut or eliminated? What’s the ripple effect then?

What if Friendly Bank A finds itself unable to meet your request for a replacement card until … “not really sure when”?

Of course, a collective decision could be reached that credit card manufacturing has been deemed a “Class A, Really, Really Important” Industry and thus will suffer no curtailment whatsoever in fossil fuel supplies up and down the chain.

Of course, that means Some Other Industry will have to sacrifice a bit more….

This is just one industry among how many hundreds/thousands which require full supplies of fossil fuels to get from Point A to Point Z. How long should we continue to deny or keep fingers and toes crossed that Magic Technology is racing to the rescue On Time?

Sources:

[1] http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/05/pf/credit_card_use/index.htm
[2] http://www.madehow.com/Volume-4/Credit-Card.html
[3] http://quezi.com/5215; How many credit cards and debit cards are there in the United States? – 03.16.09

… [W]e are farther away than we have ever been from having a shared national vision for the future of our country….
Absent such a framework for the future, the national debate has been the victim of an increasingly acute form of intellectual paralysis: The short-term mindsets of our elected officials and the voters — tied to the two-year election cycle — force debate on inherently inadequate, short-term solutions to substantial, long-term problems. Because we have no shared vision of the country’s future, against which short-term solutions might be measured, there are no metrics for productive discourse. Hence, our so-called ‘leaders’ argue in reliance on their ‘principles,’ rather than with a broader view toward implementing the future we want to see.
Things will only continue to grow worse, and much more polarized (although that’s truly frightening to imagine), unless and until we agree, as a nation, that there are some fundamental issues about our future that need to be addressed… and resolved. [1]

So perhaps the most important question of all: What is the Goal—our Vision for the future—for the kind of nation and people we hope to be?

It is much more than a discussion of how we get there. What is it that we want to achieve … to be? Do we want “success” and prosperity and peace only if it can be obtained through the narrow lens of our highly-partisan individual and collective ideologies, or is attaining our primary objectives by whatever means are necessary in a changed world more important?

Last July, I offered this:

If we truly wish to believe and know ourselves to still be exceptional amid all the chaos and challenges and burdens that encompass us, then we need to harness a vision for the future that is not just incrementally better than this one, using the same resources and methods and strategies and ideologies that brought us to here and now. Peak Oil is going to change pretty much all of the dynamics.
We must ask ourselves—individually and community-wide—what we believe are the best opportunities for growth and prosperity going forward, and we must ask this with full awareness that we approach a future very different from the past and the present we will soon leave behind. In the years to come, the energy source which empowered and enabled us to rise to our lofty perch atop the world of technological marvel and progress     will gradually but steadily fail to meet our expectations of ongoing, ready availability; ease of access, and affordability.

We have the opportunity to take the best of all that we have and have to offer—from everyone—and move forward with greater definitions and determinations of success and prosperity and fulfillment. That’s a choice we still own.

But whatever it is we might want or feel entitled to will have to give way to the courage of knowing and understanding what the new scenarios and circumstances will be. Only then can we/should we proceed. That knowing, unpleasant or unwelcome as it is to all of us, must be accepted. The delusional and the fact-free denials about the challenges ahead must be set aside once and for all. They preserve an ideology which serves almost no one, and we need to come to terms with that fact. We deserve better; we are better; and it’s time we demonstrate those truths.

We still have the chance to resume our position of leadership, excellence, and exceptionalism, but we will do so from a different platform and with different resources and purposes to guide us. The longer we take to accept this inevitability, the more troubles we create for ourselves.

Resistance to change must be avoided in every possible way, as unfamiliar a process as that may be for some of us. Without our efforts and commitments and greater understandings, things will only get much worse for almost all of us, regardless of ideology.

I raised these issues almost a year ago:

Is global warming a “hoax” and nothing more? Should we concern ourselves at all with the current and future conditions of fossil fuel production that provides for us all? Are we better off in the long run cutting even more public expenditures that now afford some minimal assistance to our fellow citizens in need, better educational opportunities for our children, opportunities to innovate and invent better lives for all of us, and maintain, repair, and improve the infrastructure that serves as the foundation of all that we achieve? Or are we better off ensuring that instead, that small group of the wealthiest among us preserve their wealth at the expense of the many?

It may seem to be nothing more than a philosophical/ideological exercise, but the answers to those questions go to the very heart of the decision-making that will determine our future. Those decisions affect all of us, if not today or tomorrow, soon enough. As I’ve previously noted:

But the most critical issue to be addressed by all of will be more direct: do we bog ourselves down by nit-picking—working harder to find out why something won’t work or why it is not perfect in every way under every condition and for every person—or do we adopt a grander strategy that will under no conditions be perfect or even acceptable to everyone, but provides us with the best long-term opportunities in the face of Peak Oil. If     we cannot get beyond problem-solving-business-as-usual, we’ll be having these pointless partisan battles for another century … assuming we survive intact that long.

We begin with the question of where we want to go and how we want to be, and then figure out the path that will get us there by taking into account the realities with which we must contend: peak oil, global warming, economic issues (including the destructive inequality), and their impact on what has been to date. Anything less will eventually show us to be doing nothing more than chasing our tail.

The capacity for the United States to alter its current and projected economic and energy course is dependent upon its leaders’ abilities to formulate and effectively communicate a clear vision and unified purpose in the energy field, establish clear renewable energy goals, commit to a rigorous energy-use reduction plan, prioritize energy research, and implement an energy policy that creates a viable energy future. The American populace will need to acknowledge the reality of biophysical constraints, and embrace a renewable, energy efficient ‘American way of life’. [2]

I remain convinced we’re up to the task. We just need to start.

Much more on the way.

