Peak Oil Matters

I’ve been very clear in stating that while I do believe Peak Oil is imminent (which doesn’t necessarily mean next week!), there’s no doubt that we still have billions of barrels available to us in the years to come. Our energy base is not falling off a cliff tomorrow.

Having said that, we must nonetheless start planning now for what happens when fossil fuel availability is significantly diminished and prohibitively expensive. While we still have a ready and adequate supply of oil and gas, we need to utilize those still-abundant levels of energy to begin the transition away from fossil fuel dependency. The reality is beyond dispute: our entire infrastructure developed, was built, and has since been maintained with coal, oil, and gas in mind. Until very recently, there had never been any considerations or concerns that we might actually have to completely re-vamp the transportation, power grid, communications, utility, food production, and/or other systems that comprise our basic infrastructure. We’re going to need lots of energy to make that happen.

When you stop for a moment and consider all the highways, the aqueducts, the power and electric grid systems (poles, wires, etc.), the schools, the hospitals, the bridges, the sewers, the farms, the waste treatment facilities and all the other components of our infrastructure, the amount of fossil fuels needed to design, build, repair, maintain, and renovate all of those elements are beyond staggering! Dealing with the impending reality that the fossil fuels which served at the heart of our infrastructure will no longer be available—thus requiring that the repairs, maintenance, renovations, re-design, delivery, and functioning of these complex components will necessitate something other than fossil fuels—means that the transition over to alternative energy sources or brand new design features will take years (read: decades.) We can’t wait until we’re up to our eyeballs in Peak Oil’s impact to start figuring out what to do. We’re too close as it is.

Our great dilemma then rears its head: We do not yet have the alternatives energies in place to effect an orderly and efficient transition. It’s going to take many, many years, much trial and error, and incredible amounts of research, design, production, and delivery implementation in order to achieve seamless transitions away from fossil fuels—assuming those efforts to identify efficient alternative energies prove successful! What are we supposed to do once the existing fossil fuel resources are not so plentiful ever again?

Disasters … or Opportunities?

In my last post, I cited the American Society for Civil Engineers’ 2009 report on the disastrous condition of 15 different infrastructure systems, and the assessment that we need several trillion dollars to bring them into some semblance of acceptable condition. Those systems do not exist in their only little cost-free vacuums, either. For example, when roadways or bridges become impassable for lack of timely funding to repair them, then the products and supplies needed for other elements of the infrastructure are undeliverable as planned, and those delays lead to other problems which create other issues that then lead to….

According to the International Energy Agency, if we continue to rely on fossil fuels, then some $26 trillion dollars in new investments are needed from now through 2030 to continue exploration for new resource fields and to utilize whatever new extraction technologies might be required to meet production and demand expectations. Does anyone doubt that a comparable amount will be needed to re-design, re-build, and/or re-configure our infrastructure so that its development, construction, repair, and maintenance are properly achieved without fossil fuels at the ready?

If we haven’t figured it out yet, then we need to recognize and appreciate the direct connection between a properly functioning infrastructure and the overall health of our industry and economy—and by extension the well-being of the citizens of this nation. A few tweaks and some tinkering here and there isn’t going to get it done. That’s a waste of time and resources, and we don’t have a lot to spare as it is.

The wonderful New York Times columnist Bob Herbert has stated that “We’ve become stupid about this.” Stupid can’t be a strategy any more than denial or delusion, and we’ve already got way too many people adopting those approaches.

I don’t pretend than any of this is pleasant to consider, but we are indeed presented with incredible opportunities to design an almost entirely new way of living, producing, and prospering. There are no elements of our cultural or industrial society that cannot (and will not) be impacted, and so the challenge is rife with the potential for great harm, or great opportunities. But success won’t happen if only some of us are on board.

