Peak Oil Matters

If we focus on trying to wean ourselves from dependence on oil, we can do it.
No, it won’t be easy–kicking an addiction never is. Yes, it might lead to some people eventually switching jobs or being slightly less fantastically wealthy (oil industry executives). And, yes, it will require some lifestyle and philosophical changes (ditto). But some of those changes will eventually be positive, not negative.
And, done intelligently, kicking our Middle Eastern oil addiction will also lead to the development of vast, exciting new jobs, companies, and industries–industries that we own and control and that will ultimately employ and enrich millions of Americans…..
We’ve had almost a half-century to prepare for this situation, and we haven’t done jack. If we remain in denial, fighting to preserve the status quo, a transition of Middle Eastern oil will ultimately be forced on us. And it’s hard to see why we would ever want that.
So it’s time we focused on this problem. And it’s time we did what any individual or company focused on fixing a long-term problem would do: Start by developing an intelligent long-term plan. [1]

Creating and disseminating an executable, unambiguous and widely adopted vision with supporting goals is one of the first steps to successful goal setting and implementation for any organization. The more complex the initiative and the larger the organization, the more important the creation and adoption of a shared vision becomes. [2]

Both quotes above echo themes I’ve been promoting since my first post more than two years ago. Addressing concerns and the challenges we face now by promoting ideas and policies designed to get us to the next election is not enough, and we should not for one moment be content with this strategy. Feckless Democrats and mind-numbingly narrow-minded Republicans serve no useful purpose, and we should all work to make sure that our elected leaders share the Vision we create for our future, and that they will abide by the directives we establish to make that our reality.

The challenges Peak Oil and Global Warming impose on us demand nothing less. Leadership has been almost entirely absent, and we’re past the point where we can wait through one or two more election cycles to get what we need. So far, we’ve gotten too much of the leadership we’ve deserved, and so there is responsibility on our parts to become more involved and knowledgeable about what takes place in the world outside our front door. Leaving others entirely in charge is no longer a viable option. The sooner we come to grips with that, the better our chances for the future most of us still hope to create.

Those themes are among the guiding tenets of what I’ll be proposing as this blog evolves, as I first suggested here.

As time passes, we’ll have fewer resources at our disposal to make the great changes we’re destined to make. Accordingly, we cannot afford to waste more now. We clearly have to find ways to move beyond the soul-crushing partisanship and the idiotic battles we wage to preserve ideologies at the expense of this great nation. Putting ourselves further behind cannot be a guiding strategy any longer. It never was, and is less so now.

So too must many of us come to accept that a blind, stubborn, and/or arrogant insistence on having now what once was is not the path forward either. Certainly it is more appealing and psychologically easier, given that it requires less of a (or no) commitment and effort on our part. We cannot do that to ourselves and our children, for one. And the uselessness of Congressional officials has made it abundantly clear that ceding all authority to them is a pointless exercise on its best days. We should be far more embarrassed than we are. We need to move beyond that, as well. Finger-pointing cannot be in the playbook, either.

In truth, the future could be unrecognizably harder than today in as little as 20 years. To reject this real possibility is to be willfully biased toward a bright future. Just because I warn of a possible future of hardship does not mean that I reject the notion that we could pull through the transition ahead in glorious fashion to a splendid shiny future for all. In fact, I’d love to see this happen, and I’d love it if we find a way around all my worries. But given the scale of our challenges, we would be foolish to assume that this path will materialize.
Assuming that a high-tech future will naturally unfold on the back-side of this curve is dangerous.
But for us to pretend that we are not stressing the ecosystem on a multitude of fronts at a scale never before seen in this world is irresponsible. It really is no wonder that we have a sense of unraveling. The future is unwritten, and the recent past may not be a good     template for the near future. We must accept that we face in the decline of fossil fuels the mother of all problems for humanity, and that past success has been against the backdrop of cheap and abundant energy. An unfamiliar phase awaits. [3]

The evidence of a warming planet and diminishing fossil fuel supplies are everywhere. What’s not at all clear are the motivations which support the destructive strategy of denial (although Naomi Klein had a brilliant piece on this recently—one to which I’ll be devoting considerable time to in the next few weeks.) Changes are going to force adaptations on our part. We can either lead by making intelligent, rational choices for the long term, or be at the mercy of changes for which we’ve instead chosen to be foolishly unprepared.

One could go on. The point is that the way we live together now, the way we govern ourselves, the way we arrange our physical spaces and our commerce, the way we do economics and measure prosperity—all these have to be changed in creative ways if we want to achieve the goal of sustainable prosperity. All these changes require … wait for it … innovation. Innovations in the way we think, interact, and structure our lives require just as much imagination, intelligence, persistence, and funding as innovations in technology. [4]

We buy fire insurance for our homes even though the likelihood of ever needing it are exceedingly small. The National Fire Protection Association reports that approximately 400,00 house fires occurred per year in the last half of this past decade. The U.S. Census Bureau reports there are more than 90 million single detached and mobile homes in this country, and 40 million other types of housing units. The percentage of homes requiring such coverage is thus exceedingly small, on the order of about four-thousandths of a percent if I did the math correctly (odds aren’t good, but regardless, the number is small!)

We weigh the risks and decide nonetheless that it is one we cannot and will not chance. Global warming is happening, and the quantity and quality of fossil fuel reserves available to us will not meet demand in the years to come. Much better odds (almost a guarantee) of dealing with the varied and overwhelming consequences, yet we are doing almost nothing about these challenges which carry the potential for greater harm and disruption to all of us! Hello!

Even if you want desperately to doubt, and can muster all the artillery possible which favors your point of view, the reality is what it is. Deniers must demonstrate the courage to at least consider the possibilities that there are indeed many truths and facts in support of the evidence they so ardently deny, and thus preparation and planning ought to at the very least be considered.

If you choose not to purchase fire insurance for your home because of your supreme confidence it will never be needed, then this argument will fall on deaf ears. But for all the others, you owe it yourselves and your children to consider the possibility—however slim it might appear to be from your perspective—that the evidence offered by your ideological opponents might … just might, have some validity.

America needs to resurrect the benevolent community and take on a new challenge. The Great Seal of the United States bears the dictum, ‘E Pluribus Unum,’ Out of many, one. That’s the historic spirit of America that is needed now more than ever. [5]

Sources:

[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/middle-eastern-oil-addiction-2011-12; It’s 2012–It’s Just Absurd That We’re Still Addicted To Middle-Eastern Oil by Henry Blodget, 12.28.11
[2] http://www.businessofgovernment.org/blog/strategies-font-color-redcut-costsfont-and-improve-performance/reduce-energy-use-leading-vision; Reduce Energy Use: Leading with a Vision and Acting with Strategic Intent by Tim Fain – 07.20.11
[3] http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/12/the-future-needs-an-attitude-adjustment/; The future needs an attitude adjustment by Tim Murphy – 12.27.11
[4] http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51627; Why Bill Gates is wrong by David Roberts – 02.17.10
[5] http://www.opednews.com/articles/Lost-in-Space-The-Decline-by-Bob-Burnett-110715-765.html; Lost in Space: The Decline of the American Spirit by Bob Burnett – 07.15.11

… [W]e are farther away than we have ever been from having a shared national vision for the future of our country….
Absent such a framework for the future, the national debate has been the victim of an increasingly acute form of intellectual paralysis: The short-term mindsets of our elected officials and the voters — tied to the two-year election cycle — force debate on inherently inadequate, short-term solutions to substantial, long-term problems. Because we have no shared vision of the country’s future, against which short-term solutions might be measured, there are no metrics for productive discourse. Hence, our so-called ‘leaders’ argue in reliance on their ‘principles,’ rather than with a broader view toward implementing the future we want to see.
Things will only continue to grow worse, and much more polarized (although that’s truly frightening to imagine), unless and until we agree, as a nation, that there are some fundamental issues about our future that need to be addressed… and resolved. [1]

So perhaps the most important question of all: What is the Goal—our Vision for the future—for the kind of nation and people we hope to be?

It is much more than a discussion of how we get there. What is it that we want to achieve … to be? Do we want “success” and prosperity and peace only if it can be obtained through the narrow lens of our highly-partisan individual and collective ideologies, or is attaining our primary objectives by whatever means are necessary in a changed world more important?

Last July, I offered this:

If we truly wish to believe and know ourselves to still be exceptional amid all the chaos and challenges and burdens that encompass us, then we need to harness a vision for the future that is not just incrementally better than this one, using the same resources and methods and strategies and ideologies that brought us to here and now. Peak Oil is going to change pretty much all of the dynamics.
We must ask ourselves—individually and community-wide—what we believe are the best opportunities for growth and prosperity going forward, and we must ask this with full awareness that we approach a future very different from the past and the present we will soon leave behind. In the years to come, the energy source which empowered and enabled us to rise to our lofty perch atop the world of technological marvel and progress     will gradually but steadily fail to meet our expectations of ongoing, ready availability; ease of access, and affordability.

We have the opportunity to take the best of all that we have and have to offer—from everyone—and move forward with greater definitions and determinations of success and prosperity and fulfillment. That’s a choice we still own.

But whatever it is we might want or feel entitled to will have to give way to the courage of knowing and understanding what the new scenarios and circumstances will be. Only then can we/should we proceed. That knowing, unpleasant or unwelcome as it is to all of us, must be accepted. The delusional and the fact-free denials about the challenges ahead must be set aside once and for all. They preserve an ideology which serves almost no one, and we need to come to terms with that fact. We deserve better; we are better; and it’s time we demonstrate those truths.

