Peak Oil Matters

[NOTE: This is the fourth and final in a subset of posts (see the first one here) in a new PeakOilMatters series (which began here). It’s about finding a new and better vision to get to, through, and beyond Peak Oil and its widespread impact on what we produce, how we produce, and how we live. We won’t be falling off a cliff tomorrow, and the full brunt of Peak Oil’s effects won’t be experienced all at once, either. Gas and oil do not have to disappear entirely, nor do gas prices have to rise into the stratosphere before Peak Oil’s impact is felt.

Gradually, but inexorably, changes will be in the offing, however. We need to come to a better understanding of this, and start preparing ourselves now for the lengthy transition and just as lengthy ongoing impact of Peak Oil on all of us. Many issues must of necessity be considered, and I hope to make a contribution to the public dialogue we need to have. I hope you’ll find these objectives enjoyable as well as beneficial. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice just might be our best hope.]

~~~

I’ll admit that my last few posts have been decidedly more political than has been the norm. I think it’s been fairly obvious on which side of the divide my ideology and political sensibilities reside, but in view of the work I’ve been doing with the concept of Peak Oil, I firmly believe that the challenges we’ll be faced with necessitate a much more active involvement by government. Consistent with that viewpoint is my equally firm belief that the budget cuts being envisioned by the GOP are without doubt the worst approach to our long term hopes and prospects—recognizing that added spending and deficit increases are not exactly a fiscal panacea in their own right. Easy decisions would have been made months ago.

This series on A New Direction is designed to explain the evolution of thought and my contribution to the dialogue and the planning I’ve been consistently urging. It was necessary to articulate at least some of the foundational assessments I’m relying upon to explore this New Direction.

As I’ve stated in other posts, we must begin having serious adult conversations that deal with facts. Turning science and geology and related evidence-based fields of study into ideologies is absurd! Oil is a finite resource. We’ve been using a lot of it for a lot of decades. Our own national production levels peaked forty years ago, and the U.S. is by no means unique in that regard. Oil shale and tar sand productions will never replace the quality of crude oil we’ve been using for more than a hundred years. Oil production is becoming more challenging by the day: more expensive, more time-consuming, more difficult to locate and produce, and usually results in lesser quality finds and more rapidly-declining fields.

Those are some of the primary relevant facts. Not philosophy, not a guess, not a hope. Those are the realities that Planet Earth is dealing with in 2011 and for the remainder of fossil fuel’s lifespan. To pretend or wish or hope otherwise is a fool’s pursuit.

The hard truth is that we must—individually and as a nation—accept that we cannot go back to “the good old days.” Despite the inclination of some to assess that observation negatively, it is not defeatist nor does it represent a condemnation of America and/or American ingenuity and that magic word of the day: America’s exceptionalism. This is instead an acceptance of the reality that change happens and that great change is soon in the offing for all of us.

It may not only be entirely un-dramatic at first, changes resulting from declining oil production may be barely noticeable for an extended period of time aside from the rather steady uptick of prices at your local gas station. Adapting to change and leading others into a future no longer able to rely on fossil fuels is of ultimately greater benefit than resistance to change or an insistence on the shortsighted strategy of putting things off until “later.” It is simply absurd to think that encouraging greater problems in the future, requiring far more extensive and expensive adaptations with far fewer resources at the ready—all in the face of increasing demand for what does remain—is actually a strategy to be considered.

As I have alluded to quite often, a major challenge I and peers face in trying to persuade … well, everyone … that the problem of Peak Oil is already upon us, that the decades-long transitions needed cannot be postponed any longer, and that only a truly national effort regardless of ideology is our only legitimate recourse, is that right now this effort is all the more difficult because (like global warming in most instances) Peak Oil is not really impacting each and every one us in a visible, obvious or tangible manner all the time. Those few cents’ increases now and then at the local gas station are at least so far not really such a big problem. We’re like the proverbial frogs in the simmering pot of hot water: the relentless march to that point of no return is a slow and barely perceptible one. By the time the water in the Peak Oil pot boils, we’re “cooked”….

We would do well to do all that we can to find and implement a different approach. The challenge is (painfully) obvious:

“‘There’s a reality out there people don’t want to recognize,’ concludes [Robert Kaufmann, director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University]. ‘Clearly technology has improved. Oil prices are higher. We deregulated the industry. We’ve done almost everything. There are a few areas offshore that are closed off. It’s not going to make a difference. “‘The sooner people realize that and stop dreaming about energy independence or one huge undiscovered field that’s going to solve all our problems, the better off we’ll be.’” [1]

“There are a lot of things that we could do in terms of rebuilding our cities and our transportation system, and so forth. The problem is that that all takes time, and by the way, it takes liquid transportation fuel to build things and move things around. It’s going to take a tremendous effort and a tremendous amount of money and a tremendous amount of time to cut back on the suburbs and to move people closer in or to reconfigure the suburbs into business centers and then connect by, say, electric transportation of some sort. All of those things are possible. I would not have any doubts that longer term, that’s what will happen in the United States and elsewhere in the world. But those things take time, take money, and simply cannot be done overnight.” [2]

Adding emphasis to those observations is a recent, terrific piece by Fabius Maximus (here), whose pointed observations need to be understood—more accurately, accepted—as the truths with which we must contend:

“Optimists about energy give glowing forecasts of new technologies, often with wildly underestimated estimates of when these can generate substantial fractions of our energy. In the real world technologies take decades to evolve from the laboratory to commercialization. And then building new energy sources on a large scale takes decades.”

Wishful thinking that the alternative technologies now considered as our best hopes (wind, solar, oil shale, etc) will in fact be scaled up to the same levels and quality and quantity and availability as are current fossil fuels just in the nick of time aren’t even in the same ballpark as wishful thinking. We are woefully underinvested—financially, technologically, and philosophically. The GOP’s aims to reduce investments in research to even lower levels borders on the insane in light of these factors.

Fabius Maximus’s post offered a very sobering take on the evolution of idea to full-scale production and usage by referencing the ubiquitous microwave oven. This now so-common-we-don’t-even-think-about-it appliance began its commercial life in 1947 as a 750 pound behemoth about the size of a refrigerator, and took nearly four more decades before finding its way into even 25% of U.S. households. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how long it’s going to take before fully commercially viable alternative energy sources find their way into hundreds of millions of automobiles and trucks and machinery and infrastructure support? I’m also thinking we’re looking at more than a few thousand dollars worth of investment, and probably more than a handful of hours and workers … ya think?

“What we really need is a new system that will work for the long-term. But such a system is so far away from us now, it is hard to even think about how it would work, and how we would get from our current system to the new system….

“We clearly will eventually need a new plan, but we haven’t even given a thought to what it might be. It is relatively easy to come up with a proposed component of the plan, but even this may not work out in practice.” [3]

The scope of our needed individual, community, regional, state, and federal economic, industrial, and political contributions are so vast as to appear entirely inconceivable. We can’t get our leaders to agree that the sky is blue, and we’re asking—demanding, actually—that they set aside grievances and ideologies and constituencies and put together a comprehensive vision for re-structuring just about every facet of our industrial and personal lifestyles to accommodate the changes declining oil production will impose. What brave soul wants to jump into that pool head-first?

The truth is that we don’t have much of a choice now, and even less of an option later on. Compounding the efforts, costs, time, difficulties, varieties, and planning by waiting for some undefined future date is every bit as narrow-minded, shortsighted, and purely insane as curtailing the investment needed now to begin the entire process of transitioning everything away from fossil fuel dependency.

There is no comfort in recognizing that we’re not “running out” of oil for many more decades. (We’re not.)

There is no oil faucet turned on and locked to “full” for these next few decades. The flow is going to continue its inexorable slow down while the number of glasses fighting to be filled increases exponentially. There is no way to make the math work (unless of course you subscribe to the nutty legislative efforts of two congressmen mentioned in the above-referenced first post of this Clueless Is Not A Strategy mini-series, and even their ludicrous flights into delusional problem-solving might not be enough.)

“Clearly, then a considered and gradual transition is likely to be less costly, but this does not avoid the problem that we might be eating into the world’s endowment of fossil fuels at a rate that could ultimately prevent the smooth transition to a sustainable way of producing and using energy. The fact that the entire global system relies on plentiful and cheap energy for food production and almost every other form of economic activity, coupled with the fact that global GDP growth requires exponential growth in energy consumption means that we have a moral and pressing need to resolve this situation, both for our own benefit, but also that for future generations.” [4]

Tick-tock.

[A NOTE to my readers: I’m traveling from this Saturday through most of next week, and expect that I will post just once during that time. I should be back to the usual two per week posting schedule beginning on March 14th]

Sources:

[1] http://www.peterdizikes.com/articles/2008/08/myths_of_oil.php; ALASKA HAS MORE OIL THAN THE MIDDLE EAST? By Peter Dizikes [Salon.com] – Aug. 18, 2008

[2] http://globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/2459; Robert Hirsch on peak oil mitigation (transcript) – Transcribed by Miranda Huey. NOTE: this link, via The Energy Bulletin, may no longer be valid.

[3] http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-Can-we-do-Now-About-Peak-Oil.html; What Can we do Now About Peak Oil? by Gail Tverberg – December 29, 2010

[4] http://www.ifandp.com/article/009633.html; Is time running out? by Dr Samuel Fenwick – February 14, 2011

[NOTE: This is the third in a subset of posts (see the first one here) in a new PeakOilMatters series (which began here). It’s about finding a new and better vision to get to, through, and beyond Peak Oil and its widespread impact on what we produce, how we produce, and how we live. We won’t be falling off a cliff tomorrow, and the full brunt of Peak Oil’s effects won’t be experienced all at once, either. Gas and oil do not have to disappear entirely, nor do gas prices have to rise into the stratosphere before Peak Oil’s impact is felt.
Gradually, but inexorably, changes will be in the offing, however. We need to come to a better understanding of this, and start preparing ourselves now for the lengthy transition and just as lengthy ongoing impact of Peak Oil on all of us. Many issues must of necessity be considered, and I hope to make a contribution to the public dialogue we need to have. I hope you’ll find these objectives enjoyable as well as beneficial. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice just might be our best hope.]