So what choices do we make? What choices do our business and political leaders make on our behalf? Do we attempt to preserve a way of life that is inevitably subject to the reality of natural resource depletion; or we do we begin the lengthy, uncertain, and challenging path of finally moving away from fossil fuel dependence? There are no guarantees that we escape harm regardless of the choice made. We’re going to be affected and impacted regardless. And neither choice is free. But one is surely and at best only a short-term solution (and yes, decades are short-term in this regard).

Despite the amazing depths of foolishness (the kindest word I could manage) exhibited by those who have decided that ALL scientific assessments are completely wrong (a hoaxy-socalisty-changey thing, I guess), climate change is also going to impact us. Peak Oil is not going to help. We’re going to have to make fundamental, extensive changes in what we do to try and ward off the harm and destruction global warming will dump at our feet (even if that might be decades away as well). We need to start implementing those changes now, while fossil fuels remain plentiful.

These are not separate crises. We’ll need an extraordinary amount of wisdom and insight to make certain that fixing one problem doesn’t make the other worse … and we’ll need a fair amount of luck to try and make that work. We’re not going to come up with perfect solutions in the next couple of weeks, but we’re guaranteed to come up with none if we don’t recognize what we’re facing.

Despite the somber portrayal, I remain convinced that this is all about opportunity. The challenge of Peak Oil affords us a chance to determine and define growth and progress in new ways—and for many decades more than what continued reliance on fossil fuels will get us. Change is always difficult, more so now in the midst of great economic and financial uncertainty. Expectations about growth and prosperity along a comfortable and familiar path are understandably preferred. But they are now growing increasingly unrealistic, and the sooner we all understand this, the better off we’ll all be and the sooner we can begin to move in a necessarily different direction.

We have before us a great challenge, to be sure. Just contemplating the magnitude of what we have to undertake is overwhelming.  Designing and then undertaking all that is then required to actually implement this new vision is a feat well beyond our capacity to fully envision at this moment. But that does not make it impossible.

There’s no getting around it: we need to build a twenty-first century infrastructure. The one we have will not endure if it remains reliant on fossil fuels. We’re well past the stage where crossing fingers and toes is the answer. Our communication systems; food production; industrial development, production, and delivery; power grids; all that we consider transportation; water and sewer services, and all the other components that make up the infrastructure foundation that has brought us to this moment will have to be re-fashioned. All the pretending otherwise, denying, or ignoring isn’t going to change that. Those who’ve chosen some combination of these strategies must find the courage to look again.

A world of 6, 7, 8, 10 billion people simply cannot survive or hope to maintain (let alone enhance) economic growth and prosperity unless it embraces the changes contemplated here.

We have a choice, of course. But really, we have no choice. It’s up to us to recognize this and act, or fail. The opportunities are there.

Next: Part III

I’d like to shift gears just a bit in these next few posts and discuss some “behavioral” perspectives and considerations related to how we’ll need to deal with Peak Oil—a follow-up to one of my initial posts (here).

First up: Just a few of the things we know for certain about oil production, taken from an earlier post (here):

• Just 20 years ago, 15 oilfields were able to supply at least one million barrels of oil per day (the world now uses approximately 85 mbpd). Now there are only 4 such fields. [1]
• The world began using more oil than it was finding nearly thirty years ago. Nothing has changed since. In 2009 we were on pace to discover nearly 20 billion barrels of oil. Sounds great up until the moment you learn that the world uses approximately 30 billion barrels per year, and that roughly 80% of the Earth’s population is just starting to use energy as we do. [2] China and India, among others, are making their ambitions clear.
• A substantial majority of petroleum geologists agree that about 90% of all the conventional, recoverable oil on the planet has now been located. [3] Most of the Earth’s favorable geological formations conducive to oil formation have been identified.
• Here in the United States, we reached peak oil production almost forty years ago, at about 9.5 million barrels per day. We’re down to about 5 million now. We’re not alone.
• One third of global oil supply comes from 20 large fields—all discovered more than thirty years ago. Production rates for each of those 20 fields have now peaked. [4]
• To offset depletion in existing oil fields, Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency has stated that we will need the capacity equivalent of four new Saudi Arabias by 2030 to counter that decline, just to keep up with existing demand [5].