We still have the chance to resume our position of leadership, excellence, and exceptionalism, but we will do so from a different platform and with different resources and purposes to guide us. The longer we take to accept this inevitability, the more troubles we create for ourselves.

Resistance to change must be avoided in every possible way, as unfamiliar a process as that may be for some of us. Without our efforts and commitments and greater understandings, things will only get much worse for almost all of us, regardless of ideology.

I raised these issues almost a year ago:

Is global warming a “hoax” and nothing more? Should we concern ourselves at all with the current and future conditions of fossil fuel production that provides for us all? Are we better off in the long run cutting even more public expenditures that now afford some minimal assistance to our fellow citizens in need, better educational opportunities for our children, opportunities to innovate and invent better lives for all of us, and maintain, repair, and improve the infrastructure that serves as the foundation of all that we achieve? Or are we better off ensuring that instead, that small group of the wealthiest among us preserve their wealth at the expense of the many?

It may seem to be nothing more than a philosophical/ideological exercise, but the answers to those questions go to the very heart of the decision-making that will determine our future. Those decisions affect all of us, if not today or tomorrow, soon enough. As I’ve previously noted:

But the most critical issue to be addressed by all of will be more direct: do we bog ourselves down by nit-picking—working harder to find out why something won’t work or why it is not perfect in every way under every condition and for every person—or do we adopt a grander strategy that will under no conditions be perfect or even acceptable to everyone, but provides us with the best long-term opportunities in the face of Peak Oil. If     we cannot get beyond problem-solving-business-as-usual, we’ll be having these pointless partisan battles for another century … assuming we survive intact that long.

We begin with the question of where we want to go and how we want to be, and then figure out the path that will get us there by taking into account the realities with which we must contend: peak oil, global warming, economic issues (including the destructive inequality), and their impact on what has been to date. Anything less will eventually show us to be doing nothing more than chasing our tail.

The capacity for the United States to alter its current and projected economic and energy course is dependent upon its leaders’ abilities to formulate and effectively communicate a clear vision and unified purpose in the energy field, establish clear renewable energy goals, commit to a rigorous energy-use reduction plan, prioritize energy research, and implement an energy policy that creates a viable energy future. The American populace will need to acknowledge the reality of biophysical constraints, and embrace a renewable, energy efficient ‘American way of life’. [2]

I remain convinced we’re up to the task. We just need to start.

Much more on the way.

Sources:

[1] http://www.newgeography.com/content/002394-whatever-happened-the-vision-thing-part-ii?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Newgeography+%28Newgeography.com+-+Economic%2C+demographic%2C+and+political+commentary+about+places%29; Whatever Happened to ‘The Vision Thing’? Part II, by Peter Smirniotopoulos – 09/03/2011
[2] Lambert, J.G.; Lambert, G.P. Predicting the Psychological Response of the American People to Oil Depletion and Declining Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Sustainability 2011, 3, 2129-2156 [p, 2150]. http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/3/11/2129/

You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today
— Abraham Lincoln

Let’s work to make this a very good year for us all….

Imagine, if you will, a nation of 300-plus million people … the vast majority of them good, honest, decent, and hard-working (when they have the opportunity, that is).

Each and every one of these honorable individuals is looking for just about the same things as everyone else: to make a good life for themselves and those to whom they owe a responsibility; to better their circumstances and those of their children in whatever manner best expresses their individuals dreams, ideals, and expectations; to plan for a future that is a bit brighter than the one they faced years ago or contend with now; and a future for their children filled with hope and promise and expectations that the world they inhabit will be brighter and happier and more fulfilling and peaceful and rewarding at all levels.

Not so difficult to imagine, is it? Any objections to this definition of what most might recognize as an expression of the American Dream?

Now imagine this same nation where just 400 people are wealthier as a group than half of that exceptional nation of 300 million citizens (impressive, and not necessarily a problem in and of itself). But imagine further than these 400 people are better served by policies and benefits and advantages than more than 150 million of their fellow citizens. Imagine that the representatives elected by those millions of citizens to serve them instead devote their efforts and energies to making certain that the 400 are always better served and protected than the 300 million.

Probably don’t have to actually explain to anyone residing on Planet Earth in these last couple of years which nation we’re referencing. What comes after shameful?

This is “exceptional”? This is the kind of nation we choose to be? One need not vilify the 400 for their wealth if fairly-earned, but it should not be an objectionable argument that protecting their interests at the expense of all others is not the mark of a great nation and respected leaders.

This is the kind of nation we choose to offer to our children?

It’s been a recurring theme of mine, among others, that we face a set of challenges as daunting as any this nation has ever encountered.

I have not been shy in stating that I believe we are up to the challenge, and that we are indeed an exceptional people. But I have not been hesitant to call out the rampant hypocrisy, stupidity, as well as the appalling lack of integrity and compassion routinely exhibited by “leaders” (and yes, much of my ire is directed to the nonsense and fact-free justifications from some on the Right, whose lack of concern for almost everyone not in that sacred group of 1%-ers is breathtaking in its arrogance and disregard.)

Ideology can be a club, but rarely is it a shield, and in light of what the facts (for those for whom such things matter) tell us about our climate (laughable, tinfoil-hat-wearing, paranoid nonsense like this notwithstanding) and fossil fuel reserves, the narrow-minded and short-sighted ideology guiding too many with influential voices will offer them no protection when the consequences make themselves known to even the most delusional among them. (The attacks from the many who placed their misguided trust in the smooth assurances these “leaders” trotted out from their one-note play books will be another story altogether.)

We’re all going to have to come to some understanding sooner than later about what is most important: prosperity, opportunity, and peace; or preserving a rigid ideology which protects the few at the expense of the many.

Long-term planning, visionary thinking, and the courage and wisdom to act upon what is in the best interests of society, regardless of the short-term consequences, political or otherwise, are the hallmarks of a progressive* society. [1]

* I interpret this term in its broader (i.e., forward-thinking, innovative) sense than the left-leaning political definition more often attributed to it.

What will we demonstrate now and in the years to come? And by “we” I mean all of us, not just the “leaders” to whom we’ve assigned responsibility for our well-being while paying too little attention to what they’re doing with that charge.

Back in May, I began this series about our future by setting out my “table-setters” for the Vision I’ll explore in much greater depth in the months to come:

~ What kind of a nation do we want to be?

~ What do you want for yourself, now and in the days to come?

~ What kind of life are you looking forward to living, whether you are a recent graduate about to enter the workforce, an established professional, or are now in your later years?

~ What kind of community do you want to live in?

~ What kind of environment do you truly believe is most conducive to a life of opportunity and hoped-for prosperity?

~ Will you choose to fear change, or welcome it as an opportunity for you to play a greater part in using it for your own benefit as well as for others—in whatever manner offers the most meaning for you?

~ Do you want to feel as though you have a voice in what your life can and will be, or is being entirely at the mercy of others a better way to live?

~ Do you still harbor at least a bit of hope for better days to come?

~ What do you want for your children and grandchildren?

~ What answers will we provide for them in years to come when they are mired in the difficulties and challenges brought about by an ever-declining supply of fossil fuels and are wondering why we were so short-sighted and narrow-minded when we had so many opportunities to do more?

These are not (or at least they shouldn’t be) idle questions given short-shrift. How we answer these and related questions will determine our future. It’s not rocket science.

Will our future be one filled with great regret for opportunities lost, or one relished because we showed ourselves—individually and collectively—to be the exceptional people we’ve been boasting about? I know where I’m casting my vote and placing my hopes. You?

The great majority of us—the 99%-ers (Left and Right), have a very simple decision to make and abide by from this moment forward: should we continue to advocate affirmatively, support passively, or defend vigorously, the policies and ideologies which in the end (and through most of the journey, for that matter), benefit the 1% and their obedient sycophants regardless of its negative impact on most of us; or do we decide that we and our children (future 99%-ers in most cases) are just important enough that we all need to start doing things differently?

Should each and all of us be denied the better opportunities we have long held as this nation’s most sacred promise because of the actions and favored policies of the few? Do we honor the hopes of the 21st Century or find ourselves catapulted back to the Middle Ages with clear demarcations between the those entitled and those not? We might want to sneak a peek out the front windshield and figure out which road we’re traveling.

We still have choices….

Much more on the way.

Sources:

[1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lance-simmens/california-high-speed-rail-_b_1093423.html; Why We Can Afford High-Speed Rail by Lance Simmens (Deputy Director for Communications, California High-Speed Rail Authority) – 11.17.11

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here, addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

“Peak oil and the events associated with it will be an unprecedented discontinuity in human and geologic history. Peak oil crises will soon confront societies with the opportunity to recreate themselves based on their respective needs, culture, resources, and governance responses. Peak oil will require a change of economic and social systems, and will result in a new world order. The sooner people prepare for peak oil and a post-peak oil life, the more they will be able to influence the direction of their opportunities. Nevertheless, there are probably no solutions that do not involve at the very least some major changes in lifestyles. Consequently, peak oil will probably result in some catastrophic upheavals. Peak oil will also present opportunities to address many underlying societal, economic, and environmental problems.” [1]

In the face of this eventual, inevitable challenge: What kind of a nation do we want to be?

The question has been asked in numerous posts to date, and it remains as viable and vital an inquiry as any other. How we answer determines not just our impending future, but more importantly, the one we pass on to our children….

What kind of a future do we wish for them?