~~~

In my last post, I cited concerns raised by clearly liberal writers castigating the “vision” for the future offered by the starboard side of the GOP.

Echoing the concerns about budget priorities, Jim DiPeso recently posted a quite reasonable piece in the FrumForum about Republican budgetary cuts. (I don’t usually agree with David Frum’s politics, but I always respect his approach. He’s a conservative whose proffered opinions—and those of most of his contributors—show no signs that his eyes are bulging out of his head as he critiques the Left. I’m confident the only tin foil in his home is found in a kitchen drawer and not on his hat rack. We could use a few hundred more on the Right just like him.) Mr. DiPeso makes the following observations:

“Business heavyweights, think tank thinkers on the right and left, and even climate contrarian Bjorn Lomborg spent the better part of 2010 calling for significant increases in energy research R&D to stir up the fires of technological innovation, drive economic growth, and reduce pollution.
“Now, along come House Republicans, lumbering into the budget china shop and battering the crockery in a ham-handed attempt to appear fiscally responsible.
“Their proposed budget resolution, setting spending levels for the remainder of fiscal year 2011, has knives out for energy science and technology research….
“[E]nergy R&D is long-range tech development that likely would not be picked up by private sector CFOs seeking more near- term returns for their risk capital. Once promising lines of inquiry are bunged up by federal budget politics, innovations that might have spawned new industries and smarter ways to use America’s energy resources would fall by the wayside.” [1]

How are we supposed to develop any semblance of national strategy, how do we plan for and move into a future with vastly different energy resources and needs, and/or how are industries and businesses expected to plan intelligently beyond the next Election Day if we’re all subjected to a seemingly complete inability of certain “leaders” to think beyond tomorrow afternoon—especially since the thinking they are presently engaged in is so pathetically narrow-minded and often quite heartless? Is there some magic potion that will provide us all with the innovations and definitive solutions we’ll need without the customary years of research and trial-and-error approaches that we’ve relied upon since the dawn on mankind?

“Republican leaders like to claim that the midterms gave them a mandate for sharp cuts in government spending. Some of us believe that the elections were less about spending than they were about persistent high unemployment, but whatever. The key point to understand is that while many voters say that they want lower spending, press the issue a bit further and it turns out that they only want to cut spending on other people. [2]

I’m guessing that that preference, while appealing in a narrow-minded, self-centered, oblivious-to-the-rest-of-the-world sense, is not likely to fly with all of the “other people.” It sure as hell won’t be doing this nation any good in the long run.

Having said that, I appreciate full well that the complex and expensive propositions bandied about as means of solving the just-as-complex problems confronting us are not as clear-cut as any of their proponents would like. We do have some profound budgetary and deficit considerations that cannot likewise be postponed interminably. There is no “this side is 100% correct and the other side is 100% incorrect” option.

But the basic economic issues we are all contending with seem fairly clear: no one is spending any money because no one (aside from a few well-placed wealthy old white guys, and I exaggerate only a bit) feels all that confident about their own financial future or that of the nation. If no one is spending, then business has no incentive to hire or keep the full staffs they might still have on board. If they aren’t producing or hiring, and instead are shuttering doors or letting workers go, then that means even fewer people are spending money, and it’s easy to see how that spiral works.

Why is this proposition so difficult to understand and act on?:

“Republicans have even submitted a draconian budget that would make deep cuts into the tiny vein that is nonsecurity discretionary spending, cuts that would prove devastating to the poor and working class.
“At the very time that many Americans — and the very country itself — are struggling to emerge from a very deep hole, the Republican proposal would simply throw the dirt in on top of us.” [3]

Do we cut government spending at a time of critical need of millions, causing them to suffer even more? Does our government spend more and add to the financial burdens of the next generations? It would delight just about all of us if the obvious, one-and-only Answer lent itself to a ten second explanation and one day implementation. As if….

Budget cuts sound nice now and appease a certain segment of the electorate and the politicians bound and determined to pander to them at all costs, but what brilliant solutions will they have at the ready 5, 8, 12 years down the road when financial situations are more dire, our infrastructure is in even greater need of extensive and expensive repair and renovation, transportation costs have risen beyond the tolerable for many owing to a decline in production and thus availability, resources needed to revamp our entire industrial foundation are are less availing, and we’re tripping over ourselves in a mad scramble to try and make good on promises left unfulfilled today? And oh by the way, there will be a lot more of us making increasing demands on a shrinking pie. That is not good math….

What kind of a nation do we want to be in the days ahead? What kind of a future do we want for ourselves, our children, and those generations beyond?

Legitimate criticisms of government spending cannot be cavalierly tossed aside in every instance. There are no magic financial formulas that can or will address the burdens such spending potentially imposes on our collective future.

But do we permit the well-to-do and the secure leadership in Congress to eliminate the very strategies and efforts we’ll need in a changing future while simultaneously casting out millions more, and announce that if budget cuts cause more harm, then “so be it”? (Thanks Mr. Speaker!)

As Paul Krugman noted in the same essay cited above:

“How can we expect voters to appreciate fiscal reality when politicians consistently misrepresent that reality…?
“The new House majority promised to deliver $100 billion in spending cuts — and its members face the prospect of Tea Party primary challenges if they fail to deliver big cuts. Yet the public opposes cuts in programs it likes — and it likes almost everything. What’s a politician to do?
“The answer, once you think about it, is obvious: sacrifice the future. Focus the cuts on programs whose benefits aren’t immediate; basically, eat America’s seed corn. There will be a huge price to pay, eventually — but for now, you can keep the base happy….
“Once you understand the imperatives Republicans face, however, it all makes sense. By slashing future-oriented programs, they can deliver the instant spending cuts Tea Partiers demand, without imposing too much immediate pain on voters. And as for the future costs — a population damaged by childhood malnutrition, an increased chance of terrorist attacks, a revenue system undermined by widespread tax evasion — well, tomorrow is another day.”

He’s right, of course. Tomorrow is another day, and if political leadership can pass along responsibility for the genuine hard work we’ll need for years to come to some other leaders years down the road, well … that strategy probably ensures a restful night’s sleep at least. Campaign funds will still flow and the loudest if most short-sighted supporters will be happy that today we’ve avoided adding to at least one problem. We can all just worry about the future we’re sacrificing until … you know … later.

Meanwhile, of course, the lingering consequences of this Great Recession will remain largely unchecked, the problems of declining oil production will surely and steadily create additional woes for many years to come to both individuals and industry, the massive income inequality that so undermines the dreams of millions will expand even more, and a lessening and cheapening of the very traits (educational prowess, technological innovations, etc., etc) that have long made this fabulous country the envy of the world will continue their unabated march downward, dragging a substantial majority of us down with it, now and for years to come. What a cheery thought!

But we are not powerless, and although the choices may be daunting now (and will surely be exponentially more daunting the longer we wait to start having grown-up conversations), opportunities remain to restore this magnificent nation to its predominant perch on the world stage—with its own attendant benefits. We own the choices, and we embrace them by first understanding the options we have and then begin to make decisions about what kind of a nation and a people we want to be.

Do we—can we—recognize that spurring demand through government intervention will aid production and hiring, which in turn leads to more spending on the part of those being hired and growing at least somewhat more secure about their financial prospects (and oh-by-the-way, pumping more revenue back into the government’s coffers to help pay down that deficit and maintain at least a modicum of compassion and care for the truly needy)? Can we appreciate that circumstances remain such that our federal government must lead, for there are no other viable options? Yes, that path carries its own risks and consequences as well. None of this is free or easy … I get that, too.

Are the budgetary “solutions” now being offered really the best way forward? Is it even possible for any of our leaders to consider our well-being beyond 2012? Can they begin to deal with the facts confronting us and the challenges to be faced in a world soon enough to be far different than the one in which we now find ourselves?

A crystal ball would be nice. On the assumption that that option is probably not forthcoming, our choices will be guided by a collective decision that the prospects for a better future are best met and addressed by decisions to create more opportunities now, or to restrict them now in the hopes that the sacrifices to be made (by all but the wealthiest, it must be noted) will in time produce a reinvigorated industrial and economic foundation.

