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Following up on Monday’s post, another observation on the same subject worth noting … and pondering, from James Howard Kunstler

Those inhabiting the economic wish-space got a case of the vapors last week when the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) published an annual report stating that the USA would overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer and reach the long-touted nirvana of ‘energy independence.’ The news was greeted in this country with jubilation. Thus, peak credulity meets peak bullshit….
Shale oil (and shale gas) share some problematical properties.
The cost of drilling each well is a big number, $6-8 million.
The wells deplete very rapidly, over 40 percent after one year in the Bakken formation of North Dakota.
The oil is not distributed equally over the whole play but exists in ‘sweet spots.’
The sweetest sweet spots were drilled the earliest and the quality of the remaining potential drill sites is already in decline.
The current trend shows declining first-year productivity in new wells drilled since 2010 running at 25 percent.
There are over 4300 shale oil wells in the Bakken formation of North Dakota producing about 610,000 barrels a day. In order to keep production up, the number of wells will have to continue increasing at a faster rate than previously. This is referred to as ‘the Red Queen syndrome’ which alludes to the character in Alice in Wonderland who famously declared that she had to run faster and faster just to stay where she is.

Happy Talk has its place in public dialogue, but if it is not coupled with facts, reality, evidence, information, the cherry-picked optimism only harms more of us longer and in more ways.

No one relishes, welcomes, enjoys, desires unpleasant news. But in the world we live in, facts aren’t always sunshine and happiness. And sometimes those same facts lead to obvious consequences and challenges to anyone paying even the slightest attention to the information conveyed.

Life as we know it, want it to be, expect it, or just insist on it no matter what, is going to change.

We can summon collective will and courage by recognizing that the Magic Shale Technology Fairy has some built-in limitations and unpleasant surprises in store the longer we ignore the facts, and start planning accordingly. Or we just continue to rely on Feel-Good half-truths.

Neither strategy is consequence-free. Do we choose to play a part in deciding how to deal with the inevitable outcomes of increasing demand crashing into the wall of declining availability of energy resources matched with inferior and more costly substitutes? Or should we just hold out hope that all will be well if we just close our eyes and click our heels a few times?

Choices….

* My Photo: Gloucester MA Harbor, 11.12.12

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An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Paul Gilding.

Like many, I feel a great impatience sitting here on the edge of it all. Waiting for it to be clear to everyone that it’s time to stop pretending the old models will somehow get back to normal. We lurch from crisis to crisis, but never seem to face up to the reality that old normal is gone, that step change is now our only option….
[B]ut building the momentum of the new takes time. And perhaps of more immediate concern, the dismantling of the old economy and the decline of the fossil fuel industry is being fiercely resisted by those who own it. To be fair, you can’t really blame them. I can’t imagine I’d take kindly to everything I assumed about the world being proven wrong and all my success now being blamed for the potential collapse of civilization. Denial and delay would be quite appealing!
But none of that really matters because the end of their world is going to happen regardless of anything they do. You can buy your way to political influence but you can’t buy new laws of physics. So we will change, not because of any great moral battle between good and evil, but because people and economics will respond to physical limits – the limits of the climate’s capacity to absorb our waste, the limits of our food production to keep pace with our demand, the limits of living on one planet.
Thus the need to act is no longer just a moral imperative, it’s now a social and economic necessity.

Facing great change is daunting to anyone and everyone. Who the hell wants that? The comfortable and familiar business as usual (or at least business as usual before 2008, when we paid the price for both the excesses of the prior decade and our failure to take a moment or two to consider outcomes suggested by facts and reality) is an infinitely better option. Who wants more struggles and more difficulties and more sacrifice? Denial is indeed a coping strategy.

The problem is that denial as a strategy will in due course (sooner rather than later) lead to its inevitable outcome. And when that happens, facts and reality will still be there bright as ever, but the time we could have used to think more clearly and plan more effectively will have slipped into the past. We’ll be left with less time, fewer resources, greater challenges, and increased urgency to get more done for a larger population faster and all at prohibitive cost. Hell of an option!

We can still rely on the Magic Technology Fairy to come racing to our energy rescue before we all really start feeling the effects of the peak in oil production (tar sands/tight oil hype notwithstanding). So too can we rely on economic ideologies which have consistently failed us for more than three decades, choosing the option that invests less on research and education and community well-being and women and the middle class, but more on the well-to-do at our expense, and hope that the facts and reality are all wrong.

Denial and misrepresentations and pandering and playing to fear soothes the soul today, but lead us to a very unpleasant future for which we will be woefully unprepared to face. Short term gain, long-term pain. Who benefits more? Who suffers more?

Accepting the facts and evidence and reality standing before us will surely be unpleasant now in their own right. But once we move past that by summoning the will and confidence and courage and wisdom we each and all possess, we can then begin the slow but steady process of planning for a future with different energy resources as our engine. Short term pain, long term gain.

* My Photo: Good Harbor Beach, Gloucester MA – undated

 

 

 

 

[M]any people doubt that energy independence is even a remote possibility. They’ve been told too many times that the world’s running out of oil. Or at least all the affordable oil.
That’s just not the case, though. [1]

Gotta admire the tenacity of those who cherry-pick facts and/or continue to spout the same nonsense talking points. Rinse. Lather. Repeat. The strategy works, but if properly informing citizens is the objective in disseminating information, it would help if the full truth made an appearance now and then.

As I and others have stated ad nauseum, no credible proponent of peak oil argues that “we’re running out of oil.” It’s an appealing straw man argument, but why is it that the only people who continue to make that claim are the deniers? If that’s their best strategy to assure themselves that facts and reality aren’t the facts and reality, then have at it, but keep those discussions to yourselves!

The author of this Wall Street piece then doubles down on the claim:

Here are the two major reasons Hubbert’s Peak Oil theory breaks apart when put into practice…
First off, a peak in production doesn’t mean a peak in availability. In other words, even if production spikes and tapers off, it’s not an indication that oil’s running out.