Sources:

[1] http://www.newgeography.com/content/002394-whatever-happened-the-vision-thing-part-ii?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Newgeography+%28Newgeography.com+-+Economic%2C+demographic%2C+and+political+commentary+about+places%29; Whatever Happened to ‘The Vision Thing’? Part II, by Peter Smirniotopoulos – 09/03/2011
[2] Lambert, J.G.; Lambert, G.P. Predicting the Psychological Response of the American People to Oil Depletion and Declining Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Sustainability 2011, 3, 2129-2156 [p, 2150]. http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/3/11/2129/

[NOTE: This post is part of an ongoing series (the first from 2010 and from 2011 can be found here and here) whose purpose is to provide tangible examples of what our future might be like in a world where we will no longer have available to us the quality and quantity of fossil fuel energy sources as we have long been accustomed to possessing and using. Some examples will describe significant impacts beyond the most obvious one: less but more expensive gas to power our vehicles.
Other posts will describe routine aspects of daily living that will likely change when producers of goods and services no longer have inexpensive and adequate supplies of the fossil fuel resources they need. I’m certain that the questions I raise will in turn raise other concerns as well. It is only by acknowledging the consequences affecting each of us that we can begin an intelligent national process of planning and implementing new methods of providing the goods and services we’ll need or desire.]

~~~

The (I hope) festive holiday season is once more in our collective rearview mirror, and we all now eagerly await the return of spring and the good feelings the change to warmer seasons always seem to usher in.

Most of us probably spent at least a brief period of time celebrating the holidays and (again, I hope!) enjoying our time with family and friends. Surely a good majority of us enjoyed a home-cooked meal or two at some point in these last seven or eight weeks….

What does this have to do with Peak Oil? Everything has to do with Peak Oil one way or another, and family meals are no different.

Another safe assumption I’ll offer up is that the home-cooked meals—be they simple all the way to extravagant—involved an electric or gas appliance or two. Pots and pans? Utensils and plates and cups? Travel to one or more stores and grocers to get all the fixins’? Air or car travel involved? And how about leftovers?

I doubt my family get-together was even marginally different than most of yours in those regards. One of our children drove up from her apartment some fifty miles away from us on four separate occasions. Another traveled back from college in New York on three separate occasions (via Amtrak). Our youngest was home on leave from the U.S. Army via a flight from Down South. He made two round-trips home in the last six weeks of 2011.

There were more than a few family/friend gatherings during that period. Lots of cooking, cleaning, eating (dining out, too) and leftovers. Sound familiar?

Not one single meal—purchase, prep, consumption, or “doggy bag”—and not one entrance into our home happened without some measure of fossil fuel usage. The multiple trips to grocery stores, drives back and forth from apartment to our home, travels to and from other states, pickups and drop-offs at Amtrak stations and Logan Airport, meal preparations, products used, re-used, and disposed of, leftovers packed away … all of that required that we use and consume some small and not-so-small amounts of oil and gas.

I’m sure I was the only one in my family who even once considered that fact, and even then I can’t say I spent much time contemplating it. I’m willing to wager a fair amount that the significant majority of readers paid that truth not even a second’s worth of attention. But it is the truth.

The farmers and others who provided the food and drink (along with the chain of suppliers who enabled them to do so in the first place), the transportation systems employed to get Seed A to Table B and all the interim phases and personnel … each and every one of them made some small or not-so-small use of fossil fuels as well. The manufacturers of the appliances and dishes and utensils we used, and the manufacturers of the machinery which allowed the manufacturers of the appliances et al to do their thing … they used fossil fuels, too. The plastic bags and Tupperware and Rubbermaid containers we all made use of liberally … same deal.

I could go on, but the picture should be fairly clear right about now. A lot of people required to make each family meal an enjoyable reality, and a lot of fossil fuels consumed along the way.

As I and others even more knowledgeable than me have noted before and do so once again: Oil production worldwide peaked in the middle of the last decade. Whatever supplies are left for us all to acquire and consume will surely cost more (and guess who pays?). The easy stuff is pretty much gone now, so what we are going to use will take longer to get from there to here. A lot of it won’t be nearly as efficient as good ole’ crude oil. That’s just for starters.

If supplies are about as good and plentiful as they’ll ever be from now on—soon enough embarking on an irreversible downward slide—what happens?

How many component manufacturers and suppliers in the chain of food and beverage production are going to find their capacities adversely affected when the fossil fuel supplies each and every one them needs is either restricted occasionally or frequently? Costs will rise, so that won’t help much. How many shortages of this or that item start cropping up, with no reasonable substitute waiting in the wings? Which transportation system finds itself lacking adequate supplies of fuel to meet demand?

What happens to our holiday family travel and dining plans as a result?

How many workers up and down the chain will lose their jobs because employers cannot meet demand and/or have lost business because resources and supplies simply aren’t available?

Of course, we could just decide that food and air travel (much more expensive, undoubtedly) are to be preserved as priorities no matter what (food … okay; air travel?).

Of course, that will require we collectively decide that something else will have to bear the burdens of less….Won’t that be fun!

What plans are in place today to address these and countless related concerns? What are we waiting for?

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here, addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

“Peak oil and the events associated with it will be an unprecedented discontinuity in human and geologic history. Peak oil crises will soon confront societies with the opportunity to recreate themselves based on their respective needs, culture, resources, and governance responses. Peak oil will require a change of economic and social systems, and will result in a new world order. The sooner people prepare for peak oil and a post-peak oil life, the more they will be able to influence the direction of their opportunities. Nevertheless, there are probably no solutions that do not involve at the very least some major changes in lifestyles. Consequently, peak oil will probably result in some catastrophic upheavals. Peak oil will also present opportunities to address many underlying societal, economic, and environmental problems.” [1]

In the face of this eventual, inevitable challenge: What kind of a nation do we want to be?

The question has been asked in numerous posts to date, and it remains as viable and vital an inquiry as any other. How we answer determines not just our impending future, but more importantly, the one we pass on to our children….

What kind of a future do we wish for them?

