[NOTE: This is the latest installment in a new PeakOilMatters series (which started here). It’s about finding a new and better vision to get to, through, and beyond Peak Oil and its widespread impact on what we produce, how we produce, and how we live. We won’t be falling off a cliff tomorrow, and the full brunt of Peak Oil’s effects won’t be experienced all at once, either. Gas and oil do not have to disappear entirely, nor do gas prices have to rise into the stratosphere before Peak Oil’s impact is felt.
Gradually, but inexorably, changes will be in the offing, however. We need to come to a better understanding of this, and start preparing ourselves now for the lengthy transition and just as lengthy ongoing impact of Peak Oil on all of us. Many issues must of necessity be considered, and I hope to make a contribution to the public dialogue we need to have. I hope you’ll find these objectives enjoyable as well as beneficial. We have more of a voice than we think we do. Finding that voice just might be our best hope.]

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If you were experiencing some new, painful, and unknown physical or medical symptom, the natural inclination of almost everyone would obviously be to meet with a doctor and find out what might be the cause. It’s probably fair to state that if the diagnosis unfortunately suggested a serious medical condition, the great majority of us would then want to know the truth, learn as much of the facts as we can, and understand all that we can about our treatment options.

It’s probably just as fair to state that we would not expect our doctor to keep the facts from us for entirely self-serving reasons having nothing to do with our well-being. Surely we would not expect or want our doctor to provide us with a host of lies and twisted interpretations of facts about our serious medical problem—or turn the problem over to his plumber. I don’t want my physician telling me that the excruciating headaches I’m suffering from are most likely caused by a few paper cuts (or a clogged drain) and that the best course of action would be to ignore the symptoms because they don’t really matter.

Why then, are legitimately serious world-wide problems being treated as carelessly and ignorantly as the medical scenario described above? We’re allowing either the habitually mis- or uninformed, or those who deliberately misstate facts for purposes at best questionable, to “inform” citizens about the true state of climate change or fossil fuel production (to say nothing of the truths about budgetary cuts), denying consequences at every step!

Why is the refusal to provide us with truthful information (needed to fashion appropriate responses) an acceptable course of action? Exactly how is any if this helpful? How much ignorance or self-serving narrow-mindedness are we expected to tolerate … at our expense? It’s fine and necessary to offer opinions in order to arrive at meaningful and beneficial solutions, but it is not acceptable to manufacture “facts”—or misrepresent them—to support those opinions.

The main premises of climate change and peak oil production are not especially complicated. I’m far from being the brightest guy around, but I know how to look at before and after photographs and appreciate that there are some way-outside-the-bounds-of-normal climate warming conditions. I can understand that as the entire planet warms even a little bit, more sunlight-reflecting ice melts instead, and the resulting (darker) waters absorb more sunlight. Warmer water (and steadily higher air temps interacting with the water) produces more water evaporation into the atmosphere, which then interacts with wind patterns and related features of normal climate creation. These progressive conditions prompt changes in weather patterns over time. If they are so significant that they are in fact creating changing patterns as is clearly the case, then (a) we’ve got some issues that won’t be resolved any time soon, and (b) at the very least, mitigation ought to become a much more familiar practice to everyone.

I know that when I see a photograph or a news clipping showing thousands of exhaust-spewing autos crawling along a highway at seven miles an hour for miles on end, and recognize even for a moment that this similar scene is repeated day after day after day in countless thousands upon thousands upon thousands of cities and regions in hundreds of nations around the world (many of which have far less stringent or even non-existent pollution controls), that there is a LOT of exhaust getting kicked into the atmosphere, and that the radiated heat from sunlight striking the Earth’s surface, which at one time escaped rather effortlessly back into the atmosphere, is now being trapped by those chemicals and compounds. If heat isn’t escaping, then it’s … not! (GOP leadership still with me on this?) A fairly fundamental concept most three-year-olds could grasp.

So if the heat is trapped within our atmosphere, and more and more of it likewise is similarly trapped day after day, (and keep in mind for those struggling with the science so far: heat is a warm effect….), then the atmosphere is in turn getting warmer … even in tiny, imperceptible measures. (I don’t think I can make that any simpler.)

So if the Earth’s surface (which includes water, for those still struggling to understand) is then heated even a little bit, then things that evaporate in higher temps … such as … water, escapes into the atmosphere. Moisture in the atmosphere is eventually going to fall back to Earth in some form of precipitation because that’s what it does here on Planet Earth. If it’s cold, then more moisture in the atmosphere results in more snow; and if it falls in warmer climates: more rain. Deniers with me so far?

I also understand just enough about basic math that when more and more autos are continually added to the mix over a period of decades, then more and more exhaust has been kicked into the atmosphere for those many years, and will continue for years to come. There are no giant vacuum cleaners just beyond Earth’s atmosphere which are going to be sucking up all that carbon and other-chemical stew. When we add factory exhausts and the heat or exhaust emitted from a zillion different machines of all kinds into that mix, and then add even more, then by golly we’re producing a LOT more greenhouse gases drifting into the atmosphere than we did even a few short decades ago. One would have to practice an other-worldy amount of denial and delusion to think that the cumulative effects of these conditions won’t cause major problems in the years to come. That’s where the GOP leadership comes in….