Given that we’re not finding any truly gigantic new oil fields, and unconventional resources (here) and (here) aren’t exactly a solution, we have some supply and production issues to contend with.

Our infrastructure (roads, bridges, train tracks, water and sewer pipes, power lines, etc.) does not exist in current form without the ready availability of inexpensive oil. Indeed, our modern society was created and is sustained in large part because we have that readily available, inexpensive oil.

We’re perfectly free to ignore these facts entirely (this is not exactly an ideal time to be spelling out more potential economic and societal woes). In the alternative, we can choose absolute panic over these conditions; or, we can decide to dwell in the vast middle ground where we acknowledge these facts and plan intelligently and carefully as we work to rebuild our economic ways of life.

We have choices now … more than we’ll likely have when Peak Oil is upon us in full force. Do we seize the opportunities now, or do we wait with fingers crossed?

To rely on “the sentimental belief that the things we fear will never really happen.” [6] is not much of a plan.

Hoping that Peak Oil’s onset and its unfolding impact will take a lot longer than we think may be someone’s strategy, but it cannot be ours.

What we do have to consider is this: In light of current and projected oil production factors, what happens when there’s not enough to meet all of our demands, to say nothing of those of every other nation—including the many countries seeking more growth and prosperity? What sacrifices will we be called upon to make? Which products will no longer be as readily available? Which services? Who decides? What will be decided? And how will we respond when decisions are taken out of our hands?

The truth is that this is not going to happen “soon.” But it will happen soon enough … later this year? 2012? 2015? 2020? Depending on the source, those are all reasonable estimates as to when we are going to begin to feel the irreversible and powerful impact of Peak Oil on our everyday lives. If you’re a betting person, perhaps you’ll take the long view and decide we’re 8 – 10 years away, so why worry now?

Peak Oil is not an event that’s just going to show up one morning several months or years down the road. We’ll soon start seeing signs that increasing demand is crashing against the wall of declining availability. Prices will rise, for one, and the effects and consequences will ripple through our economy, just as oil and gasoline price hikes have always done. Perhaps we won’t feel the real first bite for some time after prices begin to climb, but it won’t take long for the effects to begin filtering through our economy and our ways of life. Things are going to change long before we reach the stage where Peak Oil is clearly recognized as drastically affecting almost … well, everything!

Technological advancement is a wonderful attribute, and a hallmark of our nation’s prosperity and greatness. But blind reliance that somehow, some way, and at some point we’ll just find the “right” solutions is placing the livelihood and well-being of hundreds of millions of people on a wing and a prayer. I’m already on record as being a proponent of optimism over pessimism, but reality often dictates that we anchor our plans on what is now the truth rather than what we’d like or hope it to be at some undefined point in the future.

Finding the right technologies or alternative energy sources that could be implemented everywhere, efficiently, effectively, and quickly enough to mitigate any decline prompted by Peak Oil would be a magnificent statement about our ingenuity and creativity. But right now, that belongs in the “miracle” category and we cannot afford to place our hopes on Divine Intervention.

If we don’t start planning several years ago, we’re going to eventually have some problems. Trouble is, we don’t seem to be in much of a hurry to get anything done right now, either. That must change. We must change.

We can choose to fear what Peak Oil may do to our society and our ways of life. That’s certainly an option. But so too do we have the choice to view the challenges of Peak Oil as opportunities to fashion new successes for ourselves, new definitions of prosperity, new ideals of community, and new ways of projecting humanity into a future of hope and progress. The definitions and examples will indeed be different than those crafted as a result of the many benefits of readily available crude oil and its countless products, but there is no reason to lament that those descriptions will be less worthy or satisfying. We own that choice, too.