I continue to wait for a logical (or even marginally logical) explanation as to how cutting educational opportunities, taking away health care for more citizens, restricting research and innovation, letting our infrastructure worsen, making no plans for future transportation needs in a world where we simply will not have the same quality and quantity of fossil fuels available to us, while putting even more people out of work, BUT giving the wealthy more tax breaks, is helping anyone other than the wealthy 1% or so among us? It would appear that there is only one genuinely “important” objective one party sees fit to pursue….It is not a consequence-free choice, however.

Policies which would no longer require businesses to abide by health and safety regulations that benefit us all, or for the wealthy to pay a fair share of taxes which provide us (and them) with the fundamental resources and services the great majority of us continue to insist upon, or hoarding more of their income from these expenditures because the Magic Economic Fairy says this trickles down for everyone’s benefit and is thus a sound and acceptable strategy (while it creates even more hardships for more of the rest of us) … why? How does that work?

There is a definitive, narrowly-focused agenda being pursued by a determined segment of the GOP, and its effects are now spilling into national view. The numbingly-ignorant threats to our nation’s (and the world’s) economic well-being by their dangerous posturing on the recent debt-ceiling debate are only among the more visible efforts of a radicalized segment of the Republican Party in their quest to protect the wealthy at the expense of the rest of us. The consequences of these actions are now being or will soon enough be made clear. We have the responsibility to understand what is happening, what will result, and then collectively decide whether that really is where we want to go as a nation. The sacrifices being asked of middle class citizens to preserve the benefits of the wealthy will only grow more onerous as time passes and resources become scarcer.

What kind of a nation do we want to be?

I’m not certain that I’ve encountered an observation that is more disheartening than this one, offered by an anonymous senior House Republican aide and reported on a number of websites in the past day or two, (regarding President Obama’s current job initiative):

“Obama is on the ropes; why do we appear ready to hand him a win?” [2]

Millions of good, decent, hard-working (if only they had the chance) Americans unemployed for months on end; countless families and children suffering as a result of policies and economic truths implemented long before the dreaded Barack Obama took office; the psychological, physical, financial, and emotional toll on countless Americans as yet unknown, and we have an aide to a senior House Republican completely unconcerned about any of this. What’s important is the political scoreboard.

Millions suffering and now with at least a good chance of being helped in some manner by the passage of this or similar legislation? Not my problem! Let’s make ‘em wait another 15 – 18 months when we hopefully have a Republican President in charge. Then … what? Should we expect a different “exceptional” than this cowardly official represents?

It’s easy to be enraged by the audacity of this person’s callousness and breathtaking ignorance, but mostly … I was just saddened. Leaders and their aides are once again demonstrating that their concern is not to help the millions of American in need—no doubt many of whom supported these mean-spirited and narrow-minded representatives—but to make sure President Obama does not put any points up on their watch. This is the exceptional America these people boast of? Seriously? These are the types of “leaders” we’re expecting to guide us into a future far more challenging than any generation before us? Not good….

If we fail to become more informed about the beliefs, actions, and consequences of policies and ideologies promoted by our elected officials, while making no effort to become involved in the process, we’ll have no one to blame but ourselves for the greater hardships most of us will face in the years to come. Who is looking forward to explaining that to their children and grandchildren?

Do we really want to make life even more difficult for them?

Becoming informed leads to understanding that that is exactly what we’re doing, and provides us the opportunities to make a difference by doing….

Choices….

I wrote this several months ago, and my perspective has not changed: “We need a national vision with courageous, honest national leadership (Democrats and Republicans) unconcerned with narrow-minded and short-term ideological nonsense. This is about so much more than partisan principles. It’s about what is best for us as a nation now, next week, next year, and for the rest of this century at the very least. No easy, simple, or inexpensive and consequence-free decisions are on the horizon.”

We need to pay attention to the things that matter beyond next week, and Peak Oil, climate change, and laying the groundwork for our hoped-for future prosperity should be high on that short list of priorities. Gays in the military, President Obama’s status as an alien from some faraway planet, the need for guns in churches (seriously?!) scores of other equally absurd pursuits, “theories” and conspiracy fears, and any other selection from a too-broad assortment of crackpot pseudo-concerns have to give way to our dealing directly with a few very real, serious problems that will require more effort and involvement and talent than almost anything we’ve ever confronted.

I have no doubts that we are up to the challenge … now it’s time to do more than talk the talk. Are we ready to demonstrate what truly makes this nation “exceptional”? Do we lead … or destroy? Stark choices, but sadly not much of an exaggeration.

The fear that motivates these other ludicrous efforts, artfully egged on by too many who have too little interest in what is best for too many of us, must be set aside once and for all. Fear may have its place, but it is occupying too much territory on a too-crowded-as-it-is agenda. We’re better than that, and we need to make the decision to believe that that is true.

Promoting fear and misunderstanding keeps the Rush Limbaughs and the Fox News of the world in some semblance of control and power and prosperity—the rest of us be damned*—but is that really what we want? How exactly are they helping anyone other than themselves?  How is promoting more fear through misrepresentations (I’m trying to be kind) of any benefit to us? Other than stoking mostly irrational fears, what exactly is their contribution to our well-being?

In promoting fears which these “leaders” then convince their uninformed followers to believe, and that they have solutions for these problems (or are “protecting” them), what results instead is that these public figures are then free to pursue their own grander and more selfish agendas: lower taxes, less regulation, less assistance to those most in need. And who does that wind up helping, and who does this wind up harming? They can afford what they need, so who cares about anyone else? Is that how it works?

In a harsher future we’re now in the process of consigning our children and grandchildren to, this is okay?

When so much power and prosperity is confined to so few, what then? As more and more is stripped away from more and more in order to protect the few, greater inequality will result, and a much larger percentage of those so far unaffected by that disparity will then fall into the have-nots, including our children and grandchildren—and perhaps many more of us.