I continue to wait for a logical (or even marginally logical) explanation as to how cutting educational opportunities, taking away health care for more citizens, restricting research and innovation, letting our infrastructure worsen, making no plans for future transportation needs in a world where we simply will not have the same quality and quantity of fossil fuels available to us, while putting even more people out of work, BUT giving the wealthy more tax breaks, is helping anyone other than the wealthy 1% or so among us? It would appear that there is only one genuinely “important” objective one party sees fit to pursue….It is not a consequence-free choice, however.

Policies which would no longer require businesses to abide by health and safety regulations that benefit us all, or for the wealthy to pay a fair share of taxes which provide us (and them) with the fundamental resources and services the great majority of us continue to insist upon, or hoarding more of their income from these expenditures because the Magic Economic Fairy says this trickles down for everyone’s benefit and is thus a sound and acceptable strategy (while it creates even more hardships for more of the rest of us) … why? How does that work?

There is a definitive, narrowly-focused agenda being pursued by a determined segment of the GOP, and its effects are now spilling into national view. The numbingly-ignorant threats to our nation’s (and the world’s) economic well-being by their dangerous posturing on the recent debt-ceiling debate are only among the more visible efforts of a radicalized segment of the Republican Party in their quest to protect the wealthy at the expense of the rest of us. The consequences of these actions are now being or will soon enough be made clear. We have the responsibility to understand what is happening, what will result, and then collectively decide whether that really is where we want to go as a nation. The sacrifices being asked of middle class citizens to preserve the benefits of the wealthy will only grow more onerous as time passes and resources become scarcer.

What kind of a nation do we want to be?

I’m not certain that I’ve encountered an observation that is more disheartening than this one, offered by an anonymous senior House Republican aide and reported on a number of websites in the past day or two, (regarding President Obama’s current job initiative):

“Obama is on the ropes; why do we appear ready to hand him a win?” [2]

Millions of good, decent, hard-working (if only they had the chance) Americans unemployed for months on end; countless families and children suffering as a result of policies and economic truths implemented long before the dreaded Barack Obama took office; the psychological, physical, financial, and emotional toll on countless Americans as yet unknown, and we have an aide to a senior House Republican completely unconcerned about any of this. What’s important is the political scoreboard.

Millions suffering and now with at least a good chance of being helped in some manner by the passage of this or similar legislation? Not my problem! Let’s make ‘em wait another 15 – 18 months when we hopefully have a Republican President in charge. Then … what? Should we expect a different “exceptional” than this cowardly official represents?

It’s easy to be enraged by the audacity of this person’s callousness and breathtaking ignorance, but mostly … I was just saddened. Leaders and their aides are once again demonstrating that their concern is not to help the millions of American in need—no doubt many of whom supported these mean-spirited and narrow-minded representatives—but to make sure President Obama does not put any points up on their watch. This is the exceptional America these people boast of? Seriously? These are the types of “leaders” we’re expecting to guide us into a future far more challenging than any generation before us? Not good….

If we fail to become more informed about the beliefs, actions, and consequences of policies and ideologies promoted by our elected officials, while making no effort to become involved in the process, we’ll have no one to blame but ourselves for the greater hardships most of us will face in the years to come. Who is looking forward to explaining that to their children and grandchildren?

Do we really want to make life even more difficult for them?

Becoming informed leads to understanding that that is exactly what we’re doing, and provides us the opportunities to make a difference by doing….

Choices….

I wrote this several months ago, and my perspective has not changed: “We need a national vision with courageous, honest national leadership (Democrats and Republicans) unconcerned with narrow-minded and short-term ideological nonsense. This is about so much more than partisan principles. It’s about what is best for us as a nation now, next week, next year, and for the rest of this century at the very least. No easy, simple, or inexpensive and consequence-free decisions are on the horizon.”

We need to pay attention to the things that matter beyond next week, and Peak Oil, climate change, and laying the groundwork for our hoped-for future prosperity should be high on that short list of priorities. Gays in the military, President Obama’s status as an alien from some faraway planet, the need for guns in churches (seriously?!) scores of other equally absurd pursuits, “theories” and conspiracy fears, and any other selection from a too-broad assortment of crackpot pseudo-concerns have to give way to our dealing directly with a few very real, serious problems that will require more effort and involvement and talent than almost anything we’ve ever confronted.

I have no doubts that we are up to the challenge … now it’s time to do more than talk the talk. Are we ready to demonstrate what truly makes this nation “exceptional”? Do we lead … or destroy? Stark choices, but sadly not much of an exaggeration.

The fear that motivates these other ludicrous efforts, artfully egged on by too many who have too little interest in what is best for too many of us, must be set aside once and for all. Fear may have its place, but it is occupying too much territory on a too-crowded-as-it-is agenda. We’re better than that, and we need to make the decision to believe that that is true.

Promoting fear and misunderstanding keeps the Rush Limbaughs and the Fox News of the world in some semblance of control and power and prosperity—the rest of us be damned*—but is that really what we want? How exactly are they helping anyone other than themselves?  How is promoting more fear through misrepresentations (I’m trying to be kind) of any benefit to us? Other than stoking mostly irrational fears, what exactly is their contribution to our well-being?

In promoting fears which these “leaders” then convince their uninformed followers to believe, and that they have solutions for these problems (or are “protecting” them), what results instead is that these public figures are then free to pursue their own grander and more selfish agendas: lower taxes, less regulation, less assistance to those most in need. And who does that wind up helping, and who does this wind up harming? They can afford what they need, so who cares about anyone else? Is that how it works?

In a harsher future we’re now in the process of consigning our children and grandchildren to, this is okay?

When so much power and prosperity is confined to so few, what then? As more and more is stripped away from more and more in order to protect the few, greater inequality will result, and a much larger percentage of those so far unaffected by that disparity will then fall into the have-nots, including our children and grandchildren—and perhaps many more of us.

Of course we ought to be legitimately worried about what massive debt will do for the prospects and opportunities of our children and grandchildren, but if we aren’t also doing all that we can right now to provide the programs and resources and opportunities and investments to innovate and grow starting now, they’ll be faced with the double whammy of the burdens of great debt and no viable means to address the problem! What a wonderful prospect … but thank God the wealthy will be okay!

“What is the crisis we face today? We have an economy scarred by mass unemployment, falling wages, and growing insecurity. In the downturn, a staggering 40 percent of American households have been afflicted by unemployment, negative home equity (‘under water homes’ worth less than their mortgages), mortgage payment arrears, or foreclosure. In November 2008, one quarter of Americans aged 50-59 reported that they’d lost more than 35 percent of their retirement savings.

“The [wage] imbalances were obscene before the recession, with finance capturing 40 percent of corporate profits, the wealthiest 1 percent capturing half of the benefits of economic growth, the US running soaring trade deficits, even in high technology products, with China and the world. Our decaying infrastructure, broken health care system, declining educational performance in relation to the industrial world all preceded the fall….

“The right question we need to ask, I would argue, is what is the new strategy, the new foundation for an economy that offers hope for rebuilding America’s economic vitality in the competitive global market place? This requires a clear and bold strategy for revitalizing American manufacturing. It requires investments in areas vital to our future — in modern infrastructure, in education and training, in research and innovation. We need to capture a lead in the green industrial revolution that is sweeping the world. It requires new trade strategy, shackles on financial speculation, empowering workers to capture a fair share of the productivity and profits they help generate to help rebuild America’s middle class. We have to figure out how to afford this, financing what we can, changing priorities and raising revenues where needed. But this is a far different question than just how we get our books in order.” [3]

As Mr. Borosage noted at the conclusion of the passage just quoted: “It is hard to get the right answer when you ask the wrong question.”

Choices….

* (Some will surely find that referenced column intemperate and unnecessarily harsh. Surely some will merely brush this off as the ramblings of a bitter liberal disappointed by the Republican gains in Congress. But there is an underlying message that is being borne out every day now by the actions and legislative efforts of the GOP in Congress and GOP governors across the nation. We need to take at least a half-step back for a moment and think even just a little about where those policy roads are going to lead us, and where they will lead the wealthy few. The destinations are not the same.)

Sources:

[1] http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-21/collapse-nov-21 and http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproject/papers/index.html; Peak Energy, Climate Change, and the Collapse of Global Civilization: The Current Peak Oil Crisis by Tariel Mórrígan; Global Climate Change, Human Security & Democracy, Orfalea Center for Global & International Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara

[2] http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/09/12/316598/why-congress-wont-pass-a-jobs-bill-obama-is-on-the-ropes-why-do-we-appear-ready-to-hand-him-a-win/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+matthewyglesias+%28Matthew+Yglesias%29&utm_content=Google+Reader; Why Congress Won’t Pass A Jobs Bill: ‘Obama Is On The Ropes; Why Do We Appear Ready To Hand Him A Win?’ by Matthew Yglesias on Sep 12, 2011

[3] http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2010114724/americas-confidence-deficit; America’s Confidence Deficit by Robert Borosage – November 24, 2010

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here, addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

“We have designed and built the infrastructure of our transport, electricity, food, and heating systems to suit the unique characteristics of oil, natural gas, and coal; changing to different energy sources will require the redesign of many aspects of those systems.” [1]

Of the many great challenges to be faced as we enter a future with at best uncertain energy supplies, perhaps the most significant one of all is the one so clearly expressed by Richard Heinberg above. Nothing about that process of redesign—start to finish—will be easy, simple, quick, or inexpensive. But the statement encapsulates the full scope of what we face. Daunting to be sure, with prospects for success not guaranteed by any means. Only the most delusional will fail to recognize what’s at stake and what must be dealt with by all of us. If you depend in any way—as producer or consumer—on infrastructure, transportation, electricity, food, or heating, Peak Oil will touch your life.