While we may fervently wish for a return to “things as they were not too long ago” and/or “business as usual,” the stern truth is that those options are no longer available to us. This Great Recession has compounded the difficulties of ever hoping to return to what we had perceived as a “normal” state of economic and civic affairs. Peak Oil will drive home that message for those who choose not to acknowledge it now. Adapt we must, and the sooner we begin the less imposing adaptation will be. No guarantees of course; but doing nothing guarantees an eventual measure of hardship we should not have to face.

But that is only a harsh sentence imposed on our society if we choose to treat it as such. Change will not be easy, given the magnitude of what we will all have to accept and undertake (see this and this post also) . But we do own the choice of taking a longer-term view of our individual and collective futures and deciding that it will be one of hope, fulfillment, and prosperity—different though the definitions may be. It’s up our leaders, and it’s up to us working in tandem with them. Lots of choices….

I’m going to devote the next few posts to discussing this in greater detail. Awareness and understanding of why we must begin planning now—and why we need to develop different attitudes and beliefs about Peak Oil’s arrival—will go a long way to determining how well we negotiate the challenging journey through Peak Oil’s unending influence on life as we know it, and business as usual.

Next: Part II

Sources

[1]: http://www.canada.com/story+glimpse+future+chapters/1333692/story.html ; The oil story and a glimpse at future chapters – Ray Grigg, Courier-Islander February 27, 2009
[2] http://www.oildecline.com/
[3] ibid
[4] Earth Policy Institute: Is World Oil Production Peaking? Lester R. Brown www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update67_data2.htm
[5] Peak Oil News (http://www.aspo-usa.com/) November 12, 2008, citing:  WORLD NEEDS FOUR NEW SAUDI ARABIAS, WARNS IEA  – Robin Pagnamenta Energy and Environment Editor; The (London) Times November 12, 2008 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/
[6] Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, courtesy of http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN-dreher_17edi.ART.State.Edition1.adb331.html – Rod Dreher: Peak oil is coming, and we’re unready; August 17, 2008

Recently, the always-wonderful New York Times columnist Bob Herbert raised some interesting questions about America’s future:

What will the United States be like in 20 years when today’s toddlers are in college or trying to land that first job or maybe  thinking about starting a family?

The answer will depend to a great extent on decisions we make now about the American infrastructure….

In 20 years, will today’s toddlers be traveling on bridges and roads that are in even worse shape than today’s? Will they endure  mammoth traffic jams that start earlier and end later? Will their water supplies be clean and safe? Will the promise of clean  energy visionaries be realized, or will we still be fouling the environment with carbon filth to the benefit of traditional energy  conglomerates and foreign regimes that in many cases wish us anything but good?

The answers to these and many other related questions will depend to a great extent on decisions we make now (even in the  midst of very tough economic times) about the American infrastructure. We’re trundling along in the infrastructure equivalent  of a jalopy, with bridges rotting and falling down, while other nations, our competitors in the global economy, are building  efficient, high-speed, high-performance infrastructure platforms to power their 21st-century economies. [1]

As uncomfortable as these questions may be; as difficult to ask as they appear to be; as unpleasant as they may be to consider, we are going to have to do the dirty work of asking and answering these and many related questions. Peak Oil’s challenges and the opportunities they will afford us to create a new framework for our future are not limited to ensuring we can fill the gas tanks of our Land Rovers and BMWs, or putting food on the table, or conducting “business as usual” (which is not to minimize the significance of those needs).

As I’ve discussed briefly in my prior posts and as will be detailed in a lengthy series of upcoming posts, there is very little in our everyday lives that does not originate from oil-based products. We are facing monumental changes when oil supplies begin their inexorable decline, and fascinating opportunities to address ways of meeting those changes!

What we give precious little consideration to, however, is that not just our lifestyles, our industries, our transportation, our health care, our businesses, and our entertainment rest on the fundamental availability of cheap oil. Our access to the basic utility services that sustain us likewise depends on that same cheap oil. How many sewer systems, power lines, natural gas and oil pipelines, water pipes, bridges, culverts, or roadways have been designed, built, maintained, repaired, or replaced without some necessary component of oil and the energy it provides?