Of course we ought to be legitimately worried about what massive debt will do for the prospects and opportunities of our children and grandchildren, but if we aren’t also doing all that we can right now to provide the programs and resources and opportunities and investments to innovate and grow starting now, they’ll be faced with the double whammy of the burdens of great debt and no viable means to address the problem! What a wonderful prospect … but thank God the wealthy will be okay!

“What is the crisis we face today? We have an economy scarred by mass unemployment, falling wages, and growing insecurity. In the downturn, a staggering 40 percent of American households have been afflicted by unemployment, negative home equity (‘under water homes’ worth less than their mortgages), mortgage payment arrears, or foreclosure. In November 2008, one quarter of Americans aged 50-59 reported that they’d lost more than 35 percent of their retirement savings.

“The [wage] imbalances were obscene before the recession, with finance capturing 40 percent of corporate profits, the wealthiest 1 percent capturing half of the benefits of economic growth, the US running soaring trade deficits, even in high technology products, with China and the world. Our decaying infrastructure, broken health care system, declining educational performance in relation to the industrial world all preceded the fall….

“The right question we need to ask, I would argue, is what is the new strategy, the new foundation for an economy that offers hope for rebuilding America’s economic vitality in the competitive global market place? This requires a clear and bold strategy for revitalizing American manufacturing. It requires investments in areas vital to our future — in modern infrastructure, in education and training, in research and innovation. We need to capture a lead in the green industrial revolution that is sweeping the world. It requires new trade strategy, shackles on financial speculation, empowering workers to capture a fair share of the productivity and profits they help generate to help rebuild America’s middle class. We have to figure out how to afford this, financing what we can, changing priorities and raising revenues where needed. But this is a far different question than just how we get our books in order.” [3]

As Mr. Borosage noted at the conclusion of the passage just quoted: “It is hard to get the right answer when you ask the wrong question.”

Choices….

* (Some will surely find that referenced column intemperate and unnecessarily harsh. Surely some will merely brush this off as the ramblings of a bitter liberal disappointed by the Republican gains in Congress. But there is an underlying message that is being borne out every day now by the actions and legislative efforts of the GOP in Congress and GOP governors across the nation. We need to take at least a half-step back for a moment and think even just a little about where those policy roads are going to lead us, and where they will lead the wealthy few. The destinations are not the same.)

Sources:

[1] http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-21/collapse-nov-21 and http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproject/papers/index.html; Peak Energy, Climate Change, and the Collapse of Global Civilization: The Current Peak Oil Crisis by Tariel Mórrígan; Global Climate Change, Human Security & Democracy, Orfalea Center for Global & International Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara

[2] http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/09/12/316598/why-congress-wont-pass-a-jobs-bill-obama-is-on-the-ropes-why-do-we-appear-ready-to-hand-him-a-win/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+matthewyglesias+%28Matthew+Yglesias%29&utm_content=Google+Reader; Why Congress Won’t Pass A Jobs Bill: ‘Obama Is On The Ropes; Why Do We Appear Ready To Hand Him A Win?’ by Matthew Yglesias on Sep 12, 2011

[3] http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2010114724/americas-confidence-deficit; America’s Confidence Deficit by Robert Borosage – November 24, 2010

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here, addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

“We have designed and built the infrastructure of our transport, electricity, food, and heating systems to suit the unique characteristics of oil, natural gas, and coal; changing to different energy sources will require the redesign of many aspects of those systems.” [1]

Of the many great challenges to be faced as we enter a future with at best uncertain energy supplies, perhaps the most significant one of all is the one so clearly expressed by Richard Heinberg above. Nothing about that process of redesign—start to finish—will be easy, simple, quick, or inexpensive. But the statement encapsulates the full scope of what we face. Daunting to be sure, with prospects for success not guaranteed by any means. Only the most delusional will fail to recognize what’s at stake and what must be dealt with by all of us. If you depend in any way—as producer or consumer—on infrastructure, transportation, electricity, food, or heating, Peak Oil will touch your life.

We can give in to the fears that this is simply too overwhelming a task for us. That’s a choice. Another option is to recognize that these challenges afford us the most opportunity for progress, change, some semblance of continuing growth, and prosperity. Plan for a great deal of trial and error. The more of us who choose to become involved, the greater our chances of successfully meeting, overcoming, and adapting successfully to the changes Peak Oil will impose.

Choices….

It should go without saying, but sadly does not, that curtailing investments in education and research and infrastructure, while doing all that we can to remove the federal government from playing any role in our lives going forward, is just about the dumbest choice we can make. Re-read the few paragraphs above once again if you think that there is some easy and quick solution for this, or any rational solution at all, that can or will be successfully implemented at any level without a greater emphasis on education and research and infrastructure spending, all and only made possible with the federal government supplying us with the framework to make any of this possible. Best of luck to you if you think so.

The onset of Peak Oil has been a long time coming. Not that we can afford to do so, but if we are looking for someone to blame, we all need to look inward. The warnings, ephemeral as they may have been, have been with us for decades. But we did not want to alter the pace of progress and prosperity in order to reflect on where we were going and how we were going to get there, and we have now traveled a good long way down a path of prosperity and progress that will not lead us to any good places at the end of the road.

The farther we continue to travel down that path which relies on fossil fuels to sustain us rather than on a new one marked “new future with new and necessary alternatives”, the longer and more difficult will our backtracking be. What supplied us on the front part of the journey will no longer be there for us on the ride back. We’re going to have to create entirely new systems and infrastructures and modes of production and transportation—or at the very least re-build extensively—in order to adapt to new sources of energy. So relying on current conditions and practices and customs and tinkering only along the edges simply won’t work because we are going to be dependent on entirely different energy resources.