To me, the choice (not without considerable risk and its own set of burdens) is clear:

A warming planet that will no longer have the same levels and quantities and quality of energy resources needed to at least sustain us at comparable levels of well-being, coupled with an increase in demand from millions of additional consumers, mandates that we make difficult but doable choices now to re-build our nation so that we continue to serve as a beacon for progress and prosperity. Tearing more of it down is a curious strategy, since all that’s left is a giant hope that things won’t get worse in the interim. Good luck!

In the end, as is usually the case, we may get exactly what we deserve. We might want to start thinking about that….

More still to come….

Sources:

[1] http://www.frumforum.com/gop-cuts-target-clean-energy; GOP Cuts Target Clean Energy by Jim DiPeso – February 16, 2011
[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/opinion/14krugman.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss; Eat the Future By PAUL KRUGMAN – February 14, 2011
[3] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/19/opinion/19blow.html; Empire at the End of Decadence By CHARLES M. BLOW – February 19, 2011

[NOTE: This post is the second in a subset begun on Monday (here), both of which are part of a new PeakOilMatters series (which started here). It’s about finding a new and better vision to get to, through, and beyond Peak Oil and its widespread impact on what we produce, how we produce, and how we live. We won’t be falling off a cliff tomorrow, and the full brunt of Peak Oil’s effects won’t be experienced all at once, either. Gas and oil do not have to disappear entirely, nor do gas prices have to rise into the stratosphere before Peak Oil’s impact is felt.
Gradually, but inexorably, changes will be in the offing, however. We need to come to a better understanding of this, and start preparing ourselves now for the lengthy transition and just as lengthy ongoing impact of Peak Oil on all of us. Many issues must of necessity be considered, and I hope to make a contribution to the public dialogue we need to have. I hope you’ll find these objectives enjoyable as well as beneficial. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice just might be our best hope.]

~~~

What kind of a nation do we want to be in the days ahead? What kind of a future do we want for ourselves, our children, and those generations beyond?

I’ve asked those questions—or variations thereof—on numerous occasions in the past. Until we find satisfactory answers—destinations, if you will, then whatever we keep doing will continue to just produce more of whatever it is we keep producing as pseudo-solutions to the problems we all face in varying degrees.

While this blog is first and foremost about the challenges spawned by the gradual decline of oil production in the face of increasing demand and the expectations of economic growth/business as usual, I am not unmindful of the fact that Peak Oil, like global warming, or unemployment, or the costs of our ongoing military battles, or the deficit, or the troubles associated with financial institutions, or the amount of our debt other nations hold over us, or (INSERT HERE any number of equally urgent national problems from a list of hundreds of them) is not a stand-alone problem.

Every issue we’re contending with on the national stage has some connection to dozens of other problems and issues and concerns and shortcomings. That makes fashioning acceptable solutions just a wee bit dicey, what with the tens of millions of opinions floating around and the urgency felt by just about each and every one of us that our unique set of problems must have priority over everyone else’s. Not exactly a recipe for prompt and satisfactory success. And when you add to this mix the clear strategy exhibited by some of our “leaders” that denying, ignoring, misrepresenting, or pretending is the best approach, then we really have our work cut out for us!

We’re all in this together, and whether we want to believe or admit to that or not won’t matter. Global warming will not afflict only those in a corner of the Florida Peninsula or the suburbs just outside of Phoenix. Declining oil production won’t affect only Cambridge or Berkeley liberals. Unemployment issues aren’t limited to a couple of suburbs in Detroit or Dallas. It’s not just soldiers from Seattle or Kansas City who are being hurt or killed in Iraq or Afghanistan. And not a single one of these or dozens of other national problems is dependent in the slightest on political ideology, whether it’s the product of reasoned and rational deliberation or a bug-eyed, paranoia-laden, fact-free, delusional rant. We have far, far too many of the latter and too few of the former.

“As a society, we’ve lost our way, and there is no chance of getting reoriented if we can’t find the courage to make some really tough decisions about warfare, taxes, public investment, the crying need to educate all young people, and the paramount importance of gainful employment as the cornerstone of a revitalized America.” [1]

We’re seemingly paralyzed by the vastness of change confronting us at every turn. Too many of us feel absolutely powerless over so much—so much so that clinging to what we once knew and experienced seems like the safest port in the storm. Whatever challenges we faced or problems we overcame in the past are known to us. We dealt with them and moved on, and so we derive comfort in that knowing—solace and understanding completely absent from the dizzying array of changes and challenges we face. We do our best to focus only on the small pieces we feel we have some control over here and now and in our own little corner of the universe. So much else takes place “out there” in ways we do not understand or have control over (e.g. the financial markets and energy and climate; and even the workings of government), and most of the time, all of those problems are simply too much to embrace. I get that.

We have too few leaders providing a vision which suggests that charting new paths now will lead to betterment in the future, and so we rigidly insist that going back to “business as usual” (whatever the hell that means nowadays) is the only path forward. Rarely, however, do you advance by retreating and then retreating some more.

“The thing is, we’re living as if we are guaranteed to go onward and upward into a better and brighter future. Our nation’s (relatively short) history encourages this fallacious thinking. Like spoiled children, we want freedom without responsibility. But that’s impossible. You cannot defy the law of gravity forever.
“To be truly free is to be responsible. To be responsible is to make choices today that demonstrate wise stewardship of our resources and our liberty. To be responsible is to see the world as it is, not as we would like it to be. To be responsible is to sacrifice now, as previous generations did, so as not to bind future generations to the tyranny of debt, poverty, foreign powers or their own appetites.” [2]

Are we prepared to do that? There are few indications that we are. As more and more economic woes afflict more and more of us, we retreat that much further into our own private little shells, doing all that we can to keep our and our own family’s heads above water. Anything “out there” that may or may not affect us in this moment is simply not worth considering. Surely the nebulous, slowly evolving impact of Peak Oil and/or global warming over months and years and decades to come is as foreign to most of us as sitting down to dinner with Martians. Our plates are full today … right now! The balancing act our burdens of the moment impose on us are quite enough as it is, thank you very much.

Trouble is … denial, postponement, procrastination, and simply ignoring reality will only take us so far. This strategy is all that some of our esteemed “leaders” are offering us (while simultaneously making damn sure that the billionaires among us aren’t dragged down as well). We ought to understand some of these facts more clearly than we do. Allowing some leaders to toss us occasional bones that appease tangential concerns about “values” or frightening us about deficits (a legitimately serious problem, to be sure) while they carry on activities that in the long run will cause us all only more harm is something we need to rein in soon.

“The House early Saturday approved a huge package of spending cuts, slashing more than $60 billion from domestic programs, foreign aid, and even some military projects, as the new Republican majority made good on its pledge to turn the grassroots fervor of the November elections into legislative action to shrink the size and scope of government….
“The package, which is intended to finance the federal government though the end of the fiscal year, now heads to the Senate, where it stands absolutely no chance whatsoever of passing. Indeed, House Republicans knew this before the vote, and didn’t care — this isn’t about governing; it’s about right-wing lawmakers pounding their chests in order to impress their reactionary base. House leaders could have worked with Senate leaders on a spending compromise, but Republicans chose not to bother….
“[I]t’s hard to overstate how brutal these cuts really are. Overnight, 235 House Republicans voted to slash education, job training, environmental protections, food safety, community health centers, nuclear security, energy efficiency programs, scientific research, FEMA, Planned Parenthood, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Social Security Administration, and the Centers for Disease Control, among other things.
“The projected job losses from these cuts, we learned this week, could total 1 million American workers, all of whom would be forced into unemployment, on purpose, because Republicans think it’d be good for the economy.
“As the House GOP sees it, we can’t afford these expenditures because of the deficit they helped create. We can, however, afford massive tax breaks for people who don’t need them, which cost a lot more, and which Republicans didn’t even try to pay for.” [3]

“The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities published a lengthy, wonky analysis yesterday of the Republicans’ proposed cuts - - it really is worth reading — and today offers a summary of some of the top-line provisions. Among other things, the proposal would:
“ * Cut Head Start, which provides at-risk children up to age 5 with education, health, nutrition, and other services, by an amount equivalent to the cost of serving 157,000 children.
“ * Cut Pell Grants, which help students afford college, by nearly 25 percent, affecting all 9 million students who receive them.
“ * Cut, by more than half, Workforce Investment Act funding to provide job training, job search, and other employment assistance for low-income adults and workers whose jobs have been eliminated.
“ * Cut, by more than half, two funds that help communities pay for sewage and wastewater treatment and for upgrading facilities that ensure safe drinking water.
“ * Cut funds for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by 22 percent, for the Food and Drug Administration by 10 percent, and for the Food Safety Inspection Service by 9 percent.” [4]

What kind of a nation do we want to be in the days ahead? What kind of a future do we want for ourselves, our children, and those generations beyond?

“Call me crazy, but I’m pretty sure the American people didn’t vote last November for fewer jobs, teachers and cops and more sickness, pollution and hunger.
“In fact, I’m sure the crazy one in this story is the House Republican caucus, which late Friday night proposed, in its spending plan for the rest of the current fiscal year, doing all of the above.” [5]

Is this what we want for ourselves and our children now? Is this the kind of future we consign them to?

What’s the plan if we don’t spend money to support and enhance an already-complex-beyond-our-abilities-to-grasp economic and industrial system supporting equally already-complex-beyond-our-abilities-to-grasp lifestyles? Is cutting back on infrastructure and research and investment and regulations ensuring healthy qualities of life and countless other equally vital pillars supporting and sustaining us all the road to travel?

Is it truly better to lay waste to all kinds of programs that hurt more and more people in more and more ways for longer and longer periods of time—distracting most of us so that some leaders can instead focus on policies designed to “assist” the top less than 1% or 2% of us (and it’s time to put the trickle-down theory to bed: it’s an idiotic, useless sound bite, groundless fiscal policy, and nothing more)?

What happens when we’re done cutting? What does this nation look like 3, 5, 10 years from now when growth has been cut off, when we have in far worse condition an already-horrendous infrastructure and transportation system which are nothing less than critical to our continued well-being? How much help will those few handfuls of really rich white guys be—the ones who’ve been assured that their financial “well-being” remains untouched and unaffected by the travails of the other 350 million or so of us?

THIS is the future we want to encourage? Can we honestly allow ourselves for one more day to think we’ll have more money, time, opportunity, and agreement ten years from now to invest even more in infrastructure and transportation than is needed now? Seriously? What laws of the universe are we going to suspend so that these problems do not worsen in the intervening years? We’re several trillion dollars behind as it is. Perhaps the two “visionary” congressmen mentioned in my last post might conjure up some more magic legislation to solve these issues.

Pushing these problems to a future with a smaller and still ever-declining supply of fossil fuels available to rebuild or sustain or repair even more than what’s now required of us is a good strategy?

The painful truth is that with a decline in oil production in the years to come—coupled with increased demand, less investment and research into alternatives—we’re rendering any prospects for growth and improved well-being nothing but delusional aspirations. Actions taken or not taken based on the facts we all must contend with here on Planet Earth carry consequences. What we decide and accept today will determine what kind of a future we live in, and what kind of a life we bestow on our children.

Do we start planning—intelligently, courageously, rationally, and without mindless ideology—for a different and hopefully better future, or do keep our heads buried in the sand, relying instead on a hefty dose of ignorant and narrow-minded leadership to serve as our guiding lights? Hope has its place in what we must address and plan for, but to just hope that this bad dream will stay away is not the path we ought to be considering.

If that’s what most of us decide in the end is our best bet, then good luck … we’re going to need a lot of that.

More to come….

Sources:

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/09/opinion/09herbert.html?_r=1&ref=opinion; The Impossible Dream By BOB HERBERT – November 9, 2010
[2] http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN-dreher_17edi.ART.State.Edition1.adb331.html; Peak oil is coming, and we’re unready by Rod Dreher – August 17, 2008
[3] http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2011_02/028080.php; HOUSE APPROVES BRUTAL BUDGET CUTS by Steve Benen – February 19, 2011
[4] http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2011_02/028072.php; IT’S THAT BAD….by Steve Benen – February 18, 2011
[5] http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2011020613/gop-budget-madness; The Republican Budget Is Madness By Bill Scher – February 13, 2011

[NOTE: This is the latest installment in a new PeakOilMatters series (which started here). It’s about finding a new and better vision to get to, through, and beyond Peak Oil and its widespread impact on what we produce, how we produce, and how we live. We won’t be falling off a cliff tomorrow, and the full brunt of Peak Oil’s effects won’t be experienced all at once, either. Gas and oil do not have to disappear entirely, nor do gas prices have to rise into the stratosphere before Peak Oil’s impact is felt.
Gradually, but inexorably, changes will be in the offing, however. We need to come to a better understanding of this, and start preparing ourselves now for the lengthy transition and just as lengthy ongoing impact of Peak Oil on all of us. Many issues must of necessity be considered, and I hope to make a contribution to the public dialogue we need to have. I hope you’ll find these objectives enjoyable as well as beneficial. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice just might be our best hope.]