We’ve spent decades creating an infrastructure in support of our phenomenal growth and successes because we’ve had access to inexpensive and plentiful oil that provided the energy and means to build it all. Does anyone really think that we’re not going to have to start addressing major repairs to our infrastructure soon? It’s no secret that we’ve neglected it far too long.

We have tens if not hundreds of thousands of miles (or more) of those very old pipes and power lines that need to be maintained and in many instances repaired and replaced. Reports and comments raised in just the past year alone suggest that we’ll need several trillion dollars here in the U.S. to bring our infrastructure back to some semblance of acceptable condition.

When the oil faucet starts flowing more slowly, what happens? Where do we prioritize, and at what cost?

We’re creating a dangerous precedent in thinking that this will all be fixed or replaced or reinvented any time soon. There are countless opportunities awaiting us, and countless problems looming if we don’t start thinking about how to deal with less oil.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is on record estimating that more than $26 trillion will be needed worldwide in the next twenty-odd years to continue fossil fuel exploration (gas, coal, and oil) and to develop and utilize production technologies to meet increasing energy demands. But those resources aren’t replenishing themselves! So after we spend all that money (which will come from … where?), we’re still going to have diminishing resources.

There’s a choice to be made, and it is not an easy one: Do we summon the financial means to try and meet increasing energy needs with coal, gas, and oil (along with unconventional resources such as oil shale and oil sands), or do we begin the long and costly process of converting and redesigning our existing infrastructure into one capable of supporting continued growth by means of alternative energy sources? (And this is all predicated on a fervent hope that we will in fact develop alternative energies of sufficient capability, quantity and economic feasibility to fully replace what oil does for us—not an inconsiderable task! Trillions of dollars are going to be needed in this regard as well. Our level of research and development expenditures this past decade is abysmally low. We’re already way behind.)

Alternative energy success is by no means a guarantee, but I daresay we don’t have much choice. The issue is how to go about doing all of this….Opportunities.

There are other problems to be addressed if we decide that we must continue a steady march toward development of all available oil—both conventional and unconventional. These tend to get glossed over in the more popular discussions about oil finds and oil usage, but they are no less important to consider.

And in the face of Peak Oil’s challenges, we are going to have to fashion solutions without the same ready supply of cheap and easily-available crude oil as we have for these past few decades. With another billion and half or so people added to world population in the next fifteen years, which is predicted to nearly triple energy demand, we’ve got our work cut out for ourselves. (Throwing up our hands and crying “Uncle!” seems an appropriate response right about now.)

I have alluded to the fact that the existing oil fields now in production face an inevitable consequence: the amount of oil pumped from the ground today means less oil available for tomorrow’s production quota, and then less the day after that…. In 2008, the IEA projected that the natural decline from existing oil field production would exceed 10 percent per year by 2030.

I’ve previously noted that we’re finding smaller and smaller fields to replace what’s now declining, so that’s not helping. Offshore finds, apart from their costs and the monumental efforts needed to bring them online, also decline faster than land-based fields owing to their unique characteristics.

We’re going to have to throw a lot more money at harder-to-find and harder-to-produce oil fields, and we’ll have to do so in the face of yet another challenge: this worldwide recession has significantly curtailed investment and production in the past two years. In just a handful of years, we’re going to start feeling the pinch of lower supplies because investments haven’t kept pace with demand. Billions of dollars worth of oil projects have been scrapped or postponed in these last few years, and they won’t run back at full throttle overnight. It’s going to take years to recover.

IEA Director Nobuo Tanaka warned back in November that global investment-related spending dropped nearly $90 billion, or 19%, during 2009 vs. 2008. That all adds up to less oil during this next decade [2].