And as I noted several months ago: “Just to keep things interesting, the transition from an oil-based industrial economy to Whatever-Plan-B-Will-Be will have to be achieved using that same declining measure of supply to design and construct and transport and put into place the infrastructure we’ll need to support and maintain this as yet unidentified and not-planned-for-yet Plan B, thus making less available to us for all of our ‘normal’ demands and needs, creating its own set of problems. We’re talking about using a lot of declining energy supplies that’s a lot more expensive, over the course of a lot of years to put into operation a lot of new industrial and economic and civic foundations to (we hope) enable us to maintain some semblance of growth and prosperity—all while using new energy resources that simply will not be as efficient or inexpensive or dependable as oil has been.”

Do we really want to wait even longer so that we make the transition that much more difficult and painful?

A few hundred thousand cities or towns, or several million businesses, or a few hundred million people trying to figure out what to do on their own … not such a good strategy. We cannot isolate bits and pieces of living and producing so as to improve this set of conditions or that lifestyle or this region or that interest group. Everyone and everything will be affected by the decline in conventional oil production and a reliance instead on less efficient unconventional or alternative resources. Without an overall strategy and purpose for what we need do, constrained as we will be going forward, we provide instead a certain recipe for failure.

If nothing else, we’ll need to recognize that, like climate change, Peak Oil is not some event looming on a distant horizon. Peak Oil is happening now. We may not be seeing its effects inside our own home—today—but the impact is being felt, and it will only get progressively more intense as time passes. Not next week or next month or even next year will its impact be obvious to all but the most rigidly delusional, but make no mistake, all the supply and demand factors which contribute to the slide down the other side of that peak in production rate are now in place. We may not notice a handful of snow as it begins its slide down the mountain, either, but we can’t miss it once it’s picked up unstoppable momentum farther down the slope.

So addressing concerns that will get us through just the next few years is not enough, either, and ultimately will be a greater waste of even fewer resources (Can you say “Drill, baby, drill?”). We will have limited resources as it is. Do we use them up in band-aid fashion to deal with what we have to deal with only in the moment, thus creating perhaps unsolvable problems in the years to come? Putting us that much further behind at a time when we will be least able to afford it is not a viable option. (Sounds better than the more direct: “… is an incredibly dumb option.”)

Leaders will need to lead, and so too will we need to pool our own talents and resources and creativity to make the process work. We can minimize the fear and panic that may well up for some who now feel so powerless, and the best antidote will be collective effort beginning at the national level and extending all the way to our own local communities. We’ll need to always maximize efficiencies and utilize economies of scale so that we’re not perpetuating ineffective policies and practices by lack of coordination and planning. The more we all participate and share in the vision for a better future, the better off we’ll all be.

We either take the lead and devote our massive abilities and talents to revitalizing our nation and what we’ll achieve and be in this century—predicated on new rules with new resources and new objectives and new adaptations—or we retrench and insist on business as usual because we’re exceptional….

Back in November and shortly after the mid-term elections, New York Times columnist David Brooks wrote an interesting piece on a “National Greatness Agenda.” His suggestions and inspirations then ring just as true today—perhaps more so:

“I’m optimistic right now. I’m optimistic because while our political system is a mess, the economic and social values of the   country remain sound. My optimism is also based on the conviction that serious, vibrant societies don’t sit by and do nothing    as their governments drive off a cliff….

“[Y]ou can organize [a movement] around a broad revitalization agenda, and, above all, love of country….

“It will take a revived patriotism to motivate Americans to do what needs to be done. It will take a revived patriotism to lift   people out of their partisan cliques. How can you love your country if you hate the other half of it?”

A good and important question. Let’s find our best answers. We’re going to need a lot of them.

[NOTE: on vacation next week. No postings]

Sources:

[1] http://old.globalpublicmedia.com/memo_to_the_president_elect; Museletter [200]: Memo to the President-elect on Energy Realism and the Green New Deal; December 2008

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

For those worried or lamenting that we are no longer exceptional, my simple message is that genuine “greatness” will be ours again if we recognize that we must do things differently now if for no other reason than we have no choice. The reality is that globalization and the proliferation of opportunities and technology and innovation and progress have likewise expanded the complexity of this world as well as the number of people and nations benefitting as a result. All of them are borrowing from the same pool of finite resources. Basic math suggests that problems loom on the horizon.

We cannot and will not go back to the means and methods of growth and prosperity that once were because the onset of Peak Oil will simply make that option unavailable to us—protests and whining and denials and delusions notwithstanding (facts continue to annoy)—but that does not equate to failure or decline or defeat unless that is what we choose by neglect or fear or passive and meek acceptance of our presumed powerlessness.

That we have to change and adapt—and yes, even sacrifice—is not a statement that we have failed, that current policies fail, or that we have indeed lost our exceptionalism. This can no longer be about wanting only what we want and nothing less. Everyone will be affected by the decline in the availability of conventional oil resources, and so everyone must recognize that “sacrifices” of one sort or another will simply be part of the mix—all the strenuous objections duly noted.

The truth is that life is all about change, and in this case, the cumulative effect of great achievements and progress over any decades here and around the world have lead us to a place where great change must take place once again. The scope may be daunting. Our capacity to meet the challenges will be limited only by the level of our commitment.

Failure will be defined by whether or not we meet the challenge to lead the way by active involvement, or if instead we insist on returning to the days of old as the rest of life passes us by, preferring instead that we either leave it to others or hope that some technology or discovery will appear and change all for us in the blink of an eye. A choice, to be sure, just not a very good one….We’re working too hard as it is to preserve what is or once was, and continuing to adopt that problem-solving strategy will do little more than create even more problems. Another choice … likewise not a very good one.

We live in a finite world with finite resources, and the simple truth is that we’ve now used up much of what we were given. What now remains (plentiful though it might still be), poses a challenge given not just the demands of so many more seeking a better life, but because of the basic factors of production: what’s left is now in more-difficult-to-access regions (be it for political or geological reasons); will cost more to produce and bring to market (and guess who pays?); it will be of inferior quality and efficiency; and it will take longer to bring to market—all while demand increases. A simple yet painful set of truths which must first be acknowledged. Step One….