~~~

I have such good news for everyone! It appears that not only has an elected Republican official discovered the solution to Peak Oil and other resource depletion concerns, we may not have to worry about global warming either! Isn’t that fantastic?

“GOP Lawmaker Mike Beard Claims God Will Provide Unlimited Natural Resources”
“Mike Beard, a Republican state representative from Minnesota, recently argued that coal mining should resume in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, in part because he believes God has created an earth that will provide unlimited natural resources….
“‘God is not capricious. He’s given us a creation that is dynamically stable,’ Beard told MinnPost. ‘We are not going to run out of anything.’” [1]

“Montana Legislator Introduces Bill To Declare Global Warming ‘Natural’ And ‘Beneficial’”
“A bill has been introduced in the Montana state legislature to declare global warming a ‘natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it,’ and that it is ‘beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana.’ State Rep. Joe Read (R-MT), a farmer and emergency firefighter.” [2]

Wow! That’s all I can say about these two news items. (Yet “Wow” says so much nonetheless, doesn’t it?)

I have no doubt that each of these presumably well-meaning officials are fine citizens and all, but given the challenges we face—not just with the evolving problems which both Peak Oil and global warming will impose, but certainly the more pressing employment and financial difficulties we all face—exactly how much cluelessness (a nicer ring to it than delusional) are we supposed to admit into public discourse by leaders we hope are actually intending to make beneficial contributions?

I wish I could say that these two examples of witless, mind-bogglingly dumb legislative beliefs were isolated incidents, but every day brings more examples that many of our presumed leaders (except when they are protecting the interests of the few terribly disadvantaged rich, old, white guys) have become completely disengaged from Planet Earth’s realities. And they continue merrily along (passing right past the “brazen” and “hypocritical” stop signs) because we let them. This is a problem that affects all of us.

What kind of a nation do we want to be in the days ahead? What kind of a future do we want for ourselves, our children, and those generations beyond?

Are we prepared or even capable of accepting truth and facts and reality? Are too many of us so baffled, overwhelmed, or even frightened by the changes and challenges of these times that we must resort to these kinds of responses and “solutions”? While those strategies may offer some curious short-term levels of appeasement, they are slowly but surely dragging down the rest of us. We cannot afford to get bogged down in debates about utter nonsense or legislative efforts that seek to alter reality.

All too often it seems that we are planning for our future by ignoring it, and the factors with which we must now contend. I’ve repeatedly urged that all of us need to take some time to become at least a bit more knowledgeable about the problems we’ll all soon be confronting. And if these two legislators are any indication of what some are considering discussion-worthy, we need to get more informed in a hurry.

Now, all of a sudden, there’s a God who’s apparently been a bit slow on the uptake and has suddenly realized we’ve got some resource problems, so poof! all of our needs are going to be taken care of? For the companies digging their way through the tar sands and shale deposits in the western portion of North America and spending all that time and money and energy and effort to convert tar sands in oil for us, there’s a new message:

“Pack it up and enjoy the spring! God is gonna get us some oil right quick and we are all set, but thanks for your help. Would you mind re-planting those forests on your way out? Be nice if you could drain away all those tailings ponds too … safely of course.”

Then again, maybe God has that one covered, too, although … this kinda has me wondering why He didn’t supply us with all these extra natural resources a bit sooner, before we started spilling oil in the Gulf of Mexico or poisoned and degraded a good chunk of Alberta, Canada, or went off to fight wars in the Middle East and spent zillions of dollars to protect our oil interests out there … but again, I know He’s busy.

I just hope Mr. Beard’s God doesn’t sidetracked again with all those other prayers and what-nots. He can get Himself tied up with so much else so easily and so quickly. Can we count on Rep. Beard to keep this whole natural resource replenishment high up on His “to-do” list?

Then again, if God is gonna take care of our resource issues, perhaps the good congressman might ask Him about … oh, I don’t know .. taking a look-see at child abuse? Homelessness? Child poverty? How about a cure for cancer? Perhaps some jobs? Lowering college tuition? How about some extra food for a couple hundred million poor people around the world? Might be good to end a war or two. Let’s see … what else? I’d love it if the Red Sox win the World Series again this year, and would be thrilled if the Boston Bruins win the Stanley Cup, ‘cuz I’ve been waiting almost 40 years for that. Maybe God is Sox and hockey fan? He certainly seems to have a lot of other teams covered.

By all means, worship however, Whoever, Whatever you choose. It remains one of our founding, steadfast principles. But in these oft-troubled times, injecting what amounts to not much more than fanciful nonsense into the meaningful planning and discussions that need to occur is simply inexcusable. We have enough burdens to deal with without devoting precious time and energy and thought to the daft and delusional.

And as for our Montana farmer/firefighter/representative: Global warming is now beneficial to business? Seriously? What business is he talking about? This gentleman admittedly consulted no experts, and instead “relied on his own experience and understanding of the issues.” Ummm … okay. I know a lot of people who could use some extra cash right about now, so perhaps some legislation to make bank robbing “beneficial”, Mr. Read? And while you are on a roll, putting cinnamon donuts on the food pyramid chart as a daily staple would be greatly appreciated.