We can give in to the fears that this is simply too overwhelming a task for us. That’s a choice. Another option is to recognize that these challenges afford us the most opportunity for progress, change, some semblance of continuing growth, and prosperity. Plan for a great deal of trial and error. The more of us who choose to become involved, the greater our chances of successfully meeting, overcoming, and adapting successfully to the changes Peak Oil will impose.

Choices….

It should go without saying, but sadly does not, that curtailing investments in education and research and infrastructure, while doing all that we can to remove the federal government from playing any role in our lives going forward, is just about the dumbest choice we can make. Re-read the few paragraphs above once again if you think that there is some easy and quick solution for this, or any rational solution at all, that can or will be successfully implemented at any level without a greater emphasis on education and research and infrastructure spending, all and only made possible with the federal government supplying us with the framework to make any of this possible. Best of luck to you if you think so.

The onset of Peak Oil has been a long time coming. Not that we can afford to do so, but if we are looking for someone to blame, we all need to look inward. The warnings, ephemeral as they may have been, have been with us for decades. But we did not want to alter the pace of progress and prosperity in order to reflect on where we were going and how we were going to get there, and we have now traveled a good long way down a path of prosperity and progress that will not lead us to any good places at the end of the road.

The farther we continue to travel down that path which relies on fossil fuels to sustain us rather than on a new one marked “new future with new and necessary alternatives”, the longer and more difficult will our backtracking be. What supplied us on the front part of the journey will no longer be there for us on the ride back. We’re going to have to create entirely new systems and infrastructures and modes of production and transportation—or at the very least re-build extensively—in order to adapt to new sources of energy. So relying on current conditions and practices and customs and tinkering only along the edges simply won’t work because we are going to be dependent on entirely different energy resources.

And as I noted several months ago: “Just to keep things interesting, the transition from an oil-based industrial economy to Whatever-Plan-B-Will-Be will have to be achieved using that same declining measure of supply to design and construct and transport and put into place the infrastructure we’ll need to support and maintain this as yet unidentified and not-planned-for-yet Plan B, thus making less available to us for all of our ‘normal’ demands and needs, creating its own set of problems. We’re talking about using a lot of declining energy supplies that’s a lot more expensive, over the course of a lot of years to put into operation a lot of new industrial and economic and civic foundations to (we hope) enable us to maintain some semblance of growth and prosperity—all while using new energy resources that simply will not be as efficient or inexpensive or dependable as oil has been.”

Do we really want to wait even longer so that we make the transition that much more difficult and painful?

A few hundred thousand cities or towns, or several million businesses, or a few hundred million people trying to figure out what to do on their own … not such a good strategy. We cannot isolate bits and pieces of living and producing so as to improve this set of conditions or that lifestyle or this region or that interest group. Everyone and everything will be affected by the decline in conventional oil production and a reliance instead on less efficient unconventional or alternative resources. Without an overall strategy and purpose for what we need do, constrained as we will be going forward, we provide instead a certain recipe for failure.

If nothing else, we’ll need to recognize that, like climate change, Peak Oil is not some event looming on a distant horizon. Peak Oil is happening now. We may not be seeing its effects inside our own home—today—but the impact is being felt, and it will only get progressively more intense as time passes. Not next week or next month or even next year will its impact be obvious to all but the most rigidly delusional, but make no mistake, all the supply and demand factors which contribute to the slide down the other side of that peak in production rate are now in place. We may not notice a handful of snow as it begins its slide down the mountain, either, but we can’t miss it once it’s picked up unstoppable momentum farther down the slope.

So addressing concerns that will get us through just the next few years is not enough, either, and ultimately will be a greater waste of even fewer resources (Can you say “Drill, baby, drill?”). We will have limited resources as it is. Do we use them up in band-aid fashion to deal with what we have to deal with only in the moment, thus creating perhaps unsolvable problems in the years to come? Putting us that much further behind at a time when we will be least able to afford it is not a viable option. (Sounds better than the more direct: “… is an incredibly dumb option.”)

Leaders will need to lead, and so too will we need to pool our own talents and resources and creativity to make the process work. We can minimize the fear and panic that may well up for some who now feel so powerless, and the best antidote will be collective effort beginning at the national level and extending all the way to our own local communities. We’ll need to always maximize efficiencies and utilize economies of scale so that we’re not perpetuating ineffective policies and practices by lack of coordination and planning. The more we all participate and share in the vision for a better future, the better off we’ll all be.

We either take the lead and devote our massive abilities and talents to revitalizing our nation and what we’ll achieve and be in this century—predicated on new rules with new resources and new objectives and new adaptations—or we retrench and insist on business as usual because we’re exceptional….

Back in November and shortly after the mid-term elections, New York Times columnist David Brooks wrote an interesting piece on a “National Greatness Agenda.” His suggestions and inspirations then ring just as true today—perhaps more so:

“I’m optimistic right now. I’m optimistic because while our political system is a mess, the economic and social values of the   country remain sound. My optimism is also based on the conviction that serious, vibrant societies don’t sit by and do nothing    as their governments drive off a cliff….

“[Y]ou can organize [a movement] around a broad revitalization agenda, and, above all, love of country….

“It will take a revived patriotism to motivate Americans to do what needs to be done. It will take a revived patriotism to lift   people out of their partisan cliques. How can you love your country if you hate the other half of it?”

A good and important question. Let’s find our best answers. We’re going to need a lot of them.

[NOTE: on vacation next week. No postings]

Sources:

[1] http://old.globalpublicmedia.com/memo_to_the_president_elect; Museletter [200]: Memo to the President-elect on Energy Realism and the Green New Deal; December 2008

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

For those worried or lamenting that we are no longer exceptional, my simple message is that genuine “greatness” will be ours again if we recognize that we must do things differently now if for no other reason than we have no choice. The reality is that globalization and the proliferation of opportunities and technology and innovation and progress have likewise expanded the complexity of this world as well as the number of people and nations benefitting as a result. All of them are borrowing from the same pool of finite resources. Basic math suggests that problems loom on the horizon.

We cannot and will not go back to the means and methods of growth and prosperity that once were because the onset of Peak Oil will simply make that option unavailable to us—protests and whining and denials and delusions notwithstanding (facts continue to annoy)—but that does not equate to failure or decline or defeat unless that is what we choose by neglect or fear or passive and meek acceptance of our presumed powerlessness.

That we have to change and adapt—and yes, even sacrifice—is not a statement that we have failed, that current policies fail, or that we have indeed lost our exceptionalism. This can no longer be about wanting only what we want and nothing less. Everyone will be affected by the decline in the availability of conventional oil resources, and so everyone must recognize that “sacrifices” of one sort or another will simply be part of the mix—all the strenuous objections duly noted.

The truth is that life is all about change, and in this case, the cumulative effect of great achievements and progress over any decades here and around the world have lead us to a place where great change must take place once again. The scope may be daunting. Our capacity to meet the challenges will be limited only by the level of our commitment.

Failure will be defined by whether or not we meet the challenge to lead the way by active involvement, or if instead we insist on returning to the days of old as the rest of life passes us by, preferring instead that we either leave it to others or hope that some technology or discovery will appear and change all for us in the blink of an eye. A choice, to be sure, just not a very good one….We’re working too hard as it is to preserve what is or once was, and continuing to adopt that problem-solving strategy will do little more than create even more problems. Another choice … likewise not a very good one.

We live in a finite world with finite resources, and the simple truth is that we’ve now used up much of what we were given. What now remains (plentiful though it might still be), poses a challenge given not just the demands of so many more seeking a better life, but because of the basic factors of production: what’s left is now in more-difficult-to-access regions (be it for political or geological reasons); will cost more to produce and bring to market (and guess who pays?); it will be of inferior quality and efficiency; and it will take longer to bring to market—all while demand increases. A simple yet painful set of truths which must first be acknowledged. Step One….

“Preparing our communities for peak oil is no easy task. From local zoning codes to national highway bills, just about every policy and infrastructure decision made since World War II has prioritized driving over walking, bicycling and taking public  transportation. As a result, today most Americans and Canadians are powerless to meet even their most basic daily needs — whether going to work or buying food– without using a petroleum-powered car or truck.” [1]

We will have our work cut out for us. Our first step remains unchanged: we must all become more aware of the challenges to be faced. (This requires our leaders to likewise pay more attention to what matters … easier said than done.) We will then have to find the way and the means to decide on objectives and policies to best help us all adapt, and then with the assistance of local/regional governments and organizations, take the steps needed to adapt as we move forward.

I appreciate the urgent need now to avoid adding more to our plates, and fearing those added burdens. But the truth is that the burdens won’t go away. By embracing them, and making the decision to put forward the best of what we have to offer toward efforts at dealing with these looming challenges, we’ll then give ourselves the best options to manage the adaptations that will have to be made regardless of preferences or political ideologies. It’s the unknown we fear … the known tends to quickly lose much of its power.

If our majority decision is that we don’t or won’t accept and adapt to the changes that a warmer planet and an ever-declining supply of fossil fuels will surely impose upon—deciding against putting forth our best plans and strategies beginning now—then our futures will likely be little more than a succession of escalating mini and not so mini crises always being treated with short-term solutions and ever-diminishing resources with which to fashion increasingly hapless solutions. Our best choice?

I’m not convinced that applying one band-aid after another is our best alternative. Shooting oneself in the foot is no better a strategy than remaining clueless. We cannot continue to make plans for growth and renewal without recognizing that all of this will be done with less of what got us here.

