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An observation worth noting … and pondering, from David Hughes:

* Eventually better technology cannot make up for lesser-quality geology, and IPs+ of new wells decline.
* As IPs decrease, more wells are required to offset overall field declines, and without massive amounts of new drilling the plays go into terminal decline. In the case of the Bakken and Eagle Ford, production is ultimately limited by available drilling locations. Production is likely to follow a bubble trajectory with a lifespan of less than ten years at current or higher production levels. [1]

+ Initial Production

Reality … facts, can be unkind to even the most determined beliefs and ideologies.

Yes, production totals from Bakken and other tight oil formations have been on the increase in recent years, giving rise to an inspired and dedicated group of enthusiasts anxious to put the “myth” of peak oil to bed once and for all. It’s been a wonderful story.

And if facts such as those recited in J. David Hughes’ exceptional report didn’t intrude, the story would have been an even better one. But it’s difficult to maintain fiction when non-fiction appears.

Ten years is not a long time in the world of energy production. It’s even more troublesome when plans to transition or lessen dependency on fossil fuels are even’t being considered by wide swaths of “leaders” at the present time. We remain a nation hopelessly wedded to fossil fuels, and the longer we refuse to consider not just the Happy Talk side of the discussion, but the facts above and in ground about our energy supplies, rate of production, and the assorted realities of getting the vast, massive whatevers from there to here, the more challenges we face in years to come.

A strategy … just not a particularly good or beneficial one. Choices….

~ My Photo: a cove in Gloucester, MA – 08.25.13

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Sources:

[1] http://www.postcarbon.org/drill-baby-drill; Drill, Baby, Drill: Can Unconventional Fuels Usher in a New Era of Energy Abundance? by J. David Hughes [Feb. 2013] © 2013 by Post Carbon Institute [Santa Rosa, CA]