I’ll admit that the approaches suggested by these two legislators are certainly novel ones to employ in trying to solve our budding (already-budded and in full bloom?) energy and environmental challenges. I guess it’s at least doing something, rather than ignoring or pretending we don’t have issues. I imagine that denying facts takes a fair amount of work, so if we can instead just count on God to fix all of this (any day now, would be good, by the way) or instead just simply decide that all the melting and flooding and extreme weather and gradually rising temperatures are actually good for us, then I guess that’s a “solution.” Who knew you could use legislation to defy the physical laws of the universe?

Or … how about, instead, we bring a group of rational, intelligent, well-meaning, visionary adults in the room who are at last willing to admit that there are any number of unpleasant, disturbing, unwelcome facts (remember the days when they mattered?) that must be addressed; that we’ve got some problems that need attending to before they become catastrophes; who will stop insisting that if it’s not a perfect solution that meets with the approval of all 645 of their various constituencies with all of their varied interest and demands then it simply cannot be considered, and then finally figure out that we might need to be just a bit more intelligent and coherent about what we do—collectively—going forward.

It would be a welcome change if ideologies were left out in the hall, and integrity was restored to problem-solving (which of course means that cherry-picking facts, misrepresentations, misleading and/or disingenuous distractions, and related strategies are likewise left outside.) Sure wish it was that simple….

I’ll continue this theme in my next post.

Sources:

[1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/16/mike-beard-natural-resources-god_n_824312.html; GOP Lawmaker Mike Beard Claims God Will Provide Unlimited Natural Resources by Nick Wing. February 16, 2011

[2] http://thinkprogress.org/2011/02/17/montana-global-warming-bill/; Montana Legislator Introduces Bill To Declare Global Warming ‘Natural’ And ‘Beneficial’ by Brad Johnson. February 17, 2011

[NOTE: This is the latest installment in a new PeakOilMatters series (which started here). It’s about finding a new and better vision to get to, through, and beyond Peak Oil and its widespread impact on what we produce, how we produce, and how we live. We won’t be falling off a cliff tomorrow, and the full brunt of Peak Oil’s effects won’t be experienced all at once, either. Gas and oil do not have to disappear entirely, nor do gas prices have to rise into the stratosphere before Peak Oil’s impact is felt.

Gradually, but inexorably, changes will be in the offing, however. We need to come to a better understanding of this, and start preparing ourselves now for the lengthy transition and just as lengthy ongoing impact of Peak Oil on all of us. Many issues must of necessity be considered, and I hope to make a contribution to the public dialogue we need to have. I hope you’ll find these objectives enjoyable as well as beneficial. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice just might be our best hope.]

~~~

Are we even a bit content with what is happening to us? Most polls clearly suggest we are not. Extracting ourselves from the Great Recession has proven to be an undertaking of beyond-monumental proportions. No one should be thinking that we’re home-free just yet, although I’d love to be the messenger for that bit of news!

It’s safe to assume that no one is looking for more problems to add into the mix. Certainly challenges that show no signs of affecting any of us in our immediate future are ones we can safely ignore for now. At least that’s the theory and/or thought and/or hope. If only….

“Preparing our communities for peak oil is no easy task. From local zoning codes to national highway bills, just about every policy and infrastructure decision made since World War II has prioritized driving over walking, bicycling and taking public transportation. As a result, today most Americans and Canadians are powerless to meet even their most basic daily needs – whether going to work or buying food– without using a petroleum-powered car or truck.” [1]

If only the problems associated with Peak Oil were “limited” to transportation issues (although surely that will be among the biggest hurdles to overcome, given transportation’s level of dependency on fossil fuels). As the parallel series of posts I’m running will be demonstrating (see this recent post and this earlier one, for example), there are a lot of additional considerations and difficulties to surmount when we begin to more directly experience the effects of an ever-declining supply of fossil fuels.

“… we need to do more than come up with new technology to solve the problems we now face. We also need to rethink and remake our entire infrastructure, our economics, and even our culture. This isn’t just a project for a crack team of scientists. This one is going to need the help of every one of us.”[2]

Not exactly the kind of message any of us are eager to hear right now, or next month, or probably even next year.

The point, however, is that adapting to a world of constantly-declining oil supply and production calls for precisely that kind of massive, mind-bogglingly complex endeavor. No matter how much magic technology one is pinning their hopes on to save the day, changing everything that now depends in some way, shape, or from on a ready and inexpensive supply of petroleum and petroleum-based products is going to take a good long while. Measuring those efforts and tasks must be done in the language of decades.

How much longer should we be waiting before we begin?

“If we do work on a new, sustainable system, how can we get our minds to even think in terms of what life might be like, essentially without fossil fuels?” [3]

It’s a safe bet that the first ten responses anyone can conjure up to that question involve … ignoring it. Wrapping our minds around the concept of “life as know it” becoming “life about which we have no clue” is way, way too much for just about anyone to contemplate now or anytime in the foreseeable future. I’m with all of you on that one.

Confident that I speak for just about everyone reading this, I want nothing more than for life to return to the way it used to be not so long ago, with the same kinds of chances and opportunities as we had back then, and I’m not really looking for anything to rock that boat, thank you very much. That is far and away the easier and more preferable approach! If only…

The vast industrial, political, economic, and cultural changes we’ve witnessed in just the past handful of years has been breathtaking in scope! The intricate facets of globalization and related financial and energy resource complexities are too much for most of us to handle or even think about. The fact that a good portion of those changes have been met with great resistance or (in the case of the Great Recession), have caused considerable anguish and suffering, makes it easy to long for the heady days when life was good. Back then at least, all that was undermining the good life was hidden from view. Not knowing was a good thing!

Having that option again is certainly an appealing one right about now! If only….

We’re too far down the path of great change to do anything about it, unless wishful thinking is one’s idea of constructive and productive effort. Resistance to change changes nothing. It does serve to make life more challenging when it comes time to “pay the piper”, but that’s an outcome we need to stop desiring. We’ve kicked the cans about as far down the road as is possible. It’s time to do battle with the facts, and it is surely requires an all-hands-on-deck approach, as I’ve laying out for all us as carefully as I can.

What kind of a nation do we want to be? Not just in 2011 or 2013, but how will our next generation fare as a result of the choices we make and policies and plans we implement now? Peak oil (and I’m intentionally ignoring climate change issues—at least for purposes of writing this post) is not a problem that we’re going to “resolve” and then move on. Oil production and supply are about to (if they’re not already doing so) tip and start a long slide down a slope that has very few remaining inclines. It will not get better.

I would like nothing more than the promises of unconventional (on the simple little condition that they not make the environment worse, cost much, nor deplete other essential resources) and alternative energy resources to reach full fruition last week. But facts remaining damned annoying when we deal with energy, and the simplest fact is that there is nothing on the horizon that will work as an adequate substitute for the efficiencies and low cost and ease of accessibility that oil has provided us since the Civil War era. That ship has now sailed, and all of the Plan B’s combined can’t cut it yet.

We’re many, many years and considerable, painstaking research efforts away from easing our way out of fossil fuel dependence. And when supply is on the wrong side of plentiful, and demand will continue to charge far ahead of what’s going to be available, we’ve got some issues. Change is coming. We don’t have to like it, because the truth is that at least in the immediate aftermaths of the more serious consequences that will soon enough make their appearance, not much will be spark joy in our hearts about the state of our energy supplies and resources.

What we do have a choice over is how soon we commit ourselves to not just accepting the many changes, but proactively addressing them head-on by an intelligent mix of truth, courage, insight, wisdom, planning, and implementation—all to unfold over a good many years. Piece o’ cake! Well, maybe not … but far from an insurmountable task. (I’ll have more to say about “change” in an upcoming post.)

We can also decide here and now that these changes will forever be awful and burdensome and unfair and all the rest. No disputing that. But, the opportunity also exists for us to find our better angels, put the still-awe-inspiring capabilities and talents and resources and visions of this proud nation and lead the way. Not easy; not soon; not inexpensive. But most assuredly doable.

Good to have choices….

Sources:

[1] http://postcarboncities.net/node/3593; Showing leadership on peak oil - Posted 8 October 2008
[2] Profit from the Peak: The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century; Brian Hicks and Chris Nelder; Wiley Publisher, 2008 – p. 188
[3] http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-Can-we-do-Now-About-Peak-Oil.html; What Can we do Now About Peak Oil? by Gail Tverberg

[NOTE: This is a the latest installment in a new PeakOilMatters series (which started here). It’s about finding a new and better vision to get to, through, and beyond Peak Oil and its widespread impact on what we produce, how we produce, and how we live. We won’t be falling off a cliff tomorrow, and the full brunt of Peak Oil’s effects won’t be experienced all at once, either. Gas and oil do not have to disappear entirely, nor do gas prices have to rise into the stratosphere before Peak Oil’s impact is felt.

Gradually, but inexorably, changes will be in the offing, however. We need to come to a better understanding of this, and start preparing ourselves now for the lengthy transition and just as lengthy ongoing impact of Peak Oil on all of us. Many issues must of necessity be considered, and I hope to make a contribution to the public dialogue we need to have. I hope you’ll find these objectives enjoyable as well as beneficial. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice just might be our best hope.]

