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A fresh perspective on the concept of peak oil and the challenges we face

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Tag: integrity

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As a lead-in to discussing the main theme of this series: the role System Justification plays in the climate change/peak oil denial strategy, it would be useful to provide a brief summary of some of the more pressing and critical facts suggesting an issue or two in Fossil Fuel Production Land….

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As cognitive dissonance theory would predict, people tend to avoid information that is dissonant with their current beliefs and seek consonant information, especially when they are already committed to a particular position [citations in original pdf]

I’ll conclude this portion of the series with some unedited comments about President Obama by anonymous readers of the American Thinker article discussed in prior posts. It’s a remarkable but unfortunately not uncommon sampling of what passes for reasoned responses—at least for those having any relevance at all to the article about our future energy supply and its dismissive treatment of any concerns about fossil fuel production—from a too-large segment of the far Right on almost any issue dividing Left from Right. That’s not to say those on the Left don’t contribute their share of discord, but from my very unscientific observations over a numbers of years, the personal attacks are far fewer; and one finds more substantiation of the positions taken.

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Human nature being what it is, predictably there are those who still harbor doubts about certain issues pertaining to current and future fossil fuel supplies. There is, however, no doubt that there’s an over-abundance of juvenile, fact-free nonsense passing as gospel truth from industry cheerleaders and media counterparts. continue reading…

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Shortsighted as a strategy is … well, shortsighted. Too bad that’s not the worst that can be said about it. Good to know that in my unexpectedly long absence away from posting that not much has changed, price drops and production numbers notwithstanding….

Fossil fuel and utility interests, concerned about the rise of cheap clean energy, are financing attacks on pro-clean energy policies, in an effort to delay the growth of a market competitor….
[S]pecial interests tied to the fossil fuel and utility industries are spreading disinformation about the cost of clean energy. The Koch Brothers and their allies want to continue selling as much coal, oil, and gas as possible — and in their effort to rollback clean energy policies, are spreading falsehoods about the energy market.

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Those of us paying attention to oil supply issues are on occasion torn by decisions as to whether to simply be amused by the maddening, cherry-picked attempts at analysis of the “myth” of peak oil [similar to the myth of gravity], or  just annoyed as hell that even the simplest concepts are either lied about or are so baffling to the anti-fact crowds that their only option is to nonetheless display their lack of understanding by passing along nonsense and misleading pseudo-facts to an unsuspecting public. continue reading…

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So instead of a more self-reflexive populace that understands everyone — including oneself — is full of contradictions, and more importantly, that it’s entirely natural to have some analytical imperfections, we’ve become a society of self-denial, where a person’s opinions can be easily discredited unless they practice an impossibly monastic lifestyle. [1]

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An observation worth noting … and pondering, from J. David Hughes: continue reading…

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In short, it is apparent that a solid grasp of the basics (let alone the complexities) of these domains elude many people, and there appears to be a discrepancy between how much people know about social issues and their importance and relevance to one’s day-to-day life. continue reading…

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Good to know the use of the official far-Right playbook of cherry-picking, key word usage, misdirection, and core ideological utterances are still the primary go-to tactics for denying the inevitability of facts and reality! That little of it is helpful for any issue whose shelf-life continue reading…

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Apparently, the possibility that some innovations might be introduced, if they aren’t already in an undefined but probably—or at least likely—manner in certain instances where there could be some potentially good news provided that certain other events fall into place exactly as some are hoping for at some point, but in a good way (just not consistent with facts or reality, but why quibble), then by golly we might possibly see oil prices drop, which, coupled with the distinct possibility that certain savings could be achieved immediately after magic happens, could result in something good—perhaps. (Of course, lower oil prices would lead to lower profits and lower investment funds available and thus end a lot of exploration and production, but hey! Prices will be lower.) We won’t have anything to buy, but it will be cheaper….

That’s the essential point offered in a recent addition to the endless parade of hide-most-of-the-facts nonsense from oil industry cheerleaders, this one courtesy of an article* by Gene Epstein, entitled “Here Comes $75 Oil” in Barron’s. This one was a gold mine of right-wing Happy Talk and tactics more routine than not: light on facts; big on hype; no context, while avoiding discussions of any consequences—potential or certain.

