An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Kjell Aleklett:
The IEA now considers that conventional crude oil production reached its maximum in 2008 and that it will decline by 2035. We, the IEA and IHS CERA all agree that crude oil production from currently producing fields is declining by 0.4 Mb/d per year [see Update below] and that the oil industry will not be able to compensate for this decline with new conventional crude oil production. We see that the total of current production and planned new production from the Canadian oil sands gives a level of possible production in 2020 of 3.2 Mb/d. This means that 15 years of expansion of Canadian oil sands production does not replace even one year’s decline in production from existing conventional crude oilfields. At the same time we can note that it is doubtful if, in 2020, there will be sufficient refinery capacity to handle 3.2 Mb/d.
Canada’s oil sands will not stop Peak Oil.
The news isn’t any matter from shale (tight) oil production in the Bakken and Eagle Ford basins, either—Happy Talk from industry shills noted and notwithstanding. And the Arctic? Seriously?
Denial remains a strategy, as does barreling headlong into a wall. Not the best of choices, but they remain available.
Math being what it is; reality being what it is; and geology being what it is as well, perhaps we might persuade at least a few more “leaders” in industry, media, and government to start explaining reality to the public so that more of us can get on with the essential business of planning?
Update (04.21.13): Thanks to Jeff O. who noted the typo in the quote above [which I’ve now boldfaced]. That should read “… declining by 4.0 Mb/d per year…”
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