He’s right! But the point is irrelevant, since only he and his peers keep raising that same “running out of oil” meme.

Second, Hubbert’s theory ignores ‘unconventional’ fossil fuel sources like tar sands, heavy oils and shale oil. They weren’t easily accessible back in his day, hence they couldn’t be considered affordable and/or available. Fair enough.
Fast-forward to today, though, and Peak Oil adherents still hold onto Hubbert’s idea. They ignore, or grossly discount, the impact of unconventional sources on availability.
Yet five decades’ worth of technological advancement has made many of these sources very accessible – and much more affordable. And vast amounts of oil have been discovered in these unconventional sources.

Great! “Many” of those unconventional resources are “very accessible.” And the bonus: “much more affordable.” Good to have details….

Affordable to and for whom? Deniers never get around to answering that obvious question. Wall Street financiers probably don’t care. The other 99% may have a different opinion on what’s “affordable.”

Another playbook term [See this]: “vast” amounts have now been discovered. Great! So what?

How much more does it cost to locate and extract these vast amounts? How about quality? How long does it take to get from there to here? How high do prices have to be to justify all the effort and expense? To whom do those higher costs get passed on? [Need a hint?] How much more energy is invested in obtaining the unconventionals? What other natural resources are being drawn done in ever-increasing amounts? What are those implications?

Facts still suck, but until deniers come to terms with the second part of their discussion: happy talk about vast resources buried underground must then be followed by the reality of what it takes—and costs—to get it to consumers, they continue to do a disservice to the tens/hundreds of millions of people relying on facts to prepare for their own futures.

* My Photo: Good Harbor Beach, Gloucester MA Sept 2012

[NOTE: Back next week … Happy Thanksgiving to all!]

Sources:

[1] http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2012/11/12/energy-independence-and-the-myth-of-peak-oil/; Energy Independence and the Myth of Peak Oil by Louis Basenese – 11.12.19

 

 

 

 

Imagine, if you can, that there is a resource everyone likes to use.  They like to use it for convenience: it lets them go places, have neat things, eat the foods they want no matter what time of year it is….
Now imagine, if you can, that this resource begins to become scarce. Imagine that the world could not discover any new supplies of this resource, nor could they produce it any faster. Imagine this was because the ‘easy’ supplies had already been used, and now the more difficult to reach supplies were economically disadvantageous to access… What would happen to the supply of this resource? It would dwindle. And what would happen to all the items that were made from it? They would rise in price. And what would happen if the resource became so scarce that not everyone could have it? How would people react? [1]

How indeed?

While it would be so much easier and better if we only had to imagine this scenario, Reality is telling us a different story—magical technology and bazillions of barrels of shale oil and tar sands underground notwithstanding. Likely consequences are certainly unpleasant, enduring, and far-reaching—all the more so if we aren’t planning to do much about it in advance, as seems clear.

Given that there are almost no aspects of everyday living and producing which are not dependent in large or small part on the ready availability of affordable, high-quality conventional crude oil, Peak Oil will leave few aspects of life-as-we-know-it untouched. It’s all the more important we recognize that the various “Plan B” substitutes/alternatives don’t provide us with the same combination of energy efficiency, accessibility, affordability, and supply. Changes in all that we do, use, own, make, transport, etc., etc., are inevitable.

A little foresight will go a long way. A lot more foresight would be better.

With that in mind, here’s the latest contribution to my Peak Oil’s Impact series—observations and commentary on how Peak Oil’s influence will be felt in little, never-give-it-thought, day-to-day aspects of the conventional crude oil-based Life As We’ve Known It. A little food for thought….

In the ongoing saga of recovery from Hurricane Sandy, I find myself observing the incredible efforts, manpower, services, products, etc. being expended to help the millions of people suffering the after-effects of the latest example of climate change hoax. [Just imagine how awful the devastation would have been if climate change was a reality! Wow!]

And as I observe the broad range of generous assistance being extended to help our fellow citizens, I now almost instinctively find myself wondering what will happen when the full range of Peak Oil’s impact are being felt by all of us, and relief efforts of this magnitude are needed—as they surely will be?

Gas rationing is already being employed. Frustrations are evident everywhere as citizens struggle just to return to the most minimal aspects of normal, daily life. My wife and I watched a CNN report on a seventy-something year-old woman in New York who is now—twice daily—going up and down six flights of stairs [still no power in her building and thus no elevators] just to retrieve a half-dozen gallons of water to flush her toilet. Try that out if you’re twenty-five years old!

What gets prioritized during relief efforts in the years to come when we are all drawing from a smaller pool of fossil fuels to send power crews out to restore service, or safety officials to monitor darkened neighborhoods, or transportation services to deliver basic necessities? What gets sacrificed [and whose needs are set aside] in a mad scramble to deal with already-chaotic efforts if the most fundamental resources needed to perform any kind of relief effort is not available in anywhere near the amounts needed? Is adding more chaos and more last-minute scrambling atop chaos our wisest strategy?

NO ONE wants to think about or adapt to the long-term effects of a warming planet coupled with a decline in energy resources. There exists no standard by which those considerations are pleasant or eagerly embraced. But to not be having broad-based, ideology-free discussions is insane! Facts suck, but to ignore them is nuts.

Why shouldn’t we be having conversations about how to put plans into place now, before we’re dealing with ever-more-frequent upheavals with much less energy resources at the ready? By what measure of irrational thought is ignoring all the evidence and relying instead on a wing and a prayer a better approach?

When do we start having these conversations?