Real courage—the demonstration of our exceptionalism—will come from admitting we now face new challenges and that we can be just as great and just as united in fashioning new ways of living, and leading. Let’s prove it to ourselves first and then demonstrate to the rest of the world that we’re still the greatest nation on earth, and in the face of these extreme challenges soon upon us, we can and will lead the way. In doing so, we’ll create the better future we still hope for, and leave our children a more secure, prosperous, and inspiring world in which to live and make their own contributions.

“Other people think we are losing our exceptionalism. But, the truth is, there’s just been a change in the shape of the world community. In a world of relative equals, the U.S. will have to learn to define itself not by its rank, but by its values. It will be important to have the right story to tell, the right purpose and the right aura. It will be more important to know who you are.” [2]

“We need an economy for the twenty-first century, one that is in sync with the earth and its natural support systems, not one that is destroying them. The fossil fuel-based, automobile-centered, throwaway economy that evolved in western industrial societies is no longer a viable model—not for the countries that shaped it or for those that are emulating them. In short, we need to build a new economy, one powered with carbon-free sources of energy—wind, solar, and geothermal—one that has a diversified transport system and that reuses and recycles everything. We can change course and move onto a path of sustainable progress, but it will take a massive mobilization—at wartime speed….

“One of the questions I hear most frequently is, What can I do? People often expect me to suggest lifestyle changes, such as   recycling newspapers or changing light bulbs. These are essential, but they are not nearly enough. Restructuring the global economy means becoming politically active, working for the needed changes….Saving civilization is not a spectator sport.

“Inform yourself. Read about the issues….You might want to organize a small group of like-minded individuals to work on an issue that is of mutual concern. You can begin by talking with others to help select an issue to work on.” [3]

Do we want to play a part—however small it may seem to be—in helping to direct and shape our future? That choice is ours. The truth is that it will be difficult. A greater truth is that we are in fact up to the task and the challenge. It’s time to put that on display.

To be continued….

Sources:

[1] http://postcarboncities.net/node/3593; Showing leadership on peak oil – Daniel Lerch, Posted 8 October 2008

[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/14/opinion/14brooks.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss; Ben Franklin’s Nation By David Brooks – Dec 14, 2010

[3] http://www.earth-policy.org/book_bytes/2011/wotech13_ss5; Let No Man Say It Cannot Be Done by Lester R. Brown – April 19, 2011 [Adapted from Chapter 13, “Saving Civilization,” in Lester R. Brown, World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2011)]

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here, addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

“A Gallup poll from late last year found that 80% of Americans believe their country ‘has a unique character that makes it the greatest country in the world.” There are very few political propositions which can command 80% support; that this one does shows just how much American exceptionalism is solidified as political orthodoxy in the United States.’” [1]

For all the silliness about whether our President believes us to be an “exceptional” nation, the truth is that in many ways we are exceptional—at least our history, imperfect as it surely has been, suggests no less. (Although the insanity of the debt-ceiling debates legitimately calls that notion into question. The behavior of some “leaders” has been nothing short of both appalling and embarrassing.)

But being exceptional carries with it responsibilities, and not just on the part of our elected officials, those in the media, or industrial, academic, and business leaders.

Exceptionalism is not a birthright or an entitlement simply because….Exceptionalism—whatever its definition—must be earned, and reinforced by each succeeding generation—forged amid great conflict and challenge which has so often called on us to find our better selves and rise above petty and idiotic discourse. We have more than our fair share of that now, and we might want to collectively consider bringing the senseless dialogues that predominate to a not-so-merciful end, and soon. We’re better than that.

If we truly wish to believe and know ourselves to still be exceptional amid all the chaos and challenges and burdens that encompass us, then we need to harness a vision for the future that is not just incrementally better than this one, using the same resources and methods and strategies and ideologies that brought us to here and now. Peak Oil is going to change pretty much all of the dynamics.

We must ask ourselves—individually and community-wide—what we believe are the best opportunities for growth and prosperity going forward, and we must ask this with full awareness that we approach a future very different from the past and the present we will soon leave behind. In the years to come, the energy source which empowered and enabled us to rise to our lofty perch atop the world of technological marvel and progress will gradually but steadily fail to meet our expectations of ongoing, ready availability; ease of access, and affordability.

One of the traits which determine the extent to which an individual or group can be rightfully considered “exceptional” is the courage and honesty with which they face the challenges that lay before them and those which will surely arise in later days. Delusion, misrepresentations, outrights lies, obfuscation, confusion, and all their brethren have no role to play in the efforts required of exceptional nations. Leaders should know that being skilled at those efforts is not the “exceptionalism” we aspire to.

We will either create a new future with all of its advances and opportunities and expectations/hopes for prosperity and security and success by first acknowledging that our great progresses of the past have led us to a point where our the fossil fuel resources are on an inexorable path of decline—necessitating new ways of producing and consuming—or we stubbornly, foolishly, and futilely try to re-create the past by insisting that business as usual must prevail. Soon enough, and long before we have fully transitioned our industrial and cultural lifestyles away from fossil fuel dependency, that is the great truth we’ll confront.

Crisis or opportunity?

As difficult as it is to accept, life as we’ve know it will no longer be the same. As many other nations pursue their own ambitions and do what they can to grow their economies and rightfully fashion a better quality of life for their citizens—seeking in many respects to become more like the U.S.—just hoping or stubbornly insisting that we’re still exceptional just because we say so (or insist we must be just because … ) is not enough.

“Put another way, enthusiasts for American exceptionalism seem to love America because they see it as great and supreme, and there is the possibility that they might cease loving it if it were no longer great and supreme. When Americans say that ours is the greatest country in the history of the world, it is obviously not just a description of how they think America compares, but a claim that they must be in some way the greatest people in the history of the world by virtue of being Americans. It is self-glorification masquerading as praise of something else.

“To rephrase [Julien] Sanchez’s observation in terms of power, celebrating Americanness and congratulating ourselves for ‘our’ greatness are ways for those who feel relatively powerless to see themselves as participating in U.S. global hegemony and American ‘leadership’ in the world. This may help explain why enthusiasts of American exceptionalism on the right have become even more attached to the empire at the moment when conditions at home have worsened and America can least afford so many unnecessary commitments around the globe. It is also why there is such intense resistance to the reality that America   is experiencing relative decline in its political preeminence compared with other nations. If there is relative decline, conservative Americanists insist that it is only temporary and the result of a government that does not embrace American exceptionalism, which they then have to define narrowly so as to exclude many moderate and liberal Americanists who otherwise share their assumptions.” [2]

Not only are we better than that, circumstances mandate that we actively demonstrate it now in as many forums and to confront as many challenges as needed.

We need to play a bigger role in determining the course and quality of our future, and we do not succeed at that if we decide that we’re going to let the marketplace, “leaders,” and corporations dictate it all while we passively go on with our lives in hopes that this will all work itself out. The choice to blindly entrust our well-being to those others does not absolve anyone from responsibility for the consequences. Given the mind-numbingly ignorant statements from—and the destructive, narrow-minded, and shortsighted-in-the-extreme policies proposed by—a determined group of national “leaders,” that choice will exact a high cost on all of us.

More information about what we face, what options we have, and what the various consequences might be is always a good thing to possess. Participating in the planning and strategy can only be a better option than just hoping that others are indeed acting in our best interests. Evidence suggests something entirely different and is perhaps not fully understood by the electorate.

It’s not the leaders who will define and demonstrate exceptionalism (God help us if that were the case!). It is what we as citizens offer, share, and contribute which will provide the examples and the inspirations. We cannot be an exceptional nation if we abdicate responsibility to understand and participate in the process of envisioning and creating a better future for each and all of us—especially one where the fundamental tools and resources we’ve relied upon for decades will no longer be at the ready. (For those who might be looking for some added motivation, this recent essay provides an abundance of food for thought.)

We need a new vision for what a strong, prosperous, successful, “exceptional” America can and will be, and that can only come from us. Ceding that critical responsibility to “leadership” cannot be one of our options. It’s all fine and well to respect our leaders for the roles they undertake and the responsibilities they assume on our behalf. A thankless job, clearly….

But respect for them does not mean abdicating all personal responsibility for planning and participating. If we don’t provide leaders with both the demands to be met and at least some of the guidelines for attainment, then we run the risk that other interests (most often those governed by stronger financial motivations) will prevail, and too often they do so at our expense. In order for us to fulfill our roles, we need to make the effort to become better informed. Given the public discourses of recent times, evidence suggests too many are falling woefully short. Leaders, and the media, share blame.

“[A] disengaged community in a democracy tends to make bad political choices. When people work with others to identify problems, recognize resources, and implement solutions, they understand far better what is necessary to make their community what they want it to be. And they support both government and community efforts to address these issues much more fully. Problems get solved and communities achieve their dreams.” [3]

We thus need to not just encourage our local/regional governments to step up the pace of planning for a future supported by different sources of energy, we’ll need to become more involved as well. It can be as simple as get-togethers with neighbors to discuss matters that will now or soon affect our immediate community, with someone then taking the mantle of communicating interests or concerns to local leaders. Off the top of my head, two such organizations at the national level are AmericaSpeaks (here) and The Center for Deliberative Democracy (here). I’ll have more to say about this specific topic in an upcoming post.

I’m sure there are many effective, local organizations and efforts as well. These more structured gatherings of citizens across your city/town will likely be an important prelude to the topics becoming main agenda items for local leaders. They will prove to be even more important—critically so—as time passes. (Andrew Levison recently wrote a fascinating article on citizen participation that’s well worth reading.)

