An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Tony Greenham:
In this report [“The economics of oil dependence: a glass ceiling to recovery” – link above for download] we argue that the current economic crisis is neither an oil crisis nor an energy crisis, but a crisis related to the cost and availability of transport fuels – gasoline, diesel, jet kerosene, and ship bunker fuel. These liquid fuels account for up to 80 per cent of all oil usage.
Transport fuels link all elements of the economy. If every linkage costs more due to sustained high oil prices, all costs will increase, the economy will slow, and inflation will rise.
Happy Talk about vast awash-ness of fossil fuel supplies for zillions of years to come tend to overlook pesky facts like that. Doing so makes it so much easier to avoid answering the question of “What is that’s not true?” (It’s not, by the way.)
Oil is indeed the “life blood” of our way of life. There’s an understandable urgency and psychological insistence that we are in fact amply supplied for decades and decades to come. To think that we might not be suggests a host of concerns and problems and challenges no one wants to contemplate, much less deal with.
But we are not amply supplied, if by that one understands that it’s a very different story if we discuss only potential resources underground or beneath the sea rather than the necessary and much more significant issue of actually getting it from there to here without bankrupting us all in the process.
High prices to consumers have a ceiling, and lowering prices to oil producers have a floor. Hit the ceiling and we stop spending, which brings prices down. If prices drop below the floor, the oil industry can’t produce or look for what we all need … every day, in all kinds of ways.
I understand next to nothing about economics, but I do understand that that is a problem. I also appreciate that it is a bigger problem is we just ignore it or hope for the best, rather than sit ourselves down and realize how much we depend on an undependable resource.
Before we know it, we’ll be bumping up against ceilings and dropping to floors and hitting walls, and none of those experiences will be pleasant for any of us.
Planning has merit. Planning sooner than later is even better.
~ My (wife’s) Photo: a sample of her (late) mother’s art work – 09.11.10
Next post will be on Thursday the 27th
– I invite you to read my other blogs at richardturcotte.com
New features will debut soon at that website:
* THE MIDDLE AGE FOLLIES
This new column began on February 3, 2014. It’s a slightly skewed look at life for those of us on the north side of 50.
* THE TRETIAK AGENDA
A political thriller filled with unexpected plot twists and drawn from real world historical events, this eBook is now available for purchase.
You can find it here and here.
Excerpts are available at my website, at the link above.
* LIFE WILL ANSWER
(The inspiration for the second blog at that website). This eBook is scheduled for Publication on March 5, 2014
Excerpts are being posted as of January 15th.
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Peak Oil Matters is dedicated to informing others about the significance and impact of Peak Oil—while adding observations about politics, ideology, transportation, and smart growth.