* My Photo: Good Harbor Beach, Gloucester MA 11.03.12 

Sources:

[1] http://americanendgame.wordpress.com/2012/02/25/peak-oil/; Peak Oil: Why Gas Prices are Never Coming Down by Dark Smith [“a former liberal … now firmly planted in the independent libertarian camp”] – 02.25.12

 

 

 

 

Imagine, if you can, that there is a resource everyone likes to use.  They like to use it for convenience: it lets them go places, have neat things, eat the foods they want no matter what time of year it is….
Now imagine, if you can, that this resource begins to become scarce. Imagine that the world could not discover any new supplies of this resource, nor could they produce it any faster. Imagine this was because the ‘easy’ supplies had already been used, and now the more difficult to reach supplies were economically disadvantageous to access… What would happen to the supply of this resource? It would dwindle. And what would happen to all the items that were made from it? They would rise in price. And what would happen if the resource became so scarce that not everyone could have it? How would people react? [1]

How indeed?

While it would be so much easier and better if we only had to imagine this scenario, Reality is telling us a different story—magical technology and bazillions of barrels of shale oil and tar sands underground notwithstanding. Likely consequences are certainly unpleasant, enduring, and far-reaching—all the more so if we aren’t planning to do much about it in advance, as seems clear.

Given that there are almost no aspects of everyday living and producing which are not dependent in large or small part on the ready availability of affordable, high-quality conventional crude oil, Peak Oil will leave few aspects of life-as-we-know-it untouched. It’s all the more important we recognize that the various “Plan B” substitutes/alternatives don’t provide us with the same combination of energy efficiency, accessibility, affordability, and supply. Changes in all that we do, use, own, make, transport, etc., etc., are inevitable.

A little foresight will go a long way. A lot more foresight would be better.

With that in mind, here’s the latest contribution to my Peak Oil’s Impact series—observations and commentary on how Peak Oil’s influence will be felt in little, never-give-it-thought, day-to-day aspects of the conventional crude oil-based Life As We’ve Known It. A little food for thought….

It is an understatement to characterize the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy as “mind-boggling.” That a late-October storm this far north could wreak so much havoc and destruction and disruption to so many millions of people stretches the bounds of what we’re capable of recognizing and dealing with. Good thing it’s all part of a hoax….

Among the countless visuals imbedded in our national consciousness now are the long queues at New York/New Jersey gas stations and the agitated, frightened, and frustrated drivers seeking to fill their gas tanks just as carefree and unconcerned as they had been for nearly four decades. A simple errand we all perform without a hint of worry has once again become a garish display of everyday life upended by forces well beyond our control—forces no one has thought worth preparing for.

Those of us old enough to remember the similar long gas lines back in the 1970s were quickly transported back to those days of endless waiting in lines circling the block so that we could do what we had been doing effortlessly for decades before: fill our own gas tanks. It wasn’t a pleasant experience then, and much less so now, to be sure.

Back then, we just had to worry about filling our tanks. Now, people filling their tanks are going back to homes and neighborhoods—if they can, and if they still have a home to return to—walloped by Mother Nature in all her fury. Nothing is the same, and as I write this a week before publication*, I doubt very much that much will be different as you read this now.

Peak Oil’s onset won’t be anywhere near as traumatic, nor will it be accompanied by so much emotional and physical and psychological trauma. But long before we have planned for what to do when this ever-so-common errand is no longer quite so common and not so much an errand as a labor, peak oil will make its presence known in ways not too dissimilar to what our beleaguered neighbors in the Northeast are experiencing first-hand right now.

All the talk about human ingenuity and technology etc., etc. will carry us only so far. We are dealing with a finite resource. The easily accessible and easily available, affordable stuff is becoming less accessible and less available by the day. We’re now left with more expensive resources which are more difficult to access, acquire, and produce; are less efficient; cost more in dollars and energy expenditures than the crude oil we’ve all been relying on for more than a century, and it takes more time to get from there to gas tank—among other less than pleasant considerations.

If the images of long gas lines in the battered New York/New Jersey regions today and/or the memories of long lines back in the 1970s don’t trouble you much, then don’t plan.

If those images and recollections have touched a nerve, however, we might want to start thinking about what to do before we have to deal with such unpleasant experiences each and every day. Unlike our fellow citizens who have suffered the ravages of Sandy, and who will in the near-enough future find themselves with one less worry—gas availability—to deal with, we won’t be so lucky in the years to come.

Now might be a good time to put our heads together, deal with the facts, and let the Happy Talk and disingenuous, misleading nonsense offered by those who couldn’t care less about the masses all and each find a place next to President’s Obama Kenyan birthplace and his socialist-Communist-Martian-repeal-the-Constitution-tax-everything-ruin-America mandate that he’s sure to get to one of these years.

* A few days after I wrote the draft for this post, Jason Notte’s article on a similar theme was posted. Worth reading.

* My Photo: Good Harbor Beach, Gloucester MA 11.04.12

Sources:

[1] http://americanendgame.wordpress.com/2012/02/25/peak-oil/; Peak Oil: Why Gas Prices are Never Coming Down by Dark Smith [“a former liberal … now firmly planted in the independent libertarian camp”] – 02.25.12

 

 

 

 

 

At the conclusion of the second part of this series I asked a question I’ve repeated on many occasions: What kind of a nation are we? What kind of a nation will we be?

Others wonder the same. We ought to consider a heart-felt answer to those inquiries as we vote today.

You can add today’s commentary to your musings about other important considerations in casting your vote. I’m offering some observations/quotes worth noting … and pondering further.

I’ll reserve most of my comments for other times. For now, the narrative offered via these independent yet interrelated quotes are sufficient on their own.