~~~

I’ve stressed the importance in recent posts about our need to better understand the facts about oil production, given that the unending decline is going to have a dramatic impact on us in the years to come as the full measure of Peak Oil gradually—or not so gradually—unfolds. (And let’s not even begin to discuss our need to possess a fuller understanding of our economic policies and their impact on our future; the truth about global warming—and not the political ideology which denies it, together with a host of other national and international issues that continue to impact us now and likely for many years to come. I’ll leave those topics to other writers.)

Is it better to know and understand—difficult and perhaps even frightening though this may be—or do we rely instead on others whom we hope are acting in our best interests to handle these challenges for us, freeing us from such burdensome responsibilities? Most of us do, after all, have plates quite full with our own worries and responsibilities—all the greater over these past few years in the wake of our Great Recession. Few will volunteer to pack those plates with more concerns … especially vaguely-defined and certainly-not-happening-today-or-tomorrow problems such as Peak Oil and global warming. “Trying to figure out how to pay for new shoes for Junior this weekend; not much time for me to worry about whether or not I can afford (or even find) a fill-up for my SUV in 2013. So sorry!”

Understood, of course. Every one of us can pop off a half-dozen similar responses in a matter of seconds when someone like me broaches the subject of Peak Oil’s challenges and consequences. I have my own ready-made set of replies to deny and/or ignore that looming problem.

But a short term strategy like that is all but guaranteed to cause us many problems down the road. Most of us probably understand that intuitively, but there’s just too much else on our plates today, next week, and next month to really wrap our minds around a problem that really is “out there in the world someplace,” and not bothering us too much today. I get that, yet I honestly don’t know how much greater our capacity can, or ought to, be for postponing difficult conversations and undertakings until … “later.” Later is too late; it usually is when employing the tactics of denial and delay.

I’d like to think that this is a perfectly logical and reasoned and measured-in-tone proposition, but I also know that it’s largely devoid of influence at the moment. That’s what must change, and there will be no magic formulas (or magic words) for how to make that work amid the sea of concerns and problems almost all of us are now contending with under our own roofs. One step at a time.

I’ve also tried to make clear that preparing for and then dealing with Peak Oil is at the outset a “two-track” approach: not only do we bear responsibility for stepping up our knowledge and involvement; we also need some serious quantities of truth-telling from our political, industry, and media leaders. We can’t hope to fashion and then implement any meaningful strategies if we don’t have an honest assessment of what challenges we need to address! Seems fairly elementary….

“Citizen or politician, however, it is undeniably difficult to show political leadership on an issue as challenging and unpopular as peak oil. Much like global warming, it’s an incredibly huge and complex issue that requires a certain amount of scientific and technical knowledge to fully understand — and it also happens to threaten our very way of life.” [1]

As I and others have already discussed, the various impacts of Peak Oil are quite unlikely to be pleasant for any of us at the outset. While the effects will emerge slowly (we hope) but steadily over a considerable period of time (the longer and slower the better), the sheer relentlessness of those effects will in and of themselves create a fair amount of disruption and perhaps even some measure of panic.

Planning ahead is designed in no small part to address the latter concern. Knowledge and careful planning based on that knowing will go a long way to minimizing fears that might otherwise bloom in full. More often than not, it’s what we don’t know that proves more harmful. Telling the truth is a pretty good antidote.

“The first thing that occurs to me regarding a post-Peak life is facing the near-certainty that you will have to live such a life. Our economy and society have been built on certain assumptions – the assumptions of ever-increasing technological advancement, convenience, comfort, and prosperity….
“The first preparation you can make is to bravely face the future, take inventory of all of its implications, and then begin to harden yourself to be able to cope with it.” [2]

“[M]any of us have become so attached to our lifestyles that we would risk oblivion rather than let go of the things that we tell ourselves are so important. This leads to all manner of convoluted thinking.” [3]

That is why we need to be more informed, involved, and courageous enough to understand and accept that changes are coming. It will be no small feat to rid ourselves of the beliefs about unlimited and unrestrained abundance or the sense of entitlement we arm ourselves with in the face of disruptions or restrictions. It is also precisely why the above-referenced group of leaders must play their part and find the levels of integrity needed to be honest with us.

“[Energy investment adviser Jim] Johnson said that energy-industry insiders quietly acknowledge ‘peak oil’ and the dire economic and social consequences that are implied by doing nothing about it.
“‘Energy prices will go through the roof,’ Johnson said, ‘and people don’t see it coming. Worst, we deny that the cause is us and our profligate style of consumption.
“‘But first, he said, people ‘must wake up and understand what’s going on here.’” [4]

We need more Jim Johnsons to be telling us the truth, and far fewer deniers whose motives for kicking up a lot of dust seem to have no connection to the “common good.”

Just a hunch, but the ire that might be directed at them for finally speaking truths will dissipate far more quickly and will have arisen with much less intensity and anguish than if they hold off doing so until it’s damn near too late. Pay a little now or a lot later. Hiding from the facts can continue only for so long. How much do we want to risk?

“Our problem now is that we have built a complex economy that depends on oil and other fuels. We can see that we will have less oil in the future. The question is, ‘What we should do, in planning for a change in the world…?’
“We are trying to model the future based what we have now, but our current model is very much tied to our current fossil fuel use. It is hard to imagine that our system will work for the long term.” [5]

It won’t. That is the task at hand. Very few decisions we will make as individuals and as a nation will have greater and more long-lasting impact and influence than how we decide to deal with the looming challenge of peak oil. We’ve already wasted too much as it is. Let’s not waste more.

That is what we must accept, that is what must be explained to us, and a solution for that task is what must guide us all as we slowly but surely slide into a world where the fossil fuel resources that have provided us a breathtaking array of technological and industrial achievements will no longer keep pace with the demands placed upon them. The math of declining supply and increasing demand simply does not work so that we can continue on with “business as usual” … or even more.

No easy answers; no inexpensive solutions; nothing we can slip quietly into place in the next week or two that’s going to solve … anything about Peak Oil. We do have our work cut out for us. No more doubts.

Whatever it is we might want or feel entitled to will have to give way to the courage of knowing and understanding what the new scenarios and circumstances will be, and then lead from that knowing. We have the chance to resume our position of leadership and excellence—for those worried that we’re not feeling or demonstrating that we’re “exceptional” enough—but we will do so from a different platform and with different resources and purposes to guide us.

Crisis or opportunity? That choice has not yet been taken from us.

More to come….

Sources:

[1] http://postcarboncities.net/node/3593; Showing leadership on peak oil – Posted 8 October 2008
[2] http://thewellrundry.blogspot.com/2008/08/importance-of-timing-of-peak-oil.html; The Importance of the Timing of Peak Oil – August 15, 2008
[3] http://www.peterrussell.com/Speaker/Talks/WBA.php; Who’s Kidding Whom? Is Sustainable Development Compatible with Western Civilization? by Peter Russell
[4] http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2008/08/18/2981/waking_up_to_the_threat_of_peak_oil; Waking up to the threat of ‘peak oil’ By Ron Way | Aug. 18, 2008
[5] http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-Can-we-do-Now-About-Peak-Oil.html; What Can we do Now About Peak Oil? by Gail Tverberg

In my last post, I again raised the issue that how we address and ultimately overcome the problems and challenges declining oil production/Peak Oil imposes on all of us will largely depend on how we as individuals collaborate with our political, industrial, and media leaders. No longer can we simply pass the responsibility on to designated others, or worse, hope that these others will in fact act with our best interests at heart.

In order for this approach to work, we must be informed about what is at stake, and we have to be courageous enough to demand only the truth about what we will be contending with. Leaders must exhibit that same courage in being honest with us, regardless of the impact on poll numbers or stock valuations or ratings. Sad to say that this will be no easy accomplishment.

But everything first begins with each of us. Peak Oil is not only going to affect people in North Dakota, or the auto industry, or NBC. The impact of declining oil production, be it gradual or slow, will affect anyone and everything that depends on petroleum and/or transportation. That doesn’t leave too much outside the box.

The decisions each of us make about our respect for the problems and for others will determine how much we in turn will demand and expect from those in positions of power, influence, and leadership. We’ve demonstrated our capacity to join with others to achieve great ends in the past, and I’ll remain optimistic that we can do so again. The stakes are every bit as high now as they’ve been at other turning points in our history. I think it’s important that we not trivialize this, just as I believe it is critical we don’t proclaim that the world is about to end, either. There’s a large and reasonable middle for us to move to.

Nothing which I or others who devote much of our time to the topic of Peak Oil say or suggest should be interpreted as easy or simple to do and achieve. We’ve built an awesome system of industrial and technological prowess and prosperity on the back of fossil fuel production and consumption. What we have and own and use and depend on by and large resulted from our abilities to extract, refine, and then utilize fossil fuels. One hundred and fifty plus years of achievements have as their source mankind’s skill in exploiting and adapting fossil fuels to the needs and demands of society. It has indeed been a hell of a ride.

It’s not about to come to a crashing end anytime soon, but the pace is going to slow; we’ll see reductions here and there at first, and soon enough more and more reductions and restrictions in more here’s and there’s. Having devoted far too few of our resources and capabilities to innovation, exploration, and development of alternatives leaves us woefully unprepared for the changes that will come. The mere thought of converting … everything to some alternative forms of energy not even close to adequate supply or production at this point leaves many of us with great anxiety and far too little hope.