“Preparing our communities for peak oil is no easy task. From local zoning codes to national highway bills, just about every policy and infrastructure decision made since World War II has prioritized driving over walking, bicycling and taking public  transportation. As a result, today most Americans and Canadians are powerless to meet even their most basic daily needs — whether going to work or buying food– without using a petroleum-powered car or truck.” [1]

We will have our work cut out for us. Our first step remains unchanged: we must all become more aware of the challenges to be faced. (This requires our leaders to likewise pay more attention to what matters … easier said than done.) We will then have to find the way and the means to decide on objectives and policies to best help us all adapt, and then with the assistance of local/regional governments and organizations, take the steps needed to adapt as we move forward.

I appreciate the urgent need now to avoid adding more to our plates, and fearing those added burdens. But the truth is that the burdens won’t go away. By embracing them, and making the decision to put forward the best of what we have to offer toward efforts at dealing with these looming challenges, we’ll then give ourselves the best options to manage the adaptations that will have to be made regardless of preferences or political ideologies. It’s the unknown we fear … the known tends to quickly lose much of its power.

If our majority decision is that we don’t or won’t accept and adapt to the changes that a warmer planet and an ever-declining supply of fossil fuels will surely impose upon—deciding against putting forth our best plans and strategies beginning now—then our futures will likely be little more than a succession of escalating mini and not so mini crises always being treated with short-term solutions and ever-diminishing resources with which to fashion increasingly hapless solutions. Our best choice?

I’m not convinced that applying one band-aid after another is our best alternative. Shooting oneself in the foot is no better a strategy than remaining clueless. We cannot continue to make plans for growth and renewal without recognizing that all of this will be done with less of what got us here.

Real courage—the demonstration of our exceptionalism—will come from admitting we now face new challenges and that we can be just as great and just as united in fashioning new ways of living, and leading. Let’s prove it to ourselves first and then demonstrate to the rest of the world that we’re still the greatest nation on earth, and in the face of these extreme challenges soon upon us, we can and will lead the way. In doing so, we’ll create the better future we still hope for, and leave our children a more secure, prosperous, and inspiring world in which to live and make their own contributions.

“Other people think we are losing our exceptionalism. But, the truth is, there’s just been a change in the shape of the world community. In a world of relative equals, the U.S. will have to learn to define itself not by its rank, but by its values. It will be important to have the right story to tell, the right purpose and the right aura. It will be more important to know who you are.” [2]

“We need an economy for the twenty-first century, one that is in sync with the earth and its natural support systems, not one that is destroying them. The fossil fuel-based, automobile-centered, throwaway economy that evolved in western industrial societies is no longer a viable model—not for the countries that shaped it or for those that are emulating them. In short, we need to build a new economy, one powered with carbon-free sources of energy—wind, solar, and geothermal—one that has a diversified transport system and that reuses and recycles everything. We can change course and move onto a path of sustainable progress, but it will take a massive mobilization—at wartime speed….

“One of the questions I hear most frequently is, What can I do? People often expect me to suggest lifestyle changes, such as   recycling newspapers or changing light bulbs. These are essential, but they are not nearly enough. Restructuring the global economy means becoming politically active, working for the needed changes….Saving civilization is not a spectator sport.

“Inform yourself. Read about the issues….You might want to organize a small group of like-minded individuals to work on an issue that is of mutual concern. You can begin by talking with others to help select an issue to work on.” [3]

Do we want to play a part—however small it may seem to be—in helping to direct and shape our future? That choice is ours. The truth is that it will be difficult. A greater truth is that we are in fact up to the task and the challenge. It’s time to put that on display.

To be continued….

Sources:

[1] http://postcarboncities.net/node/3593; Showing leadership on peak oil – Daniel Lerch, Posted 8 October 2008

[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/14/opinion/14brooks.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss; Ben Franklin’s Nation By David Brooks – Dec 14, 2010

[3] http://www.earth-policy.org/book_bytes/2011/wotech13_ss5; Let No Man Say It Cannot Be Done by Lester R. Brown – April 19, 2011 [Adapted from Chapter 13, “Saving Civilization,” in Lester R. Brown, World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2011)]

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here, addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

“A Gallup poll from late last year found that 80% of Americans believe their country ‘has a unique character that makes it the greatest country in the world.” There are very few political propositions which can command 80% support; that this one does shows just how much American exceptionalism is solidified as political orthodoxy in the United States.’” [1]

For all the silliness about whether our President believes us to be an “exceptional” nation, the truth is that in many ways we are exceptional—at least our history, imperfect as it surely has been, suggests no less. (Although the insanity of the debt-ceiling debates legitimately calls that notion into question. The behavior of some “leaders” has been nothing short of both appalling and embarrassing.)

But being exceptional carries with it responsibilities, and not just on the part of our elected officials, those in the media, or industrial, academic, and business leaders.

Exceptionalism is not a birthright or an entitlement simply because….Exceptionalism—whatever its definition—must be earned, and reinforced by each succeeding generation—forged amid great conflict and challenge which has so often called on us to find our better selves and rise above petty and idiotic discourse. We have more than our fair share of that now, and we might want to collectively consider bringing the senseless dialogues that predominate to a not-so-merciful end, and soon. We’re better than that.

If we truly wish to believe and know ourselves to still be exceptional amid all the chaos and challenges and burdens that encompass us, then we need to harness a vision for the future that is not just incrementally better than this one, using the same resources and methods and strategies and ideologies that brought us to here and now. Peak Oil is going to change pretty much all of the dynamics.

We must ask ourselves—individually and community-wide—what we believe are the best opportunities for growth and prosperity going forward, and we must ask this with full awareness that we approach a future very different from the past and the present we will soon leave behind. In the years to come, the energy source which empowered and enabled us to rise to our lofty perch atop the world of technological marvel and progress will gradually but steadily fail to meet our expectations of ongoing, ready availability; ease of access, and affordability.

