An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Thomas Homer-Dixon.

[C]oncerned analysts usually point to two basic facts. First, each year, the world’s mature conventional fields produce about four million barrels a day less oil than the previous year, a gap that has to be filled just to keep global output constant. In only five years, that gap grows to 20 million barrels a day of production – equivalent to twice Saudi Arabia’s output, which is mammoth. Second, the world’s cheap and easy-to-get oil is disappearing fast. So, on average, each additional barrel requires more work, more complex technology, more environmental risk to get and refine than the last.
These two facts mean that humankind will have to invest staggering resources – many trillions of dollars – to find and produce new oil if global output is to grow steadily for decades into the future. The International Energy Agency in Paris and other analysts have been warning for years that current investment isn’t nearly enough to ensure such a supply. The result is likely to be a critical supply crunch, perhaps within this decade, which could cripple global economic growth.

Sometimes, facts aren’t all that complicated….

The “complex” part of understanding not just the concept of the peak in rates of oil production, but of much greater significance—the impact on all of us—comes when those few with a vested interest in keeping citizens confused about those facts (or just simply misleading them) do just that, at our expense. Why?

Sometimes, the simplest answer to the solving of long-term energy (or social, or religious, or economic) issues comes from asking the simplest question:

Who benefits now and later, and who doesn’t?

* My Photo: Florida Everglades, Feb. 2005