Mitt Romney told a lie Friday, scaring Ohio’s Jeep workers with a claim that Jeep is shutting down US manufacturing and moving it to China. Now he is doubling down on this lie with a new ad. He is calculating that the lies will scare enough poorly-informed people to vote his way, never mind the truth. And we could see a president elected based on just lying….
The things Mitt Romney says can just astonish you. Romney shows a wondrous perfection of the ability to smile and just say whatever needs to be said at the moment to make the sale.
This time he tries to scare Ohioans by saying Jeep is leaving the country and taking all its jobs with it (when it is really expanding into other countries) and then promises to ‘fight for every American job.’ He says this even as Bain Capital’s Sensata is closing their factory here and sending all its jobs to China — adding even more money to Romney’s huge fortune….
If we elect a president based on a campaign of flat-out lies, deception and misdirection what kind of country will we have as a result? [1]

[See Robert Reich’s take on the lies here].

It is no secret that political candidates are capable of doing awful things when they are reach the desperate final days of an election campaign.
But trying to scare American workers into believing that a government initiative that saved their industry was some sort of secret scheme to shutter major plants and offshore jobs is more than just creepy. It’s economic fear-mongering of a sort that is destructive to the spirit of communities and to the very future of the republic as an industrial force….
George Romney’s ne’re-do-well son, a very different sort of businessman who devoted his career to taking apart American companies and offshoring jobs, is trying to resurrect his presidential candidacy with a big lie.
And the lie is about Jeeps….
Jeep’s parent company, Chrysler, rushed to clarify that Romney was completely, totally, incredibly wrong.…
What was Romney’s response.
Up the ad buy.
Expand the big lie so that it is now enormous.
The deception has become such a serious issue that, on Tuesday, Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne felt compelled to clarify what is becoming an international controversy.
‘Chrysler Group’s production plans for the Jeep brand have become the focus of public debate. I feel obliged to unambiguously restate our position: Jeep production will not be moved from the United States to China,’ wrote Marchionne….
Yet, Mitt Romney’s campaign is still running the ad.
Still lying. [2]

Lying is a form of abuse. It is a form of battering. It shows incredible disrespect to the people you expect to believe your lies. People who are lied to repeatedly lose their sense of what truth is, their grounding and their faith. They can become cynical, and no longer even able to trust those they should trust.
Lying to a country harms the country. Policies based on lies lead to disasters. A population that has been primed to believe things that are not true is a population that can be herded into outrageous actions. Look at the damage done when the country discovered that Nixon was dishonest — to this day people cannot believe in their government. Look at the damage done when people realized that Bush lied us into the Iraq war. If Romney is elected based on a campaign of lies, what will be left of us? What is left us us already, that he could rise so far?
What does Romney’s campaign of lies say about our country — and US? This is a question we all need to discuss honestly. Can we? [3]

Echoing those thoughts is an op-ed by Bob Cuddy:

[A]fter the events of the past several weeks, especially the second presidential debate, two things are as clear as clear can be about Romney.
First, he’s a bully.
Second, he’s a relentless and spectacular liar….
As to the lying, it’s true that ‘they (politicians) all do it.’ But Romney takes dissembling to new horizons. He’s almost light-hearted in the open way he changes his tune. He cheerfully admits that he said something different last week, and doesn’t seem to care that everyone can see it.
Romney and his camp own up to his lies as though they were an unimportant and necessary cost of doing business.

Mitt Romney kept quiet last week when the subject was rape and God’s will. He remained silent the week before when the news was all about Illinois factory workers pleading with him to stop his alma mater Bain Capital from offshoring their jobs.
At no time this year did Mitt denounce Republican employers who threatened their workers if President Obama is re-elected or condemn repeated Republican legislative attempts to suppress Democratic votes.
Throughout the campaign, Mitt Romney confronted numerous George Washington moments — opportunities to establish an aura of honor. It takes moxie to tell fellow Republicans that voter suppression is un-American. Only a guy with strongly held principles would stand up to the firm he founded and insist they stop the morally bankrupt practice of offshoring jobs from profit-making American factories. At every turn, Romney chose the ignoble path. He kept his mouth shut rather than speak up for what’s right. [4]

I hope we close this campaign by reminding voters that the values of the 47% video and the Republican convention are not just Romney’s values, but his party’s values, and that putting them in charge of the country would be a disaster. [5]

Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winner, and with a rather impressive CV and more than a passing knowledge about economics and fiscal policy, offered this in a recent interview for Salon with Andrew Leonard:

The budget cuts that Romney/Ryan propose will certainly slow growth. If the European downturn continues that could tip us into a recession. The cuts certainly won’t provide the kind of stimulus that Obama’s jobs bill, for instance, pushes. Romney’s plan is based on magic: Just because he gets elected, the economy is supposed to take off. There is no evidence that anything like that would happen. Quite the contrary — I think the opposite would happen. The business community would see the cutbacks coming and that would itself cause a slowdown in the economy.
So that’s the macroeconomy. Secondly, the Romney/Ryan budget promises to spend more on the military while cutting taxes and cutting the deficit, and that means only one thing. If you look at the arithmetic, it means less investment in infrastructure, R&D, education … it just can’t add up any other way. And that means we’ll be growing more slowly in the future.
The irony is that these two things — lower growth now and lower growth in the future — means that our debt-to-GDP ratio won’t improve, it will get worse….
If Romney wins, we will become a more divided society, a more unfair society. And that in turn will bring greater inequality, and will also undermine our growth.

And finally, from The Atlantic’s right-leaning/libertarian-ish/definitely-not-a-fan-of-and-not-voting-for Obama (or Romney) Conor Friedersdorf:

[Romney] supports policies that are an affront to the Constitution, can’t possibly make good on his domestic agenda, and has terrible foreign policy judgment….
For months, he has attacked the incumbent. He would have us believe that he is more attuned to American values and prudent enough to understand the importance of limiting federal power. He speaks as if he holds the values of the founders in high esteem, extolling the Constitution and portraying himself as a principled champion of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
What a joke….
In his capacity as a husband and father, Romney seems to be a man of integrity. As a politician and elected official, he has repeatedly shown himself willing to lie without a hint of shame or remorse. He has a well-deserved reputation for flip-flopping in a particularly off-putting way, insisting not only on his new position, but that it is what he’s fervently believed all along….
As Romney tells it, he’ll cut tax rates 20 percent, repeal the estate tax, refrain from raising taxes on the middle class, refrain from cuts to Medicare, spend more on the military, possibly wage a war against Iran, and reduce the deficit. Doing all he’s promised is mathematically impossible. The conservative media can pretend that Romney isn’t awful on all the issues I’ve mentioned.
I won’t. [6]

Neither should any of us. It’s our future, too, after all.