One of the traits which determine the extent to which an individual or group can be rightfully considered “exceptional” is the courage and honesty with which they face the challenges that lay before them and those which will surely arise in later days. Delusion, misrepresentations, outrights lies, obfuscation, confusion, and all their brethren have no role to play in the efforts required of exceptional nations. Leaders should know that being skilled at those efforts is not the “exceptionalism” we aspire to.

We will either create a new future with all of its advances and opportunities and expectations/hopes for prosperity and security and success by first acknowledging that our great progresses of the past have led us to a point where our the fossil fuel resources are on an inexorable path of decline—necessitating new ways of producing and consuming—or we stubbornly, foolishly, and futilely try to re-create the past by insisting that business as usual must prevail. Soon enough, and long before we have fully transitioned our industrial and cultural lifestyles away from fossil fuel dependency, that is the great truth we’ll confront.

Crisis or opportunity?

As difficult as it is to accept, life as we’ve know it will no longer be the same. As many other nations pursue their own ambitions and do what they can to grow their economies and rightfully fashion a better quality of life for their citizens—seeking in many respects to become more like the U.S.—just hoping or stubbornly insisting that we’re still exceptional just because we say so (or insist we must be just because … ) is not enough.

“Put another way, enthusiasts for American exceptionalism seem to love America because they see it as great and supreme, and there is the possibility that they might cease loving it if it were no longer great and supreme. When Americans say that ours is the greatest country in the history of the world, it is obviously not just a description of how they think America compares, but a claim that they must be in some way the greatest people in the history of the world by virtue of being Americans. It is self-glorification masquerading as praise of something else.

“To rephrase [Julien] Sanchez’s observation in terms of power, celebrating Americanness and congratulating ourselves for ‘our’ greatness are ways for those who feel relatively powerless to see themselves as participating in U.S. global hegemony and American ‘leadership’ in the world. This may help explain why enthusiasts of American exceptionalism on the right have become even more attached to the empire at the moment when conditions at home have worsened and America can least afford so many unnecessary commitments around the globe. It is also why there is such intense resistance to the reality that America   is experiencing relative decline in its political preeminence compared with other nations. If there is relative decline, conservative Americanists insist that it is only temporary and the result of a government that does not embrace American exceptionalism, which they then have to define narrowly so as to exclude many moderate and liberal Americanists who otherwise share their assumptions.” [2]

Not only are we better than that, circumstances mandate that we actively demonstrate it now in as many forums and to confront as many challenges as needed.

We need to play a bigger role in determining the course and quality of our future, and we do not succeed at that if we decide that we’re going to let the marketplace, “leaders,” and corporations dictate it all while we passively go on with our lives in hopes that this will all work itself out. The choice to blindly entrust our well-being to those others does not absolve anyone from responsibility for the consequences. Given the mind-numbingly ignorant statements from—and the destructive, narrow-minded, and shortsighted-in-the-extreme policies proposed by—a determined group of national “leaders,” that choice will exact a high cost on all of us.

More information about what we face, what options we have, and what the various consequences might be is always a good thing to possess. Participating in the planning and strategy can only be a better option than just hoping that others are indeed acting in our best interests. Evidence suggests something entirely different and is perhaps not fully understood by the electorate.

It’s not the leaders who will define and demonstrate exceptionalism (God help us if that were the case!). It is what we as citizens offer, share, and contribute which will provide the examples and the inspirations. We cannot be an exceptional nation if we abdicate responsibility to understand and participate in the process of envisioning and creating a better future for each and all of us—especially one where the fundamental tools and resources we’ve relied upon for decades will no longer be at the ready. (For those who might be looking for some added motivation, this recent essay provides an abundance of food for thought.)

We need a new vision for what a strong, prosperous, successful, “exceptional” America can and will be, and that can only come from us. Ceding that critical responsibility to “leadership” cannot be one of our options. It’s all fine and well to respect our leaders for the roles they undertake and the responsibilities they assume on our behalf. A thankless job, clearly….

But respect for them does not mean abdicating all personal responsibility for planning and participating. If we don’t provide leaders with both the demands to be met and at least some of the guidelines for attainment, then we run the risk that other interests (most often those governed by stronger financial motivations) will prevail, and too often they do so at our expense. In order for us to fulfill our roles, we need to make the effort to become better informed. Given the public discourses of recent times, evidence suggests too many are falling woefully short. Leaders, and the media, share blame.

“[A] disengaged community in a democracy tends to make bad political choices. When people work with others to identify problems, recognize resources, and implement solutions, they understand far better what is necessary to make their community what they want it to be. And they support both government and community efforts to address these issues much more fully. Problems get solved and communities achieve their dreams.” [3]

We thus need to not just encourage our local/regional governments to step up the pace of planning for a future supported by different sources of energy, we’ll need to become more involved as well. It can be as simple as get-togethers with neighbors to discuss matters that will now or soon affect our immediate community, with someone then taking the mantle of communicating interests or concerns to local leaders. Off the top of my head, two such organizations at the national level are AmericaSpeaks (here) and The Center for Deliberative Democracy (here). I’ll have more to say about this specific topic in an upcoming post.

I’m sure there are many effective, local organizations and efforts as well. These more structured gatherings of citizens across your city/town will likely be an important prelude to the topics becoming main agenda items for local leaders. They will prove to be even more important—critically so—as time passes. (Andrew Levison recently wrote a fascinating article on citizen participation that’s well worth reading.)

It is in our local communities where the most immediate impacts of Peak Oil will be felt … be it shortages of fuel, restrictions on availability, impacts of those limitations on our abilities to get around (thus reflecting a community’s current alternative transportation capacities), or the availability of all kinds of goods, services, and supplies as they in turn are impacted by declining fossil fuel availability.