We’ve got an entire group of federal politicians denying the most basic of scientific facts regarding climate change! Narrow-minded (dumb) ideology now trumps science! If you live in a climate-proof bubble, then I guess you’ll have nothing to worry about. Congratulations! Don’t want to deal with the possibility of climate change? Become a Republican politician!

This is insane … and we’re meekly letting it happen!

I also understand that oil is a finite resource; we’re not making more of it on a weekly basis. Water in a tank is likewise a finite resource (setting aside obvious replenishment from outside sources—an option not available with oil.) No replenishment and the same levels of demand are going to eventually drain the tank. That’s just what happens. For those like me who are mathematically challenged, it’s nonetheless fairly clear that if you have a given amount of something and then some portion of that something is used or removed regularly and not replaced, you wind up with less. Peak Oil deniers with me so far?

If demand increases and there is still no replenishment, the water tank is going to be depleted faster because more people are using more of that same limited resource. Put that tank underground and in hard-to-access places, and the problem increases exponentially. Perhaps some Gatorade or soda or vodka might take care of a few liquid needs (using that same water in production, by the way), but they cannot provide all the benefits of water, a lot more effort is required to supply those inferior alternatives, and they cost more, too. Oil shale? Tar sands? Seeing any similarities yet?

Substitute the word “water” with the word “oil” and you have the basic conditions we call Peak Oil. Not rocket science … mostly just common sense, with all the fear, misrepresentations, obfuscations, disingenuous and distracting irrelevancies removed from the conversation.

As best I can determine, there’s not a soul on this planet who is not exposed on a daily basis to weather (it snowed here in Massachusetts last Friday), and over time, to climate. I’m just as certain that there are billions on this planet who depend in one way or another (regardless of whether they’ve even once considered it) on fossil fuels to provide them with either some sustenance or product or transportation or a production/employment/personal resource.

Bottom line: relying on those who deny facts carries its own unpleasant set of consequences. If you like surprises then continue to believe we have no climate or oil production problems.

“[I]gnorance undermines the entire process. When voters are ignorant, candidates are more likely to lie, confident in their ability to get away with it. When the electorate is disengaged, policymakers feel less pressure to exercise good judgment, knowing they can just pull the wool over the public’s eyes later.” [1]

If, however, you prefer knowing, and you like the idea of having a say in what happens and what kind of plans might be considered which will surely have a direct impact on you in some way at some point, and then understand how the plans and strategies will take shape, it is time join in.

Understand, too, that these are not stand-alone challenges. If we are going to cut funding for mass transit and research—among other things—then we’re really just creating even more problems later on. Seems like we have an ample supply as it is, but if you are one of those who believe that postponing solutions until the problems get worse and become that much difficult to solve is the ideal state, then by all means encourage tax breaks for the wealthy and funding cuts for the rest of us.

Why invest in our future if we can secure tax breaks for the few wealthiest* among us today? Your beliefs will be richly rewarded down the road … or your children will have the pleasure of dealing with the “rewards” of today’s shortsighted decision-making.

[*An aside, from Robert Reich: “The 150,000 households that comprise the top one-tenth of 1 percent now earn as much as the bottom 120 million put together.”]

Solutions to all of these challenges are just a tad more convoluted, and many of them indeed carry legitimate arguments for and against. I won’t for a moment ignore the legitimate concerns about our debt and deficit. I just happen to believe that spurring demand across the economic spectrum is more critical now than inflicting more pain on 99% of our population, while lopping a few hundred thousand more off the employment lines in the process. But that is the governing philosophy of the GOP. If you are among the 99% of the population suffering through the Great Recession and its aftermaths, now would be a good time to ponder this for a moment as we verge on a shutdown of our federal government. I’m reasonably confident that Warren Buffet and Oprah and Rush Limbaugh and the Koch brothers et al will manage just fine. What about you and your family?

Some solutions are not that complicated, however. We’re free to decide that what we propose and then implement to accommodate the resource issues of the future will be worse than simply letting nature takes its course. We’re also free to decide that come what may, we want to give ourselves and our children the best opportunities possible in a significantly different environment. Our capacity to achieve either end is available to us. The upshot is that regardless of your beliefs or reliance on a host of less-than-truthful representations, change is upon us.

What will we choose? Our leaders will take their marching orders from us. If we do not provide them with guidance, then we will leave it to others arguing for their own narrower interests instead, or we’ll afford leaders the freedom to act on behalf of their primary benefactors. Neither of those latter two options is our best course of action. The consequences are pretty straightforward.

To be continued….

Sources:

[1] http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2011_03/028551.php; PONDERING THE ‘HOW DUMB ARE WE?’ QUESTION by Steve Benen – March 21, 2011