As is usually the case with such efforts, it’s all designed to help … well, not us. What’s the point? [Quotes to follow are from that above-referenced article.]

For the first time in its 150-year history, the internal combustion engine can be run efficiently on alternative fuels from a number of sources, including natural gas. As these alternatives are increasingly introduced, global consumption of oil will slow its growth and flatten out.

The first line does have some truth to it; no dispute there. Nice set-up, but then … the fine art of cherry-picking and dancing around reality begins in earnest.

What are the “number of sources”? How efficient are they? Give the Republican Party’s general aversion to investing in research to learn more about … you know, reality, how might that all play out? How extensive has the testing been? Is the infrastructure all set? What should we do with our gas-powered vehicles? When can I turn mine in?

And about that “increasingly introduced.” When? How about a “for example”? How widespread is the introduction? How soon before a full transition takes place? What happens in the interim? Costs? Considerations? Any details left to be worked out? What if it might possibly not achieve the potential a study suggests could happen under certain circumstances?

As for the slowdown of global consumption: When? How? Where? How do we share the potential with several billion others?

Perhaps we should introduce some of these Happy Talkers to the reality of high prices. There’s a long line of other not-quite-so-Happy experts who prefer the factual side of the discussion. Look up almost anything written by Steve Andrews; Chris Nelder; Steve Kopits; Ron Patterson; Gail Tverberg; Chris Martenson; Kurt Cobb; Tom Whipple; Jeffrey Brown; Richard Heinberg, among many others (apologies for not running the long list) who point out that high prices are enabling the oil industry to produce the inferior, more costly, harder-to-extract, environmentally-questionable (I’m being kind) tar sands and tight oil now being relied upon. They also point out that even at current high prices, profit margins aren’t  justifying further expenditures. Uh-oh!

Bean-counters for the fossil fuel industry love high prices! We lowly consumers, not so much. So when real economics come into play and we peons stop coughing up as much money, prices will certainly drop. So won’t production totals. See how that math works? Facts suck!

Did I mention that the conventional supply of crude oil we’ve relied upon for more than a century continues its relentless depletion? Mr. Epstein didn’t! (Seems a few other items fell off the page, also.) Oh, and what happened to the information about the much more rapid decline rates of wells drilled in the shale formations, or the vast trillions of barrels of shale oil whose production has not yet been found commercially feasible? (Of course, to be fair, the industry has only been attempting that for about a century—the fact-based one which has one hundred years in it. But the potential is there!) So what if the environment-savaging tar sands production hasn’t yet met its own lofty potential? Best not to discuss that, actually. My bad.

But there is the natural gas side to turn to. As Mr. Epstein noted:

[S]omething resembling a global market in liquefied natural gas will likely develop.

Can’t get more specific and certain than that! (Well, you can, but that would require the introduction of facts, reality, consequences, and context. Who has time for that?)

As for helping the public to understand the realities and challenges of future energy supply so that they and their communities might actually plan for adaptation to a different reality, information (loosely-defined) such as the Barron’s article provides aren’t exactly intended to help at all.

The challenge of adaptation is all the greater—if that’s possible—because from our perspective too many people without the means/opportunities to understand what’s at stake are being fed a steady diet of half-truths, misrepresentations, irrelevancies, nonsense, and in some cases outright lies. If you come to the table without understanding or even knowing the facts, it’s a wee bit more difficult to contribute and then leave with meaningful solutions in hand. Not exactly a major revelation….

There was enough meaty nonsense in the Barron’s piece that it merits a second entry all its own. That’s the subject matter of my next post.

* If the link is unavailable, you can read it here

~ My Photo: Good Harbor Beach, MA – 09.01.10

 

* I invite you to enjoy my two new books [here and here], and to view my other work at richardturcotte.com :
 

       * Looking Left and Right

A blog examining the liberal vs. conservative conflicts in our society

 

       * Life Will Answer

Thought-provoking inquiries & observations about how (and why) Life does … and does not, work for everyone. [Inspired by my book of the same name]

 

       * The Middle Age Follies

A column offering a slightly skewed look at life for those of us on the north side of 50.

 

Looking Left and Right:
Inspiring Different Ideas,
Envisioning Better Tomorrows

Peak Oil Matters is dedicated to informing others about the significance and impact of Peak Oil—while adding observations about politics, ideology, transportation, and smart growth.