We don’t have a perfect President. Many have honest, fact-based, and/or legitimate philosophical differences with him. He has disappointed many, and failed to live up to (perhaps too high) expectations in any number of instances.

We have many challenges ahead. We can try the “every man for himself/get the government the hell away from me [except for bedroom matters, of course]” approach, or we can act as a community and as a nation that has a clear vision about where we are heading … together. Each candidate has made it clear which mission is his.

Those who hold to the notion that American “rugged individualism” was the model for successes past and ought to be the same model for the ever-changing future will soon enough find themselves in a world of trouble. Too many challenges on too many fronts affecting too many people in too many ways will leave those hoping for a government-free, no tax or regulation, you are on your own, Leave-It-To-Beaver world suffering needlessly.

That’s not to say that government is/ought to be the problem-solver of first resort all the time. But given the climate and energy problems looming on the horizon [facts still suck], notions that individuals will be better served without an involved government, fair taxation, needed regulations, and at least some reasonable measure of “liberal government” is as delusional as the birther argument.

That’s the choice we face, and all the spin in the world won’t change the fundamental issue for us all: Who benefits more? Who loses more? Not just today and next week, but the future—all of it.

Asking those questions matters. Finding the truth amid the pandering and misdirection and misrepresentations and irrelevancies is not easy. Make the effort, or don’t. That’s our choice, and by our votes will we make clear whether we cast aside reality and head merrily along to the cliff because the words soothe and lip-service to “values” is enough, or take a half-step back right now and play out the two scenarios awaiting us before we decide on which policies and actions will actually matter most to most of us. After is too late.

Are we a nation catering to the 1%, or at least 99% of us? On your own, or all together?

Understand the policies and the likely outcomes based on the facts, and then vote as if your well-being matters. It does.

NOTE: I’ll be back next Monday.

* My Photo: Long Beach sunrise, Rockport MA, 08.12.11

Sources:

[1] http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2012104429/latest-lie-romney-doubles-down-fridays-lie; The Latest Lie: Romney Doubles Down On Friday’s Lie by Dave Johnson – 10.29.12
[2] http://www.thenation.com/blog/170905/yes-romneys-liar-getting-ridiculous; Yes, Romney’s a Liar, but This Is Getting Ridiculous by John Nichols – 10.30.12
[3] http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2012104430/what-does-romneys-incredibly-dishonest-campaign-speech-say-about-our-country; What Does Romney’s Campaign Of Lies Say About Our Country? by Dave Johnson – 10.30.12
[4] http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2012104430/romney-willing-win-without-honor; Romney Willing to Win Without Honor by Leo Gerard – 10.30.12
[5] http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2012/10/lux_obamas_closing_week_should.php; Obama’s Closing Week Should Highlight His Economic Plan, Romney’s Elitism and the GOP’s Obstructionism by Mike Lux – 10.29.12
[6] http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/10/why-i-refuse-to-vote-for-mitt-romney/264330/; Why I Refuse to Vote for Mitt Romney by Conor Friedersdorf – 10.31.12

 

 

 

 

As I explained in the first part of this brief series [beginning here], we have some other issues to ponder before tomorrow’s election.

You can add today’s commentary to your musings about other important considerations in casting your vote. I’m offering some observations/quotes worth noting … and pondering further.

I’ll reserve most of my comments for other times. For now, the narrative offered via these independent yet interrelated quotes are sufficient on their own.

We must base our strategies and our end goals not on the inevitability of disaster (or redemption), but rather on a vision for a world which people can get behind based on its merits alone. From efficient use of resources to secure, clean energy and a better quality of life—a sustainable, resilient future is our best bet whether or not a new oil boom has begun. [1]

 

America still does not have an energy plan, and neither Obama nor Romney have cured that potentially fatal flaw. Both have offered general directional strategies and political fodder, not anything you could call an actual plan.
But the directions they would take us in could not be more different, and their implications will echo long into the future….
Governor Romney’s energy strategy is painfully regressive and utterly blind to these clear and present dangers. It sounds like an energy policy from 1970, not 2012. Not only are his claims about our current energy situation wrong — for example, citing U.S. oil production at 15 million barrels per day, according to the Washington Post [ link in original], when the reality is 6.2 million barrels per day — but his expectations for the future of oil are absurd, claiming ‘we’ (meaning North America) will be producing over 23 million barrels per day eight years from now. That’s more than the world’s top two oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, combined.
At least as far as energy policy is concerned, there isn’t really a choice between the two candidates at all. One is leading us toward a semi-realistic future, while the other would leave us in the lurch as fossil fuels decline. And while it’s true that elections are about more than energy issues, if energy becomes the biggest challenge of this century as I expect it will, then maybe that’s all you really need to know [2]

 

Essentially, the [Romney energy] plan is intended to remove most impediments to the exploitation by US energy firms of untapped oil, gas and coal fields in the United States, Canada and Mexico, regardless of the consequences for national health, safety or the environment. In particular, the plan has five key objectives: eliminating federal oversight of oil and gas drilling on federal lands; eviscerating all environmental restraints on domestic oil, gas and coal operations; eliminating curbs on drilling in waters off Florida and the east and west coasts of the United States; removing all obstacles to the importation of Canadian tar sands; and creating an energy consortium with Canada and Mexico allowing for increased US corporate involvement in—and control over—their oil and gas production….
Clearly, any move to eliminate the federal government’s role in overseeing oil and gas drilling on federal lands is bound to result in a greater risk of environmental catastrophe, as it will become impossible to adopt uniform standards for air and water protection, health and safety measures, wildlife protection and so on. [3]