This must change, and it begins with what we choose to know and understand and address. The facts are what they are: there are no more easily-accessible, gigantic, inexpensively-produced and refined fossil fuel sources just waiting for some intrepid oil company to show up and open the spigots. Prices are rising, and those in the know do not see much change in that trend absent yet another economic calamity. I’m not sure we should be hoping for that.

It’s all fine and well to be optimistic that deep-sea oil exploration or discoveries in other remote areas of the world will yield a rich harvest of all the fossil fuels we’ll need for the next century or two, but optimism needs to find a place in the truth about our energy resources.

Who among us wants to think that we can’t just continue on to ever-greater levels of prosperity without too much fuss or bother once this pesky financial crisis resolves itself?

But until we can individually and collectively admit that in a world of finite resources and ever-expanding population increase and ever-expanding demand for more and more from more and more, the math just cannot work for much longer. Our delusions that “business as usual” is just around the corner will only add to our longer-term burdens. Is that our best strategy?

It seems all too often that we’re working too hard to preserve what is or once was while life keeps happening and passing us by, and that appears to govern most of our dealings now. It’s a strategy that will only provide a certain level of comfort and only for so long. We won’t know how much courage we possess, and how much ingenuity and innovation we can utilize, until we do. And the only way any of this will happen is for leaders across the board to start telling us the truth, rather than having small voices such as mine making pronouncements.

Then, each and all of us must understand and accept those truths.

Until we know, we cannot effectively do.

Let’s face it, there is very little happening around the world or in this nation that offers immediate comfort and hope that all will be well, and soon. Ideologies are nice but will only take us so far if the resistance remains so pronounced—narrow-minded though it may be. It’s hard not to feel a genuine fear and dismay about what the future holds. We just can’t seem to get a good grip on the one great magical solution, and so instead we understandably grasp anything that seems even a bit reasonable or assuring.

We need our leaders to be better. We need them to start telling us the truth.

“Americans need a wake-up call, but unfortunately politics has colored how we talk about oil in this country, and we have some incredibly irresponsible people who want to see their party in power who are not being honest with the American people about this stuff. If you know there are only 650 billion barrels of oil left in the entire world and you know that we know where it is and the issue isn’t finding it but figuring out how to get at it, wouldn’t you start cutting your use? Finding alternative energy sources? Instead of telling people we need to ‘drill here drill now, dagnabbit!’ — which we are already doing — wouldn’t you be telling people, ‘we’re running out let’s find out how we can switch to something else and conserve what we’ve got left’”?

All that’s happening “out there” in the world of politics and energy and finance and industry seems so dramatically and broadly different than what most of us have experienced. It’s easy for that lack of knowing to promote a healthy sense of disquiet if not outright fear. With so many different voices pulling and pushing in so many different directions, it’s almost impossible for us to have any perspective on what’s going on. Without that understanding, how can we hope to find our way clear of and past all of these challenges?

I’m just as guilty as the next person: we’re spoiled by the progress and prosperity we once claimed so effortlessly. That all now seems threatened, and we feel so powerless and so uncertain amid the current complexities of life and government and industry and energy and climate. All we know is the safety and relative security of what once was. Who can blame anyone for wanting to just quickly and quietly return to the “way it used to be”?

Pre-Great Recession, things were “simpler.” We’ve already experienced great prosperity and progress and opportunity. Of course we all want more of that, and we want it to resume … yesterday! Of course we’d like for that great train of growth to pull into the station right about now, moving us along toward our individual realizations of the American Dream. And our nation being—not so long ago—the clearly dominant world power, we could each rely on that for our own sense of security and well-being. Stuff happening “out there” wasn’t going to affect us too much or for too long because we’re … America! Not too much to fault for thinking that way, of course, but change in an ever-changing world is the reality, and change doesn’t always happen exactly as we’d like.

All of that promise and progress appears threatened now, and the most common approach is for most to just hunker down, hope “others” will fix all of this for us soon, while we do our best to get by from day to day. When you aren’t entirely certain that your job will be there next Monday, or that your meager retirement savings won’t get you well into your senior years, or when a child is ill and you just aren’t sure that you can weather the financial trauma, world energy supplies and a warmer planet thirty years down the road don’t seem all that serious.

I get that.

Asking each of us to now do more, to expand our vision and efforts while we contend with the challenges and burdens of just getting through each day successfully seems at the very least quite unfair. I get that, too.

But facts remain stubborn and annoying, and while it’s entirely unrealistic to expect the vast majority of us to carve out large pieces of our day to devote to the bigger issues and problems “out there”, it is only in that knowing, and then participating at some level, that we can begin to take the steps we need to provide us with the best assurances that our hopes remain viable and vital.

What’s essential to our long term prospects for success, growth, and prosperity is how much choose to know about what confronts us, the measure of integrity our leaders exhibit (history is not encouraging), and how and how much each and every one us decides to commit to a better vision for our future. The days of leaving it entirely in the hands of others is past.

“We live on a finite planet, and it seems likely that we are nearing the limits of the Earth’s ability to support ongoing growth. Even if this limit is still decades or centuries away, there is serious moral hazard in the continuation of growth on a finite planet as it serves merely to push that problem on to our children or grandchildren. Growth cannot continue infinitely on a finite planet.” [2]

If we’re not starting to think long term about what we’ll be doing and how we’ll be doing it, the rest of our lives, our children’s lives, and our grandchildren’s as well will be a succession of mini-crises that are never solved, with an election turnover every two years that guarantees all the wrong kinds of change (stagnation is more likely). It’s hard to see how that is going to keep working well for us. Is that the best we can now hope for? Are we willing to endure that anxiety and pain rather than face the uncertainty of structuring great change?

This series is about finding a new and better vision. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice will be our best hope.

To be continued….

Sources:

[1] http://sobeale.blogspot.com/2011/01/terrible-disconnect.html; The Terrible Disconnect – Jan 17, 2011
[2] http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3721; The Problem of Growth by Jeff Vail – March 21, 2008

“It starts with a vision. As they say, begin with the end in mind. A vision can be quantitative or qualitative, but since you need to be able to know when you get there, some degree of measurability is a must. Without a shared vision of what success looks like, it’s tough to get anywhere.” [1]

So where to begin? I’ve given more than a passing amount of thought to all of this, and have (I believe) a fairly extensive number of considerations to offer. This series will unfold slowly as a result, but I hope readers will find the discussions thought-provoking at the very least.

What does our future hold in store, and what will and can we do to give ourselves the best chance of continuing at least the semblance of individual and collective success? Can we still find a measure of respectable prosperity and contentment?

Do we want to be just incrementally better in the days to come, or do we aspire to something much grander and greater, consistent with our hopes and visions for what a prosperous America could and should be? No guarantees, of course, but doing nothing or just hoping will not make any of that happen.

If we truly wish to return to a place where we all feel and believe that this nation indeed remains “exceptional”, then we need to harness a vision for the future that is not just incrementally better than this one. The uncomfortable truth is that in the years to come, using the same resources and methods and strategies that got us here will be of limited value at best. A bigger and more expansive vision is required, and all of us will have an essential role to play. With billions more expected in the next few decades—all utilizing many more of the finite resources this planet harbors—we have no choice but to more expansive, creative, and inclusive.

“We can’t turn a finite resource into an infinite one, however much wishful thinking we apply to it. And however much business and other interested parties try to deny the reality of peak oil in order to achieve their own interests—short term personal profits, the long arc of American success be damned—there is no more time to waste.” [2]

That means challenging the comforting ideologies most of us rely upon. So too do we need to rid ourselves of the fears and worries and objectives that serve no long term purpose. (Sorry, but gays in the military, to cite one prominent issue of the day, will have to slide pretty far down our list of priorities. There are many other hot-button issues that must likewise be cast aside. And that’s just the beginning.)

“Most people find the process of challenging their assumptions very difficult. It is not just that the assumptions are hard to see; we usually do not want to see them. We become emotionally attached to our beliefs, and to question them can feel very threatening. Nevertheless, uncomfortable as the process may be, it nearly always pays dividends. It usually leads to a deeper understanding of the nature of the problem, and often to better solutions.” [3]

I begin with this optimistic premise: We have the opportunity to take the best of all that we have and have to offer—from each of us—and move forward with greater definitions and determinations of success and prosperity and fulfillment. If we want to cling to the mantle of our exceptionalism and greatness as a nation, then more will be demanded and expected not just from our mostly dysfunctional political leaders and limited-vision corporations. We all need to step up to the plate, set aside the pettiness and ignorance and narrow-mindedness too often on vivid public display, and find our own “better angels.” Extremely idealistic, to be sure. I’m open to a better starting point.

We have a lot going on as it is: from climate change, to our economic and employment struggles, to concerns about our continuing lofty place on the international stage and our corresponding ability to successfully compete with other nations, to the ragged and sorry state of our educational system and national infrastructure, to the financial challenges of state and local governments, and on to our own individual stresses and strains as these and other external events make their mark in our own lives. That is a pretty full plate!