With an understanding of these and many related concerns articulated at the federal level, our local communities should have at the very least some framework from which to then fashion solutions or formulate adaptations based on resources (e.g., available mass transit in the particular community) to help local residents adjust to Peak Oil’s direct impacts. The only way these more localized efforts can prove most effective is by having an educated community which understands the challenges and has already begun the process of structuring responses.

Leaving all of the details until the last minutes is not where anyone will want to be.

The choice is ours.

I’ll continue with this theme next time….

Sources:

[1] http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/03/29/exceptionalism?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+salon%2Fgreenwald+%28Glenn+Greenwald%29; Obama and American exceptionalism By Glenn Greenwald – March 29, 2011

[2] http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2010/11/05/patriotism-vs-american-exceptionalism/; Patriotism vs. American Exceptionalism by Daniel Larison – November 5th, 2010

[3] Reconnecting Government with People: Communities Solving Problems – Steps for building civic engagement infrastructure, and developing a culture of respect, sharing, and learning, to address our communities’ concerns and realize our dreams. A White Paper from the Local Democracy Collaborative by Jim Diers, Matt Leighninger, Paul Leistner, Valerie Lemmie, Ken Thomson, and Hank Topper, 3/16/11

[NOTE: This post is part of an ongoing series (which started here) through the next few months whose purpose is to provide tangible examples of what our future might be like in a world where we will no longer have available to us the quality and quantity of fossil fuel energy sources as we have long been accustomed to possessing and using. Some examples will describe significant impacts beyond the most obvious one: less but more expensive gas to power our vehicles.
Other posts will describe routine aspects of daily living that will likely change when producers of goods and services no longer have inexpensive and adequate supplies of the fossil fuel resources they need. I’m certain that the questions I raise will in turn raise other concerns as well. It is only by acknowledging the consequences affecting each of us that we can begin an intelligent national process of planning and implementing new methods of providing the goods and services we’ll need or desire.]

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I am now the very proud father of a college graduate (a wonderful young woman who completed her four-year curriculum in only three years—impressive!—and has now returned to the Boston area). I could not be more delighted or happier for her!

Last week, I flew to New Orleans to attend her graduation, and stayed there for five nights (had to help pack the van in which she and her friend were traveling back home). My wife, her son and a friend of his flew down separately, and stayed in New Orleans for three nights.

No great surprise, but my daughter was not the only graduate. While I do not have the exact statistics, I believe the overwhelming majority of the approximately 2300 graduates came from someplace other than the immediate New Orleans area. That’s lot of graduates now driving/flying someplace else, and a lot of family members who attended the graduation after having flown in/driven from some other location. In what may be a stunning revelation, this is not the only year a graduation was held at Tulane University … shocking I know!

Even more shocking, this happened several times recently not just in New Orleans. Rumors abound that graduations were also held in Boston, New York, and possibly someplace in California, with more expected soon.

Putting aside the affordability of college for many if our economic path does not change soon, how are families going to deal with the impact of Peak Oil on just the most basic travel options for significant family events such as this?

What kind of choices will families and students be forced to make in the years to come when travel expenses to and from colleges become prohibitively expensive for many if not most of them? The college visits most engage in during senior year of high school has become an industry unto itself, and travel expenses for that aspect of college planning are not insignificant. Our trip to New Orleans was the only college visit we made via airplane, but there was also no small amount of driving involved as my daughter and I checked out a number of colleges here in the New England area.

When gas was $2 and change it was a barely noticeable expense. But at the current $4.29 per gallon (which was $3.99 six weeks ago), families are going to start taking note. Restaurants and hotels and assorted other merchants and service providers who derive no small amount of revenue from these travels by countless hundreds of thousands of prospective college students and their families will suffer in the process.

I’ve been to New Orleans nearly a dozen times in the three years that my daughter attended Tulane. My wife has joined me on three of those trips, and my daughter traveled home on multiple occasions as well.

Each of those trips required some combination of air fare and hotels and rental cars and cab fare and parking fees and gas expenditures and/or use of our own vehicles getting to and from airports….We’re fortunate in that our other daughter attends school in New York City, making Amtrak an enjoyable option, but how many families can or will be able to rely on mass transit for these types of travels? The complete failure of too many of our leaders to recognize the need for more investment in mass transit will prove a damning regret in years to come.

My daughter attended Tulane in part because it was one of the few that offered the major she sought (and a substantial scholarship to boot). What if traveling that far had not been an option? Or if it had been, what kind of dynamics would have been involved if she had moved down there, and we didn’t see each other for nearly 3 years because travel expenses had become prohibitively expensive for us (not that it wasn’t a drain on my finances to begin with)?

What kind of lifestyle changes would this young college student have had to make, knowing that she was essentially on her own for three or four years without the intangibles of family contact? (As it is, a week after she moved to New Orleans for the first time, hurricane warnings forced an evacuation of all area colleges, and she was on a plane back home about 8 days after she and I had said good-bye!) What happens in these or similar conditions when plane fare is out of the question for most? Buying airline tickets last minute is not exactly an inexpensive proposition! And what kind of options have to be put into place when vehicular travel is not feasible, and there is no mass transit available?

“Our friend of past online debates, Randall O’Toole, is a champion of both the auto-based transportation system and mobility in general. His argument is essential that there is a correlation between mobility and prosperity, that the more mobile a society is, the more at liberty people are to follow endeavors that enhance life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Greater mobility increases job opportunities, shopping selection, service competitiveness, school choices and even the gene pool people have a chance to select from when seeking a mate. There is no question that, in a broad sense, he is correct.” [1]

Greater mobility has been a wonderful option for many years for countless millions of us. What happens in the years to come when it’s not?

Sources:

[1] http://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2011/4/4/mobilitys-diminishing-returns.html; Mobility’s Diminishing Returns by Charles Marohn – April 4, 2011