 

So, what is the greatest impediment to the initiation of making energy development this nation’s #1 priority? It is the powerful opposition of the oil industry and its corporations, the most profitable in America. They want no part of new energy development, even if they occasionally make commercials claiming that they do. They fully intend to stifle the development of any new energy sources that they feel would threaten or diminish their massive, obscene profits. And so they are using their power and money to make certainthat ‘their’ senators and representatives in the Congress remain under their control. [4]

 

Only the oil industry would now have the audacity once again to peddle a story that it has gotten wrong for more than a decade as if it were brand new. Enlisting the media and its army of paid consultants, the industry is once again telling the public that oil abundance is at hand. And, what is doubly audacious is that it is promoting this tale as oil prices hover at levels more than eight times the 1999 low. Clearly, the industry is counting on collective amnesia to shield it from ridicule.
The industry’s purpose is transparent: To ensure that the world remains addicted to fossil fuels by convincing all of us that our energy sources–more than 80 percent of which are fossil fuels–don’t need to change. It’s a winning strategy even if the industry’s premise is wrong since the oil companies still have huge inventories of fossil fuels underground that they want to sell at top prices. And, they are only going to get those top prices if government, businesses and households fail to convert to alternatives and thus remain hostage to fossil fuels. [5]

 

What is the logic behind the industry’s campaign to spread the false promise of American energy independence?
The answer is actually quite simple. If the industry tells the public and policymakers the truth, then the industry’s attempt to vastly expand its U.S. operations will almost certainly fail. The truth is that the industry is having a difficult time finding good prospects in the limited areas overseas that it can now explore. So, it wants to return its focus to the United States and drill protected public lands and currently closed offshore areas so it can fulfill its primary mission, namely, making money for its shareholders and managers….
But the oil industry has pretty much gotten all the easy oil there is to get on private land in the United States. The remaining really big easy oil is on public land and in offshore areas controlled by the federal government.
In addition, new methods for bringing both oil and natural gas to the surface such as hydraulic fracturing currently enjoy environmental exemptions which the industry got written into federal law. The exemptions are little more than methods for transferring immense environmental costs onto the public through water, air and soil contamination as well as human and animal health effects–all in order to enhance industry profits.
But if these exemptions were portrayed as a necessary compromise to help the United States achieve energy independence, then the public might be convinced to accept them with little complaint. And so, the industry has found that the best way to distract the public from the industry’s unsavory motives is to insist that its new zest for drilling America’s wilderness and offshore areas is all about helping the country achieve energy independence. [6]

 

There is something like $50 trillion to $100 trillion of capital equipment worldwide that is built to operate on liquid fuels – and I am talking about cars, busses, ships, trains, airplanes, and golfcarts. You don’t quickly convert those or replace them, particularly if the problem takes place in a worldwide recession – there is less money available, governments are already weakened because of the present recession, governments will not be able to afford to do this kind of a thing.
So it’s going to be very difficult and it is going to take a considerable amount of time to either convert an existing piece of equipment to operate on something else or to build a whole new one and have it put into operation, because what we are talking about is a scale that is absolutely enormous as far as the world is concerned. [7]

* My Photo: Wellfleet, MA – summer of 2004  

Sources:

[1] http://www.treehugger.com/fossil-fuels/peak-oil-really-thing-past.html; Is Peak Oil Really a Thing of the Past? by Sami Grover – 07.03.12
[2] http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/energy-futurist/obama-vs-romney-who-has-the-best-energy-plan/573; Obama vs. Romney: Who has the best energy plan? by Chris Nelder – 09.05.12
[3] http://www.thenation.com/article/170786/mitt-romneys-extremist-energy-plan; Mitt Romney’s Extremist Energy Plan by Michael T. Klare – 10.23.12
[4] http://www.opednews.com/articles/Angry-Over-Rising-Gas-Pric-by-michael-payne-120305-560.html; Angry Over Rising Gas Prices? It’s Just The Tip Of The Iceberg by Michael Payne – 03.05.12
[5] http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2012/07/fool-me-twice-shame-on-me-oil-industry.html; Fool me twice, shame on me: The oil industry repackages the fake abundance story (from the late 1990s) by Kurt Cobb – 07.22.12
[6] http://scitizen.com/future-energies/the-oil-industry-s-deceitful-promise-of-american-energy-independence_a-14-3746.html; The Oil Industry’s Deceitful Promise of American Energy Independence by Kurt Cobb – 05.04.12
[7] http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/oil-politics-and-resource-wars/; Oil, politics and resource wars. Comment by Dr. Robert Hirsch at the 10th conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas in Vienna, Austria – May 30 – June 1, 2012

A slight variation on the normal “In Case You Missed These” series. I’m passing along some primarily political articles of note which in one way or another will have considerable bearing on what we do and don’t do as Peak Oil makes its presence felt. More specifically, with the election in just a few days, these are well worth reading to help us make informed decisions on Tuesday. A little weekend reading….