In its most recent world energy outlook, the IEA is also predicting that almost half of the oil we’ll need by 2030 (an extra 45 million barrels per day, or about 50% more than what we now consume!) will have to come from oil fields not yet developed or found! [3], [4] In energy terms, twenty years is not a long time.

Is anyone planning to retire on funds yet to be found? That’s what we’re being asked to hope for when it comes to oil supply.

We must also not forget political considerations. We’ve haven’t exactly bathed ourselves in international glory this past decade. There are not an inconsiderable number of countries (think Venezuela and Iran, among others) which aren’t inclined to do us any extra oil favors.

Back in the 1970s, the Mobils and Exxons of the world controlled more than three-fourths of the planet’s oil reserves. Today, 90% of that is controlled directly by the oil-producing countries. Big Oil is getting shut out, and we’re all being left at the mercy of geopolitical interests and oil-production capabilities by many countries that are neither favorably disposed toward us nor necessarily as technologically advanced as the oil corporation giants. And let’s not forget that as their populations grow and their productivity increases, the need for these countries to keep oil “at home” increases.

Those who deny the implications of Peak Oil tend to overlook these facts. We cannot afford to do so.

Furthermore, various reports in the last couple of years suggest that over the past two decades, more than half a million skilled oil and gas workers have lost their jobs. It’s going to take years to replace them. Oil engineering and related studies are not drawing the same numbers of students as in the past, so as older professionals retire, there’s a growing shortage of experts.

We scoff at these factors at our peril, for they are real-world considerations directly affecting oil supplies and production. That’s not a good thing for those hoping for “business as usual” once we all get back on our feet.

Next: More Considerations – Part II

Sources:

[1]: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/opinion/17herbert.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&ref=opinion&adxnnlx=1258455637-lZ9f+84UVVV0xzhkak7qzg – What the Future May Hold By BOB HERBERT, November 17, 2009

[2]: http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/01/top-ten-peak-oil-stories-of-2009/ – Top Ten Peak Oil Stories of 2009
By Tom Whipple, January 4, 2010

[3]: http://seekingalpha.com/article/176440-peak-oil-demand – Peak Oil Demand by: Hard Assets Investor December 03, 2009

[4]: http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2010/1/Pages/05012010/01062010_051f7226d8814fd1886f49052b75288a.aspx

There is no question that peak oil is a contentious issue among those familiar with the discussions and considerations. Some adamantly deny that we are even close to producing the maximum rates of oil, while others ardently insist we are—or that we have already passed that point.

Let me start with just a few basics, to give you an idea as to why proponents like me think that we’re already at the point (or soon will be) when we have maxed out the rate of oil that is produced on this planet, and are just looking at declining amounts of oil production from here on in.

My next post will weigh in with an initial discussion of the opposing viewpoint.

Keep in mind that this is just a small sampling of facts supporting the imminent challenges of peak oil. Future posts will discuss the evidence in greater detail (but without getting bogged down in the heavy technical aspects. The Oil Drum and Energy Bulletin do a significantly better job at that than I could hope to, and they have access to better sources of expert opinion. See the links for each in my Blogroll.)

What the following facts each and collectively suggest seems fairly evident without the requisite professional expertise, but I’ll leave that to you to decide.

