Skip to content

Peak Oil Matters

A fresh perspective on the concept of peak oil and the challenges we face

Archive

Archive for February, 2014

072010 012_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The key take-away from the US EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook released [in December] jumps out in the graph below: US crude oil production should peak in 2016 at a level 26% higher than that projected just one year ago. That’s an additional 2 million barrels a continue reading…

IMG_1736_watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Tony Greenham:

In this report [“The economics of oil dependence: a glass ceiling to recovery” – link above for download] we argue that the current economic crisis is neither an oil crisis nor an energy crisis, but a crisis related to the cost and availability of transport fuels – gasoline, diesel, jet kerosene, and ship bunker fuel. These liquid fuels account for up to 80 per cent of all oil usage.
Transport fuels link all elements of the economy. If every linkage costs more due to sustained high oil prices, all costs will increase, the economy will slow, and inflation will rise.

Happy Talk about vast awash-ness of fossil fuel supplies for zillions of years to come tend to overlook pesky facts like that. Doing so makes it so much easier to avoid answering the question of “What is that’s not true?” (It’s not, by the way.)

Oil is indeed the “life blood” of our way of life. There’s an understandable urgency and psychological insistence that we are in fact amply supplied for decades and decades to come. To think that we might not be suggests a host of concerns and problems and challenges no one wants to contemplate, much less deal with.

But we are not amply supplied, if by that one understands that it’s a very different story if we discuss only potential resources underground or beneath the sea rather than the necessary and much more significant issue of actually getting it from there to here without bankrupting us all in the process.

High prices to consumers have a ceiling, and lowering prices to oil producers have a floor. Hit the ceiling and we stop spending, which brings prices down. If prices drop below the floor, the oil industry can’t produce or look for what we all need … every day, in all kinds of ways.

I understand next to nothing about economics, but I do understand that that is a problem. I also appreciate that it is a bigger problem is we just ignore it or hope for the best, rather than sit ourselves down and realize how much we depend on an undependable resource.

Before we know it, we’ll be bumping up against ceilings and dropping to floors and hitting walls, and none of those experiences will be pleasant for any of us.

Planning has merit. Planning sooner than later is even better.

~ My (wife’s) Photo: a sample of her (late) mother’s art work – 09.11.10

Next post will be on Thursday the 27th

 

I invite you to read my other blogs at richardturcotte.com

New features will debut soon at that website:

            * THE MIDDLE AGE FOLLIES

This new column began on February 3, 2014. It’s a slightly skewed look at life for those of us on the north side of 50.

            * THE TRETIAK AGENDA

A political thriller filled with unexpected plot twists and drawn from real world historical events, this eBook is now available for purchase.

TretiakAgendaEbookCoverFinal copy

You can find it here and here.

Excerpts are available at my website, at the link above.

            * LIFE WILL ANSWER

(The inspiration for the second blog at that website). This eBook is scheduled for Publication on March 5, 2014

Excerpts are being posted as of January 15th.

Looking Left and Right:
Inspiring Different Ideas,
Envisioning Better Tomorrows

Peak Oil Matters is dedicated to informing others about the significance and impact of Peak Oil—while adding observations about politics, ideology, transportation, and smart growth.

 

 

080411 018_Watermarked 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is unfortunate, however, that we cannot look at the real problem. Unless we can understand the problem as it really is, it is impossible to find solutions that might actually be helpful. [1] continue reading…

090110 021_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Ugo Bardi: continue reading…

102_0272_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE PREMISE

 

Population is a sensitive subject, but it is noteworthy that by 2050, oil supply will have fallen to a level able to support less than half the current population in its present way of life [1]  continue reading…

102_0025_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An observation worth noting … and pondering, courtesy of Kate Sheppard: continue reading…

100_0020_Watermarked-1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At the risk of starting a cat fight where truth may too quickly become a casualty, why don’t we more forcefully challenge those who deny peak continue reading…

101_0007_Watermarked 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Phaedra Ellis-Lamkins: continue reading…

083010 078_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAPEX, AGAIN

 

[T]he 2013 WEO has the oil industry’s upstream capex [see this and this] rising by nearly 180 per cent since 2000, but the global oil supply continue reading…

102_0001_Watermarked

 

 

 

 

 

 

An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Ugo Bardi: continue reading…