Enjoy.

~~~

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/opinion/krugman-truth-about-jobs.html

Paul Krugman
10.07.12
Truth About Jobs

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http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175601/

Michael Klare
10.04.12
Extreme Energy Means an Extreme Planet

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http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/10/25/an-economic-theory-of-limited-oil-supply/

Gail Tverberg
10.25.12
An Economic Theory of Limited Oil Supply

~~~

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/12310-mike-lofgren-how-democracies-die

Mike Lofgren
10.25.12
How Democracies Die

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http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/109159/obama-romney-gm-chrysler-detroit-rorschach-test

Jonathan Cohn
10.25.12
Why the GM Rescue Should Matter in Ohio—and Everywhere Else

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-what-america-will-we-pick/2012/10/25/4113b338-1ed6-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_story.html

Eugene Robinson
10.25.12
What America will we pick?

~~~

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/27/imf-study-peak-oil-could-do-serious-damage-to-the-global-economy/

Brad Plumer
10.27.12
IMF study: Peak oil could do serious damage to the global economy

~~~

http://www.resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2012/10/why-us-is-not-new-saudi-arabia.html

by Kurt Cobb
10.25.12
Why the U.S. is NOT the new Saudi Arabia

~~~

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/opinion/want-to-boost-the-economy-invest-in-science.html?_r=0

Neal F. Lane
10.28.12
Science Is the Key to Growth

~~~

http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/how-did-things-get-so-screwed-up/

Jared Bernstein
10.28.12
How Did Things Get So Screwed Up?

~~~

http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2012104430/what-does-romneys-incredibly-dishonest-campaign-speech-say-about-our-country

Dave Johnson
10.30.12
What Does Romney’s Campaign Of Lies Say About Our Country?

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http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2012104430/romney-willing-win-without-honor

Leo Gerard
10.30.12
Romney Willing to Win Without Honor

~~~

http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2012104429/latest-lie-romney-doubles-down-fridays-lie

Dave Johnson
10.29.12
The Latest Lie: Romney Doubles Down On Friday’s Lie

~~~

http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2012104430/what-does-romneys-incredibly-dishonest-campaign-speech-say-about-our-country

Dave Johnson
10.30.12
What Does Romney’s Campaign Of Lies Say About Our Country?

~~~

http://www.thenation.com/blog/170905/yes-romneys-liar-getting-ridiculous

John Nichols
10.30.12
Yes, Romney’s a Liar, but This Is Getting Ridiculous

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http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romneys-insanely-dishonest-auto-bailout-defense.html

Jonathan Chait
10.30.12
Romney’s Insanely Dishonest Auto Bailout Defense

~~~

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/hurricane-sandy-highlights-how-obama-and-romney-respond-to-disasters/2012/10/29/85ae66a2-21db-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop

Ed O’Keefe
10.29.12
Hurricane Sandy highlights how Obama and Romney respond to disasters

~~~

http://robertreich.org/post/34650220450

Robert Reich
10.30.12
Romney’s Latest Lie, His Former Lies, and Why We Must Not Put Liars in the White House

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http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/30/3074823/a-one-size-fits-all-morality-fails.html

By Leonard Pitts Jr.
10.30.12
A one-size-fits-all morality fails

~~~

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/obama-romney-hurricane-sandy-14261227?src=rss

Charles P. Pierce
10.30.12
Sandy: Evidence That Romney Is the Wrong President

~~~

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/10/why-i-refuse-to-vote-for-mitt-romney/264330/

Conor Friedersdorf
10.31.12
Why I Refuse to Vote for Mitt Romney

 

 

 

 

As I explained in the first part of this brief series, we have some other issues to ponder before next Tuesday.

You can add the commentary in this four-part series to your musings about [among other considerations]:

* who should appoint our next several Supreme Court justices [the same Supreme Court whose majority in its wisdom decided that corporations and the ultra-wealthy are free to corrupt democracy simply by writing bigger checks than any of us, as they are actively attempting to this day];
* whose policies will govern women’s reproductive rights [see this];
* whose concerns for the well-being of the middle class are genuine—consistently so, and not just since America got a first-hand look at one candidate’s genuine thoughts and feelings about the 47%;
* whose policies are directed to serving employees and employers rather than just the latter, wealthiest group, and
* whose policies for investing in our future and making the best use of our national government and resources are best-positioned to address the concerns about our future and the challenges we’ll face.

These are the things that matter. The fear-mongering and misrepresentations and blatant displays of disrespect for their constituency which one party has so ably demonstrated have served a purpose—not an especially honorable one. But that game must come to an end.

The future matters, too.

A few observations for starters, with more to come:

It’s no great insight to point out we’re stuck in an age of truthiness, where factchecking has been relegated to a section in the paper….When I say ‘policy analysis is missing’ I’m not talking about coursework from the Kennedy School of Government.  I’m talking about the math that says you can’t cut taxes 20% across the board and balance the budget.  Trickle-down doesn’t work.  Climate change is a real threat.  Occupying other countries without clear benchmarks and goals is not in our interest.  If we deeply cut federal spending, we can’t invest in public goods including education, economically productive infrastructure, a safety net, pollution abatement, and so on–investments that matter to many of all political stripes.
But again, what bothers me about the Romney campaign and the current moment is not just the policy agenda.  It’s their ability to completely deny that agenda and gain ground in the polls.  It’s Romney’s ability to very successfully argue that he doesn’t really have a big tax cut (the first debate), that the tax cut he doesn’t really have can be paid for by magic math, that his foreign policy is the same as the President’s (the last debate), that his plan will add 12 million jobs—the number that forecasters tell us we’re likely to see regardless of who wins.
How did we devolve to a country where someone like this can just assert things with virtually no backup from reality and not only be taken seriously but be allegedly gaining ground on a President with a solid, if not inspiring, record?  A President who can, with building evidence, make the case that were heading out of the economic woods, who’s got a budget that’s been scored by the CBO to stabilize the debt within the next decade, who plans to implement historic health care legislation that will unquestionably help tens of millions of people? [1]

 

Scientific knowledge and new technologies are the building blocks for long-term economic growth — ‘the key to a 21st-century economy,’ as President Obama said in the final debate.
So it is astonishing that Mr. Romney talks about economic growth while planning deep cuts in investment in science, technology and education. They are among the discretionary items for which spending could be cut 22 percent or more under the Republican budget plan, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
According to the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the plan, which Mr. Romney has endorsed, could cut overall nondefense science, engineering, biomedical and technology research by a quarter over the next decade, and energy research by two-thirds.
Mr. Romney seems to have lost sight of the critical role of research investments not only in developing new medicines and cleaner energy sources but also in creating higher-skilled jobs.
The private sector can’t do it alone. We rely on companies to translate scientific discoveries into products. But federal investment in research and development, especially basic research, is critical to their success. Just look at Google, which was started by two graduate students working on a project supported by the National Science Foundation and today employs 54,000 people.
Richard K. Templeton, chief executive of Texas Instruments, put it this way in 2009: ‘Research conducted at universities and national labs underpins the new innovations that drive economic growth.’ [2]

Ideology + policy/no-policy + action/inaction = outcomes/results/consequences. Who benefits more? Who loses more? Not just today and next week, but the future—all of it.