• Just 20 years ago, 15 oilfields were able to supply at least one million barrels of oil per day (the world now uses approximately 85 mbpd). Now there are only 4 such fields. [1]
• The world began using more oil than it was finding nearly thirty years ago. Nothing has changed since. This year we are on pace to discover nearly 20 billion barrels of oil. Sounds great up until the moment you learn that the world uses approximately 30 billion barrels per year, and that roughly 80% of the Earth’s population is just starting to use energy as we do. [2] Make no mistake: they will be looking to use more.  (Think China and India, for starters.)
• A substantial majority of petroleum geologists agree that about 90% of all the conventional, recoverable oil on the planet has now been located. [3] Most of the Earth’s favorable geological formations conducive to oil formation have been identified.
• Here in the United States, we reached peak oil production almost forty years ago, at about 9.5 million barrels per day. We’re down to about 5 million now. We’re not alone.
• One third of global oil supply comes from 20 large fields—all discovered more than thirty years ago. Production rates for each of those 20 fields have now peaked. [4]
• The International Energy Agency [IEA] is an organization which serves as an energy policy advisor to its 28 member countries, including the U.S. Its recent studies prove that the oil produced from 580 of the largest 800 fields is declining [5]
• The largest oil field in the world is Ghawar in Saudi Arabia. It was discovered in 1948 and reached its peak production rate of 5.6 million barrels per day in 1980. It now produces 5 million barrels per day [6], and when oil prices shot through the roof last year, at a price nearing $150 per barrel, Saudi production levels did not increase.  (What greater incentive to get more oil out of the ground than such sky-high prices, especially when you can produce it as  inexpensively as the Saudis? That didn’t happen because it couldn’t.)
• Back in the 1960s, more than 25 giant and super-giant fields were discovered. Super-giants are identified as those with “5 billion barrels of initial proven and probable reserves.” (The number is 500 million for “giant” fields). [7] By contrast, super-giant Ghawar had tens of billions of barrels of proven and probable reserves. Impressive, certainly, but the number of such finds has declined steadily over these past 40-plus years.
• We’re at a grand total of two such discoveries so far this decade (although none come close to matching Ghawar).

It’s probably safe to assume that the intensive and technologically-advanced explorations in these last few decades have not been designed to hunt for tiny fields. The giant/super-giant fields aren’t being found because there aren’t any. 8-10 billion barrel fields are now being touted as the “huge” finds of our time, and we’re not discovering nearly enough of them.

This does not mean we’re running out of oil next Tuesday, or next month, next year, or maybe even five years from now. “Running out” is not what Peak Oil is all about. Peak oil is about the rates of oil production, and declining rates mean declining supplies at a time when demand is and will be increasing significantly in certain parts of the world.

If the facts stated above are true, then waiting until it’s too late to do anything probably isn’t the best strategy.

Many developing nations feel entitled to seek levels of prosperity once enjoyed almost exclusively by Americans. By what right can we deny them? “We’re Americans so we get to do anything we want first” isn’t likely to get us very far in this day and age, much as some wish it were otherwise.

China, India, and other rapidly-developing economies are not going to sit on their collective hands while the United States and others make certain they are taken care of first.

What this does mean is that we are now on a slippery slope. Competition for diminishing supplies in the next few decades will become our reality as the demand for oil in the developing nations increases.

It’s important that we understand what this means, and how it will affect each and every one of us in our daily lives. Changes are in the offing.

I’ve designed this blog to help readers understand what those changes will be, what they mean, and how we turn a potential catastrophe into opportunities to revitalize our economies, our industries, and our way of life.

It will be a crisis only if we let it be, and that will happen because we all decide to … wait until some undefined “later” to start doing something/anything.

We’ll never be able to restructure our petroleum-based economies overnight, and without some planning now, attempting that is precisely what we’ll be faced with.

That approach won’t work, so let’s find better ways.
 
Next: What the opponents of peak oil have to say

Sources

[1]: http://www.canada.com/story+glimpse+future+chapters/1333692/story.html; The oil story and a glimpse at future chapters -  By Ray Grigg, Courier-Islander February 27, 2009
[2] http://www.oildecline.com/
[3] ibid
[4] Earth Policy Institute: Is World Oil Production Peaking? Lester R. Brown www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update67_data2.htm
[5] http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48582; The IEA warns of shortages – “The next oil crisis is coming” by Michael Kläsgen
[6] http://seekingalpha.com/article/130145-200-oil-is-coming-while-we-waste-a-perfectly-good-crisis-part-2
[7] Running Faster To Stand Still – By: John Kemp http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/24/running-faster-to-stand-still/