It is in our local communities where the most immediate impacts of Peak Oil will be felt … be it shortages of fuel, restrictions on availability, impacts of those limitations on our abilities to get around (thus reflecting a community’s current alternative transportation capacities), or the availability of all kinds of goods, services, and supplies as they in turn are impacted by declining fossil fuel availability.

With an understanding of these and many related concerns articulated at the federal level, our local communities should have at the very least some framework from which to then fashion solutions or formulate adaptations based on resources (e.g., available mass transit in the particular community) to help local residents adjust to Peak Oil’s direct impacts. The only way these more localized efforts can prove most effective is by having an educated community which understands the challenges and has already begun the process of structuring responses.

Leaving all of the details until the last minutes is not where anyone will want to be.

The choice is ours.

I’ll continue with this theme next time….

Sources:

[1] http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/03/29/exceptionalism?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+salon%2Fgreenwald+%28Glenn+Greenwald%29; Obama and American exceptionalism By Glenn Greenwald – March 29, 2011

[2] http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2010/11/05/patriotism-vs-american-exceptionalism/; Patriotism vs. American Exceptionalism by Daniel Larison – November 5th, 2010

[3] Reconnecting Government with People: Communities Solving Problems – Steps for building civic engagement infrastructure, and developing a culture of respect, sharing, and learning, to address our communities’ concerns and realize our dreams. A White Paper from the Local Democracy Collaborative by Jim Diers, Matt Leighninger, Paul Leistner, Valerie Lemmie, Ken Thomson, and Hank Topper, 3/16/11

[NOTE: This series (first one here) spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here, addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

“Where there is no vision, the people perish”
— Book of Proverbs.

“We face a choice going forward. There’s a kind of false dichotomy, a false choice that we’re being presented between policies on the left or policies on the right. It’s not left or right, it’s forward or backward. It’s a choice between investing in the future, leaving a better future for the next generation just like parents and grandparents did for us, or ignoring these hard choices and sentencing the next generation to a lower standard of living, to fewer opportunities, and a future that we could do better by.” [1]

Are we really content with what is happening to us? Too many polls suggest we’re not, and given what we’ve all been experiencing and enduring of late, that should surprise absolutely no one. It’s nonetheless discouraging.

“Less than one-third of Americans are confident of reaching the ‘American Dream,’ and huge majorities say it will only get harder for their children and grandchildren, according to a comprehensive new survey on the American Dream. Worse, according to the second annual American Dream Survey from the Xavier University Center for the Study of the American Dream, only 23 percent of Americans see the nation on the rise with a majority—52 percent—saying China now represents the future….
“The survey is a depressing review of how people view their situation and the nation in general. Among the findings:
“– Only 23 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction with 67 percent saying ‘things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track.’
– Just 27 percent say they are ‘extremely confident’ of reaching the American Dream, down from 40 percent a year ago.
– 78 percent say they have less trust in government.
– 69 percent feel it will be harder to reach the American Dream than it was for their parents; 73 percent say it will be still harder for their children or grandchildren to reach the American Dream.
– 23 percent believe America is a country on the rise, down from 32 percent last year. Only 39 percent believe America represents the future, with 57 percent saying that the world looks to other nations now. And 52 percent say it’s China that represents the future.” [2]

We face perhaps the most challenging set of conditions anyone of this generation has ever faced: politically, culturally, militarily, economically, globally, and environmentally—in addition to what we face with regard to the continuing ready availability of our energy resources and climate change. Our efforts, such as they have been to date, are not helping. While we may not be the actors directly responsible for sowing so much discord and stalemate, our passivity nonetheless enables. This should change, and we have the power and the wisdom to do so.

There are no easy answers to the challenges we face. There are no quick solutions. There are no readily apparent decisions which will effectively cover all of these challenges at once. There are no inexpensive outcomes. And there are no successful options that will arise or be implemented without a much more active involvement from all of us. Mostly, we’re going to have to learn to and prepare ourselves for adaptation. Peak Oil is not a challenge to be solved as we traditionally understand the concept so much as it will be an adjustment and revamping of … well, almost everything we produce and consume and require.

I’m already on record as emphasizing the importance of local government involvement as we move forward into a future with very different amounts and kinds of energy resources to power us. Guidance, as I’m suggesting, will have to come from the national level, and that will be no easy task, either. Our media will have to move beyond the normal and too often dysfunctional chatter, too.

No matter what will be proposed: more drilling; less drilling; Arctic exploration; no Arctic exploration; conservation; business (and waste) as usual; fuel efficiency; fuel use with no considerations at all; smart growth; sprawl; regulations; libertarian industrial freedom; mass transit; drive ‘til we drop; none of the above, etc.etc., some group will propose 15 reasons why this or that option can’t/won’t work, or is pointless, or all we need instead is blah, blah, blah.

Every policy proposal and suggestion will have critics with all kinds of both legitimate and irrelevant criticisms. I’m not sure we’d know how to interact otherwise!

But the most critical issue to be addressed by all of will be more direct: do we bog ourselves down by nit-picking—working harder to find out why something won’t work or why it is not perfect in every way under every condition and for every person—or do we adopt a grander strategy that will under no conditions be perfect or even acceptable to everyone, but provides us with the best long-term opportunities in the face of Peak Oil. If we cannot get beyond problem-solving-business-as-usual, we’ll be having these pointless partisan battles for another century … assuming we survive intact that long.

Do we lead? Can we? The current insanity that’s passing for debt-ceiling deliberations and the appalling lack of integrity and intelligence which now passes for one party’s political strategy suggests—sadly—that we cannot lead … not if this circus is any indication.

Do we make the difficult choices we know going in do not and cannot possibly meet with everyone’s approval (even our own), but which have as their purpose first and foremost a vision about where we need to be 10, 20, 50 years from now (or, to be more specific, where we want our children to be) in a world without fossil fuels at the ready? Can we become motivated, informed, and guided always by providing ourselves and our children the best opportunities for a prosperous life given the conditions we will then be faced with and with the resources then at our disposal? Will we continue to make the perfect the enemy of the good to justify narrow ideologies and self-interests? Can we truly plan for the long term, summoning the courage to recognize the great changes that are soon upon us?

There is and will be simply too much complexity, too much change across too many boundaries and industries and communities resulting from the steady decline in fossil fuel availability as time moves on. Without guidance and vision originating at the national level, leaving implementation and adaptation as needed to the regional/local communities, we’re very quickly going to find out that 300 million people and several million businesses and media personnel and academic advisors will each have their own idea about what to do and not do as we confront Peak Oil. “Chaotic” doesn’t even begin to explain how that strategy will work out.

A future with diminishing fossil fuel resources—our future, more specifically—is going to be so different and in so many ways, and so much more constrained by that fact, it’s unlikely anyone can legitimately wrap their mind around that eventuality at this moment. We have relied on inexpensive, readily-available and easily-produced fossil fuels for so much, so long, in so many ways, for so many products and services that it is just about inconceivable right now to appreciate how many changes are in the offing. Anyone thinking that freedom to be free as one pleases without regard for others (so long as the same rights and freedoms of every other person are similarly respected) is sheer fantasy in a post-Peak Oil world.

A fossil fuel-driven life is all any of us have ever known, and there are virtually no aspects of production, transportation, or consumption that doesn’t depend in some part on inexpensive, readily-available and easily-produced fossil fuels. That is most certainly not going to change dramatically overnight, but the situation we’ll soon be facing simply isn’t going to get any better if all we’re counting on for many more years is more inexpensive, readily-available and easily-produced fossil fuels.

Transitioning to a non-fossil-fuel based system will be no easy or quick process. Very few aspects of our lives—personal or commercial— will be untouched. The evolution of new systems and production modes and transportation options will be years/decades in the making.  Accepting that is step one. The creativity and vision and skill and sense of community that first built this nation are the very same traits we will need once again as we usher in a new future.

It can be done! The choice is ours.

How do we get there? What must we do now?

Ideology has no place here. Both the Left and the Right are going to have to compromise, and in some cases perhaps a great deal. The overriding question will always be: what kind of a nation do we want to be?

This is about doing what is best for the most. The only way this is going to happen is for all of us to pitch in, to work from national objectives guiding—in most instances—regional/local efforts, which also happen to provide each of us with the best opportunities to play a role. We must begin focusing on the strategies, and not the ideologies. It’s okay for each side to not have the best solutions or positions all the time! We’re all in this together and each side does and will have great value to contribute, but the efforts must be predicated on the recognition that we enter a future vastly different from the past which brought us to this moment. Political philosophies will serve as excellent talking points at the dinner table, and that may serve as their only value for some time to come. Peak Oil’s impact is so much more than that.

Do we want to stay afloat as leaders for another day, guided by our partisan interests and ideologies, or do we lead for decades to come?

Do we want our children to be part of a better future? The choices will be ours….