Look at the facts, not the spin from those with vested interests in keeping the citizens who are dependent on them for advice and information at best misinformed with half-truths, irrelevancies, or—if all else fails—pure nonsense. How will the ideologies and policies play themselves out here in Reality Land, which one party visits only on rare occasions?

What kind of a nation are we? What kind of a nation will we be?

* My Photo: The Day After Sandy – Good Harbor Beach, Gloucester, MA

Sources:

[1] http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/how-did-things-get-so-screwed-up/; How Did Things Get So Screwed Up? by Jared Bernstein – 10.28.12
[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/opinion/want-to-boost-the-economy-invest-in-science.html?_r=0; Science Is the Key to Growth by Neal F. Lane – 10.28.12

 

 

 

 

But, honestly, it’s time to get real about things. Honestly, it’s time for someone to ‘politicize’ this storm for what it is.
Based on what the various candidates actually have told the people whose votes they are soliciting, over the past 48 hours, it has been far better for the nation that Barack Obama and Joseph Biden are running the executive branch than it would have been had those jobs been held by Willard Romney and Paul Ryan. Both of the latter are on record — and on audiotape, and on video, and all over the Intertoobz, and, for all I know, bellowing from the fillings in your teeth — as recommending that the federal government’s responsibility for things like disaster relief be either handed back to the states, or privatized entirely. They have made this argument in public. They have made this argument as part of the reason why you should vote for them. They also have similar plans for the National Weather Service, and for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and they have made those arguments as part of the reason why you should vote for them. If those ideas had prevailed, and those plans had been passed through the Congress, and signed by President Romney, more people would have died because of this storm, and more people would still be dying from this storm two or three weeks from now.
What they are saying now in an attempt to walk back their earlier arguments is almost assuredly nothing but a barrel full of lies. They’d be out there saying the very same things today if they hadn’t gotten blindsided by this storm. Do you honestly think, absent the arrival of Miss Sandra along the east coast, Willard Romney and Paul Ryan would be out there refining their opinion on federal disaster relief? That they would have abandoned the notion of handing disaster relief back to the states, or to their various corporate cronies. That they would have distanced themselves from barely camouflaged bigots like John Sununu, who repeatedly calls the president ‘lazy’? [1]

Can any of us rationally contemplate what kinds of relief efforts might be taking place right now in the eastern third of the country under a Republican “leadership” which believes that disaster relief is better left to the states; better still to private industry? [See this.] Whatever efforts might be employed would of course take place after decreased funding for the very research and technology which enabled forecasters to serve us all so well in the many days leading to the arrival/onslaught of Hurricane Sandy. [See this.] The good news is that the very wealthy would get a tax break! I guess that evens it out?

Ideological pronouncements have their place, but in the real world, actions and words have consequences. Ideological beliefs which serve as the foundation for policies and non-policies likewise have consequences. Followers who blindly accept the rantings of “leaders” whose interests clearly diverge from those millions whom they arguably serve are not immune to what happens in the real world. They too will have to endure the repercussions of limited government in a world where the rare catastrophes aren’t so rare any more.

How’s that going to work for us?

Ask residents of New York City (where our daughter has been without power since the storm hit) or New Jersey how delighted they would be with scores of state agencies and private companies tripping over each other as they each try to get a handle on the thousands of considerations which must be addressed in an undertaking of this scope. Who needs coordination and the power of a national operation when you can have chaos instead?

And through it all, the media can’t even get Mitt Romney to acknowledge their presence, let alone answer a simple but important question: What does he plan on doing with FEMA and other federal government disaster relief efforts? We’ve all seen his answer already, which pretty much amounts to “Good luck to all of you!” [See this terrific summary by Alex Kane.]

Of course, by the time you read this, it’s entirely possible Romney will have completely reversed his position, as he has with tax policy, the auto bailouts [see this and this], and on and on it goes [for example] … but I digress.

As we regain our footing in the aftermath of the awesome display of power Hurricane Sandy wielded at the expense of millions of residents, we have some other issues to ponder as well before next Tuesday.

So between now and the election, I’m going to take advantage of my little soapbox and offer some observations/quotes worth noting … and pondering further, as we approach the election. Thinking for ourselves would be a good thing, and each of us is capable of doing just that.

I’ll reserve most of my comments on each for other times. For now, the narrative offered via these independent yet interrelated quotes are sufficient on their own.

I’ll do so for reasons admirably expressed by the always-reasonable and thoughtful Jared Bernstein:

Yes, it’s time to start thinking again, but more pointedly, it’s time to realize what a potentially wonderful country we have here in America and to once again embrace the responsibility for its stewardship.  Right now, that means making the effort to see through shape-shifting flim-flammers whose platform reduces to ‘tell me what you want and I’ll tell you that I can give to you at absolutely no cost.’ [2]

Facts matter.

* My Photo: The Day After Sandy – Long Beach, Rockport, MA

Sources:

[1] http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/obama-romney-hurricane-sandy-14261227; Sandy: Evidence That Romney Is the Wrong President by Charles P. Pierce – 10.30.12
[2] http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/how-did-things-get-so-screwed-up/; How Did Things Get So Screwed Up? by Jared Bernstein – 10.28.12