And now we have to figure out what to put into place to foster continuing prosperity and success as we confront the declining production of the primary source of energy that has fueled us to this point—and how we do so. Given that we have so little on the suggestion board to begin with, we have our work cut out for us.

The truth, however unpleasant some may view it, is that great change is taking place regardless of our wishes or preferences. That train has left the station.

We must now first commit at least some time and effort to gaining more understanding and knowledge. Facts and truth. That’s what we need, and those who are responsible for sharing information must find the ways to do so with a level of integrity sorely lacking so far. Climate change evidence, for one, is overwhelming at this point, and the silly ideologies that routinely turn fact into mere opinion can no longer have a prominent place in public discussion. Shortsighted attempts to sway the citizenry so as to promote narrow interests can only harm all of us even more. Can we be better than that?

If we are to alleviate the fears about continuing disruptions to our once-comfortable ways of life and the great unknown of ambiguity so as to give everyone a greater sense of control and understanding, we must insist upon the courage of leaders in the media and government and industry to start telling us unvarnished truths.

“[E]xposing a true predicament while also offering a viable and optimistic strategy to address that predicament creates myriad opportunities for hope to morph into vision and vision into strategy.
“The moment couldn’t be more ripe” [4]

No question that this is highly idealistic and in the moment, seemingly impossible to achieve and attain, but it is where we must eventually be. We must first understand and become aware of what we face. It is only then that we leave no doubt as to the importance of our collectively contributing to the crafting of a new vision for what we will be and achieve.

What kind of a nation do we choose to be? As an old adage suggests: “If you don’t know where you are going, then any road will get you there.” Not an option.

We have to do so much more now if we choose to remain a dominant presence on the world stage while continuing to provide the best opportunities for our own citizens. Now we will have to do so under different rules and with different resources going forward. The planning must begin soon.

A choice: we either take the lead and devote our massive abilities to both revitalizing our nation and determining what we’ll achieve and be in this century, or we simply allow the many varied forces of nature and progress in and among other nations to lead us where they will (at most likely at much lower levels of prosperity—given that we are dealing with finite resources which are getting used up in even greater quantities than ever before.)

It is up to us, and we need the courage to recognize that the world is a different place now. Adapt and lead, or be dragged along? Crisis or opportunity?

So I’ll ask again: Where do we begin?

To be continued….

Sources:

[1] http://www.urbanophile.com/2010/12/17/replay-what-is-a-strategy/: Replay: What Is A Strategy? - Aaron M. Renn (The Urbanophile); 12/17/10
[2] http://transitionvoice.com/2010/12/america-in-decline/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TransitionVoice+%28Transition+Voice%29; America In Decline? – Lindsay Curren; 12/15/10
[3] http://www.peterrussell.com/Speaker/Talks/WBA.php; Who’s Kidding Whom? Is Sustainable Development Compatible with Western Civilization? by Peter Russell
[4] America In Decline? – Lindsay Curren

What kind of a nation do we want to be?

This will be, if not the most important question we’ll collectively ask ourselves in the months and years to come, in the top 2 or 3.

The answers we produce—“we” being our political leaders, our business leaders, the media, and perhaps most importantly: each and every one of us—will obviously determine the strategies we adopt and the successes and prosperity which (we hope) will remain available to us. In this new series, I’d like to offer my two cents’ worth and provide some talking points to help us sort things out.

If we are not standing at the most critical crossroad of our industrial and economic history, the signs on the side of the road are letting us know it is coming up soon.

We face some challenges. The headlines tell us all we need to know about employment and economic woes, the increasingly disheartening hypocrisy and gamesmanship that continue to define politics here in America, and a growing unease about the direction of our country. I begin writing this post only 24 hours after the tragic, senseless, idiotic massacre in Arizona that nearly claimed the life of a by-all-accounts well-respected Congresswoman, and did in fact kill several other just-as-innocent bystanders. (A nine-year-old girl? Really? How is that justified under even the most insane of insane defenses?)

Climate change evidence continues its daily march into reality—the inability of deniers to grasp simple truths notwithstanding. And atop and amid all of these lovely and encouraging challenges, we have some fossil fuel resource problems knocking on our door.

Let’s hope that the convergence of these issues sparks a different level and quality of public discourse. Most would be hard-pressed to think that that would not be a good thing….

As I and others have taken great pains to explain, if we have not yet reached the point where we have extracted and sent to market the highest level of oil production we’ll ever attain (I think we have, as does the International Energy Agency, among others much more in the know than me), we’re pretty damn close. And as I and those same others have taken other great pains to explain, we’re not on the verge of imminent collapse, either. The process of ever-declining oil production, and thus ever-declining amounts of oil available to us, will unfold over a fairly lengthy period of time. I have no plans for a Chicken-Little-Sky-Is-Falling party anytime soon. Despite the efforts of peak oil deniers to attribute this false claim to us, we are not running out of oil—at least not for many decades.

That does not mean we are problem-free for years or decades to come, however. We need to shine some light on that distinction while starting the very lengthy and complex process of transitioning our everything away from never-ending reliance on fossil fuels … oil, specifically.

There are still many billions of barrels of conventional oil still buried underground, and perhaps many more billions—hundreds, perhaps—of unconventional supplies buried as well. If that’s where the discussion could end, then Peak Oil would indeed be the rantings of another group of paranoid conspirators rightfully ignored as should be those who continue to think President Obama was born on Mars or wherever.

But it’s a wee bit more complicated than that.

The fact that we may have enormous quantities of unconventional reserves/resources underground isn’t the be-all and end-all of the are-we-or-aren’t-we-running-out-of-oil discussion. What must be understood more clearly is that having those presumed resources in the ground is one thing and all fine and well as a starting point. But getting unconventional resources (by fact and definition available only with considerable extra effort, time, and cost) out of the ground and into the marketplace at reasonable costs and in reasonable time frames while conventional supplies continue to decline is a very, very different thing. They are called “unconventional” for a number of reasons, after all!

If it costs more (and let’s not even discuss the environmental degradation and water resource consumption issues that are part and parcel of unconventional oil extraction and production), takes more time to get to the market, is of lesser quality, and clearly much more difficult to extract, the math doesn’t work. Unconventional resources aren’t the answer … not even close. (Tighter supplies of the conventional fossil fuels our engines are designed to burn means higher costs at your local gas station, for one thing. Anyone experiencing anything like that nowadays?)

Demand worldwide is increasing, regardless of where the charts suggest U.S. demand might be right now. As much as we like to admire our exceptionalism and burnish our lofty perch as the One and Only, we’re not alone on the planet, and what we want isn’t the beginning and the end of discussions about resource consumption and supply.

There are many billions of people on this planet who do not now enjoy and have never enjoyed the levels of growth and prosperity this nation has been blessed with, and there are very few among those billions who would not like their own chance at their own version of the American Dream—tarnished and bruised though it may be. We—they—are confronted with a pretty simple yet very powerful obstacle, however.

Finite resources are … finite. Not infinite. Not not finite. Whatever spin one may wish to employ to make the problem go away, the math is what it is. It takes some impressive contortions to suggest that the increasing demand clashing with declining supplies shouldn’t concern any of us. In one sense, those deniers are correct on the “any of us” scale … it concerns all of us.

Production is declining, however slowly that may be; unconventional resources are not making up the difference; alternative energy supplies are many, many years away from supplanting the fossil fuels we’ve depended on for the last 150 years or so, more people are asking for more of this declining resource, we don’t have an infrastructure in place to accommodate the requirements of non-fossil fuel resources, and there is no magic out there which will enable the increasing demand to be satisfied in full, at acceptable prices, quality, or timeliness. That is not going to change, and not going to get better. A month bump-up in production here and there sounds wonderful, but long term, it means next to nothing.

Facts are indeed annoying as hell. But the sooner more of us take the time to understand and appreciate what we must deal with, the sooner we can devise and then employ the strategies we’ll need, and the sooner we unleash the still-awesome capabilities of this nation and its remarkable citizenry to create a future that may just turn out okay despite our seemingly-best efforts to keep screwing it up.

I am by temperament a very optimistic person, and it is that attitude that will guide my efforts in this humble little blog to get us thinking and being and doing differently. Not easy? Check. Highly idealistic at the moment? Double check. Not enough to dissuade me? Triple check.

We need to take a look at where we are and what we are doing in a world now filled with relentless and great change, complexity on levels never before imagined, and widespread hopes for progress intersecting on the back side of a nearly-overwhelming global financial crisis. At the same time, these circumstances demand that we come to some better understandings and decisions about what we are doing to both adapt to energy and environmental concerns as well as participate in that adaptation if we continue to hold on to hope.

That’s the hyper-broad overview….

Recognition that change is taking place is the first step to then embracing it and participating in its evolution. Opportunity, or crises?

I’m no historian, but my vague recollections of American History suggest that “difficult” has never been the one insurmountable obstacle that has kept us from achievement. No reason to change that now.

I’m going with “Opportunity”, and will devote most of my posts in these next few months to exploring what that means and what we might do to seize the moments that now present themselves. Hope you’ll stay tuned.

To be continued next week….