Sources:

[1] http://transportation.nationaljournal.com/2011/04/infrastructure-whats-it-going.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+njgroup-transportation+%28Transportation+Experts–Q+with+Answer+Previews%29; USDOT Deputy Secretary John Porcari, quoted by Laura Barrett in her reply: Don’t Wait for a Miracle, Work for It, in the National Journal series: Infrastructure: What’s It Going to Take? By Fawn Johnson – April 4, 2011

[2] http://www.usnews.com/news/washington-whispers/articles/2011/03/30/fewer-confident-of-reaching-american-dream; Fewer Confident of Reaching American Dream By Paul Bedard – March 30, 2011

[NOTE: This series spins off from a recent series of posts in which I’ve discussed the need for all of us to move in a new direction as we anticipate the challenges to be confronted as a result of declining oil production in the years to come. The impact will be felt by all of us in one degree or another (a separate series, which began here and was re-established more recently here, addresses some of the day-to-day impacts.) It’s time to turn our attention to what the New Direction might be....]

~~~

“Clearly, we are entering into a prolonged period of profound change, an era of “unintended consequences.” The changes that are coming our way will profoundly alter not only how we live, but even how we conceive of ourselves, how we think about the world, and how we see the future. And not only will we have to learn to cope with severe disruption to our conception of ourselves and the world, but we will also need to forge a new vision of the world that we can live by. Where will that vision come from?” [1]

Well, at the risk of excessive and perhaps even off-the-chart arrogance, I’m thinking that someone has to start the broader discussion, so why not me, now? Before we can provide answers and solutions, we must first understand what is at stake and at least begin the dialogue. Since someone has to take the first step, I’m volunteering.

To that end, I thought it might make sense to provide a template for where I envision going with this discussion about Peak Oil and our future. I won’t pretend that every answer is the solution, but we have to begin somewhere….

“[I]n the tradition of Albert Einstein amongst others … it frequently is not the answer but the question that poses the deepest insight.” [2]

So here are my table-setters:

What kind of a nation do we want to be?

What do you want for yourself, now and in the days to come?

What kind of life are you looking forward to living, whether you are a recent graduate about to enter the workforce, an established professional, or are now in your later years?

What kind of community do you want to live in?

What kind of environment do you truly believe is most conducive to a life of opportunity and hoped-for prosperity?

Will you choose to fear change, or welcome it as an opportunity for you to play a greater part in using it for your own benefit as well as for others—in whatever manner offers the most meaning for you?

Do you want to feel as though you have a voice in what your life can and will be, or is being entirely at the mercy of others a better way to live?

Do you still harbor at least a bit of hope for better days to come?

What do you want for your children and grandchildren?

What answers will we provide for them in years to come when they are mired in the difficulties and challenges brought about by an ever- declining supply of fossil fuels and are wondering why we were so short-sighted and narrow-minded when we had so many opportunities to do more?

Choices….Opportunities….

I hope to provide some answers or at least some ideas for consideration, opening the door to the dialogue we must engage in soon. Others are more than welcome to join in. The lengthy, complex, and at times contentious discussions must begin.

The problems will not solve themselves. The scope and breadth of the impact which declining oil production will have on all of us necessitates that as many of us as possible become involved in whatever manner we feel most comfortable. We each have a voice and a contribution to offer. There is little doubt that achieving some semblance of national consensus on where we go, how we get there, and what we each and all must do is highly idealistic and in the moment, seemingly impossible to achieve and attain, but it is where we must eventually be.

Educating ourselves is step one, as I’ve previously noted (here).

“You’re either part of the solution or you’re part of the problem”
— attributed to Eldridge Cleaver, among others

“The standard response is that people are busy, and I get that. But as Isaac Chotiner persuasively argued a while back, ‘[W]hen you live in a democracy, there are very few good excuses for not having minimal knowledge about what is going on in the world….Voters can choose to be ignorant or disinterested, but that choice is fundamentally their own.’” [3]

“If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem, but the perpetual human predicament is that the answer soon poses its own problems.” (Sydney J. Harris)

It’s easy to see that both variations of the theme apply. There are no clear-cut solutions to challenges of this magnitude that will not create a not-always-beneficial domino effect across the industrial and political landscapes. But ignoring it all is no solution at all. Corny as it may be, we are the change, but spouting the slogan and doing nothing about it avails us little.

More importantly, we must move beyond just an awareness of key facts and considerations on these crucial topics and take it all one step further by understanding the philosophy behind the issues and proposals. Just as essential, we must then understand the (sound-bite free) consequences—the real ones … the ones based on facts, the ones that will affect you and your significant other and your children and your family and neighbors and community. As this series evolves, I’ll soon discuss ideas about exactly how we can become more involved and develop the skills we need to participate.

We can either choose to make our contribution—whatever it may be (no rules about that)—or we instead accept that others are going to make decisions for us—decisions they may or may not be qualified to make; decisions which they may or may not make with our best interests at heart. There’s a lot of that going around these days….

But as I have noted, that part of the process will only carry us so far if our leaders don’t meet us on that path by being honest with us, and there are too many indications that that is not the case. To that end, I then discussed in a 4-part series (first one here) the importance of sound, ethical, honest leadership … a likelihood which seems to recede from possibility a bit more each day.

The recent near-shutdown of our government highlights the intense and acrimonious partisanship which sadly dominates our public and political discourse. Can anyone confess to being happy with this? Are we—should we—be content to let the loudest (and too often, the most narrow-minded partisans) speak for us and thus dictate public policy which impacts the great majority of us far more than it does the Warren Buffetts and the Bill Gates and the Koch brothers of this world? Have we indeed become completely powerless in the face of the moneyed interests which too often and in too many ways dictate how “our” elected officials act? Is nonsense like Senator Jon Kyl’s recent, intentional lying about Planned Parenthood’s involvement in abortion practice so as to bolster (?!) his position what we must now meekly accept? Have “leaders” become that arrogant and uncaring about us? Is there any integrity left?

Isn’t there still a place for your viewpoint? Do you still want that opportunity?

Let’s give leaders our best so that their efforts merit the highest levels of respect and cooperation. While we’re at it, let’s be clearer about which values really matter the most. Can we be more inclusive than we now demonstrate? The more of us working together for the same purposes, sharing the same objectives and values, with same ends and purposes and aspirations to guide our efforts, the better off we’ll all be! Smaller groups sharing more limited and narrow-minded perspectives and values are creating only more strife. Given the challenges we’ll soon be facing, that’s not our highest and best strategy. (The more intent one is on preserving one’s perspective and viewpoint against all contrary opinions, no matter how valid they may be, the more likely that conflict is the only outcome. Is that really the best strategy?)

Are we so unwilling and insecure and frightened by what we are now dealing with that we simply cannot bring ourselves to admit that others may have better ideas and more knowledge and truth and facts? Are we instead willing to risk perpetual discord no matter what harm that causes us and others? Are we willing to decline the needed efforts and expertise of others because their personal lifestyle choices or nationalities or private religious beliefs or reasoned but contradictory political philosophies may not mesh neatly with our own? Seriously? At what point do we come to realize that narrow-minded ignorance is not the best face for us to put forth on the world stage?

What kind of a nation do we want to be?

We need a better vision to guide us. And for those looking for reasons why a smaller role for government is what’s called for, I’ll save you the time and tell you this is not the place to be. As the main theme of this series expands in the months to come, I’ll discuss in greater detail why the libertarian/conservative-inspired vision of small government is completely inappropriate a strategy to pursue in light of the challenges we face. (How a bigger role for a better government with honest leadership takes shape will determine whether this ideology is valuable and a necessary pursuit.) Let’s begin with all that needs to be done, and then decide what role the various players will be required to fulfill.

Once I resume this series*, I’ll be discussing a variety of issues pertinent to the Peak Oil challenges we’ll soon be facing. The basic premise as I move forward from that point will be a simple one: local/regional efforts, production, and governance will become critically important—both necessitating and providing opportunities for greater involvement on our parts—but federal guidelines, contribution, and vision must provide the framework for those efforts.

The policies and guidelines supporting those objectives will require a focus on such policies and principles as smart growth, more transportation options, and more research and implementation of alternative energy strategies—while educating ourselves and others of the great changes that will and must take place across all levels of industry, production, commerce, and lifestyles. To that end, there will be a great deal of discussion on greater citizen involvement, energy and industrial policies, the political/partisan elements which too often hinder and harm much more than they assist, and a more detailed role for local governments.

I hope you’ll find the offerings and discussions meaningful, if not provocative and helpful as a starting point for what we all need to do.

We’re so much better than what we’re demonstrating. We need to show it, because we are going to need to be better in the years to come.

“The point is that the way we live together now, the way we govern ourselves, the way we arrange our physical spaces and our commerce, the way we do economics and measure prosperity—all these have to be changed in creative ways if we want to achieve the goal of sustainable prosperity. All these changes require … wait for it … innovation. Innovations in the way we think, interact, and structure our lives require just as much imagination, intelligence, persistence, and funding as innovations in technology.” [4]

Crisis, or opportunity?

* I expect the next post in this series will be published on May 26. Meanwhile, enjoy the intervening posts, as part of my accompanying series about the impact of Peak Oil. I’ll continue to offer similar posts every now and then in the months to come. (I’m taking this detour because I will be away most of next week—along with my wife and others—attending and celebrating my lovely daughter’s college graduation in New Orleans.)

Sources:

[1] http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-26/evolution-transition-us; The evolution of Transition in the U.S. Published by Transition Times on Fri, 11/26/2010 [Original article: http://transition-times.com/blog/2010/11/26/the-evolution-of-transition-in-the-u-s/ by Michael Brownlee]
[2] http://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2011/4/4/mobilitys-diminishing-returns.html; Mobility’s Diminishing Returns by Charles Marohn – April 4, 2011
[3] http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2011_03/028551.php; PONDERING THE ‘HOW DUMB ARE WE?’ QUESTION by Steve Benen – March 21, 2011 [original quote, here: http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/76367/notes-the-average-voter]
[4] http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51627; Why Bill Gates is wrong by Grist – 02/17/2010

[NOTE: This is the latest installment in an ongoing PeakOilMatters series (which started here). It’s about finding a new and better vision to get to, through, and beyond Peak Oil and its widespread impact on what we produce, how we produce, and how we live. We won’t be falling off a cliff tomorrow, and the full brunt of Peak Oil’s effects won’t be experienced all at once, either. Gas and oil do not have to disappear entirely, nor do gas prices have to rise into the stratosphere before Peak Oil’s impact is felt.
Gradually, but inexorably, changes will be in the offing, however. We need to come to a better understanding of this, and start preparing ourselves now for the lengthy transition and just as lengthy ongoing impact of Peak Oil on all of us. Many issues must of necessity be considered, and I hope to make a contribution to the public dialogue we need to have. I hope you’ll find the discussion of these objectives enjoyable as well as beneficial. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice just might be our best hope.]

~~~

“‘By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.’” [Source: PeakOil.net]
“While there are two ‘coulds’ in that statement, the mere possibility that such an imminent arrival and massive shortfall could be true should give every prudent adult a few second thoughts about what the future may hold. If surplus production capacity disappears in just a couple of years, there’s an entire world of planning that should really take place beforehand at the international, national, community and personal levels.” [1]

That statement needs little embellishment or explanation. It goes to the very heart of my reasoning for developing this lengthy series, and coming from someone like Chris Martenson, who has earned legitimate credibility, I can only hope that the underlying message will soon resonate with many more officials and citizens.

Several weeks ago, in the course of gathering my notes and writing rough drafts of this and my last post, I came across yet another well-reasoned and pointed discussion from Lindsay Curren at Transition Voice (here). In expressing her own concerns about the lack of leadership on the subject of Peak Oil, she offered this:

“In spite of the difficulties President Obama faces in navigating this minefield, he does have one trump card that can turn his prospects around. He just doesn’t know it yet….
“Like other presidents, Obama has reminded the American people that oil is a finite resource, that it’s running out and can’t be replaced. He’s talked about how conservation and a shift to a broad portfolio of renewables and mass transit can, at the very least, shift the direction while also creating jobs. In essence, he’s hinted at America 2.0, the lower-energy version.
“What he hasn’t done is come out boldly and say the words ‘peak oil,’ explaining to the American people that this is the end of the era of cheap energy for good.”

Chris Martenson adds this, from the same article cited above:

“The impact of peak oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency deserves our very highest attention – but, it turns out, some important players seem to be paying no attention at all.”

What Chris suspected, and as was confirmed in a presentation (by Rick Munroe) cited in his article, is that while our military (among other nations’) is definitely concerned about Peak Oil and its impact on the operations and responsibilities it’s currently charged with and will likely face in years to come, nothing is being done at the national political level. (Munroe himself, in another article, offered this: “This author has yet to encounter a study conducted by a military analyst which dismisses peak oil as an implausible, alarmist issue.”) There are no governmental departments and no bureaucrats who’ve been assigned the task of figuring out anything about what we should do.

Acknowledging as have others that electoral politics hampers our officials from dealing with long-range planning and problems, Martenson added:

“So I came away from the ASPO conference pondering two completely polar trends that combined to create a lasting discomfort. On the one hand we have more and more private and military organizations coming to the conclusion that peak oil is imminent and will change everything, possibly disruptively. On the other hand there appear to be no plans within the civilian government to deal with a liquid fuels emergency.”

Uh-oh! We’re already years behind in establishing anything approximating even a minimal understanding of the variety of challenges and impacts that will arise from declining oil production. That energy resource so thoroughly permeates just about everything we own, use, or do that it is a nearly incomprehensible task to imagine how much will have to change when we’re faced with less oil for everything. So not planning or even discussing it will help us … how? And Republican budget proposals to cut even more funding for research and innovation so that the Koch brothers et al pay even less in taxes helps us … how?

A few months ago, I wrote this, and my assessment has not changed:

“Plans are in order—lots of plans. This is no quick-fix modern day dilemma, and it is most definitely not a challenge that we can rely on the “market” to solve on its own. What remains just as doubtful is the ability of our national government to lead the way, and that’s a problem. I’m not sure right now that Congress could easily, quickly, or even by majority vote declare December 25 as Christmas Day. Certainly they couldn’t do so if President Obama offered that up. This is not encouraging, and it’s even less so when we have a more-than-insignificant number of “leaders” who cannot seem to accept anything that even remotely resembles scientific fact.
“We’re going to need a national government with national leaders who can … you know, lead; people who actually understand what is at stake, have some kind of vision for what we need to do now and going forward, are willing to articulate that to the citizenry, can explain what we all have to contribute, and are willing to make the tough choices devoid of ideology. Declining oil production has absolutely nothing to do with conservative or liberal philosophies of governance.
“We’ve got an entire industrial and commercial infrastructure that is going to have to be modified, re-built, or in many cases created anew to allow us to move forward with something other than oil to power it. There’s no pretending otherwise, and waiting is simply not an option any more—not that it has been.”

If we can’t count on our leadership to so much as give voice to the problem’s name, then planning and implementing is rendered all the more difficult. My effort—to offer some semblance of comprehensive proposals and a vision for how we might address this, as inconsequential as the attempt might be—will at least be a start. But Lindsay Curren is absolutely correct: the President has to start telling us the truth about this. It is beyond inconceivable to think that he, or any of his recent predecessors, knows absolutely nothing about Peak Oil! This is not a tiny little problem that just crossed someone’s radar screen for the first time yesterday afternoon.

The truth will also include clarifying a bit of disingenuous fact-telling called out by Gregor Macdonald in a piece he wrote at the beginning of the year:

“One of the methods EIA Washington and IEA Paris have increasingly relied on in recent years to obscure the very serious and now very real problem of oil depletion is to include biofuels and natural gas liquids in the accounting of global oil production. The technique that both agencies use to conduct this obfuscation is a familiar one, in which the key information is aggregated (buried) into a much larger barrage of data and presentations….
“In order to rebut this Secrecy by Complexity it’s the obligation of responsible energy analysts to explain the falsehood of adding biofuels and natural gas liquids to measures of oil production. The reason is simple: natural gas liquids are not oil, and they contain only 65% of the BTU of oil. Worse, biofuels are barely an energy source themselves and are the product of a conversion process of other energy inputs. Accordingly, the world is not producing 84, or 85, or 86 million barrels of oil per day. Nor will the depletion of oil be solved by the production of biofuels in the future.
“When the EIA in Washington falsely composes such forecasts, aggregating future natural gas liquids and ethanol into a supply picture for ‘oil’ as they do each year in The Annual Energy Outlook, this disables the public’s ability to accurately understand the true outlook for global oil supply.”

We’re already burdened enough by the deniers and certain groups of elected officials for whom disclosing facts and engaging in truth-telling are onerous exercises to be avoided as often as possible. We don’t need this Administration to add to the confusion.

Expanding on a quote I recently offered from Ezra Klein, his observation seems especially apropos in this context:

“In order for most Americans to tune out of politics and not get ripped off due to their inattention, politicians need to be acting in an honorable, ‘non-self-interested’ way.
“This is why things like partisanship, evidence of corruption, the public understanding of earmarks and so forth are so damaging. They’re signs that the process in Washington is broken. As Hibbing and Theiss-Morse note, most Americans don’t have terribly strong views on policy and figure people of good faith could fairly easily come to agreement on the nation’s major problems. When that’s not happening, people get scared. They’re not paying attention, and they’ve certainly not hired high- powered lobbyists to butter up members of Congress with attention and campaign contributions. But they know others have. So they worry — rightly — that their disinterest leaves them holding the bag for the favors that powerful interests are getting. And the worse the process looks from afar, the more they figure they’re right to be worried.” [2]

It’s not necessary to belabor the point that no one wants any more problems to contend with. Certainly problems that go to the very core of what enables all of us to lead the lives we do, produce the goods and services we offer, transport ourselves in the variety of ways we do, and enjoy the benefits of our ingenuity and industry are major challenges no one has the stomach to deal with voluntarily. But deal with it we must. The problems and restrictions—which a declining oil supply is going to impose on us (no matter how fiercely we choose to deny or ignore it)—call on each of us to wade in and play a role in coming to terms with Peak Oil.

As I’ve urged in recent posts, we have a responsibility to educate ourselves and find a place where we can participate and contribute to the massive undertakings needed to adapt to a future with different sources of energy. But we cannot do it alone, and our efforts may prove to be nothing but futile if we aren’t getting direction and the truth from our leaders. We can then all find a place in the big middle to roll up our sleeves and get to work.

“When we begin to tell the truth we can tell better stories than anyone who has to tell lies. It is a story about heroism, and responding to dreadful odds, about courage and self-sacrifice for the betterment of the future – all the things that everyone actually gives a damn about that are never asked of them. It is so easy to say that other people are fools when those people have never heard anything but lies and they have never been asked to be more than consumers. Time to ask. Time to tell the truth.” [3]

Amen to that.

More to come….

[NOTE: Owing to out-of-town commitments, this will be my only post of the week.]

Sources:

[1] http://seekingalpha.com/article/230013-future-chaos-there-is-no-plan-b-for-oil; Future Chaos: There Is No ‘Plan B’ For Oil by Chris Martenson – October 14, 2010 [citing a statement in the 2010 Joint Operating Environment report, which provides information designed to assist U.S. military officials in planning future exercise and endeavors.]
[2] http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2011/02/americans_dont_like_politics_-.html; Americans don’t like politics — and that matters by Ezra Klein – February 25, 2011
[3] http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-03/election-over-now-what-do-we-do-all-fear; The election is over – Now what do we do with all the fear? by Sharon Astyk – November 3, 2010