Every challenge we face now or will likely face with the onset of Peak Oil is a problem, unless we choose to view it for what it might actually be: an opportunity. Every product or service or method that relies upon oil is an opportunity to re-design or re-invent its successor. Easy? Of course not. But is the measure of “easy” the deciding factor in how we choose our future?

The truths, unpleasant though they may be, are the truths: inexpensive, readily available oil is slowly but surely becoming less readily available, more expensive, and harder to come by. We can wish for all the magic technology in the world, ignore every single environmental consequence, ignore all the geopolitical and geological realities, pretend that oil will still be ours for the asking as often and for as much as we want, or hope that Someone Else is going to rescue us, but delusion and denial will only take us so far. The sooner we accept the evidence before us, the sooner we plan intelligently on how to deal with what Peak Oil might mean to all of us.

I’m no different than most: I don’t want to have to do without; I don’t want to give up ambitions or expectations; I don’t want to have to make do with less or different, and I have no great desire to devote time and effort and planning and doing to embrace changes to my lifestyle. I like how my life has been—recession notwithstanding—and once we’re over this hump, I definitely prefer life to return to how it once was and to continue along on the business-as-usual and life-as-we-know-it path, waiting for the next great consumer product or technology that will make my life easier and more fun.

But the problem is that a future without the abundance of oil we’ve relied upon is going to happen regardless of my wishes and preferences, as it will for you. We can either choose to play a role in how it unfolds, or we can let events overtake us. We can decide to just enjoy what we can in the moment, while hoping that the overtaking will prove to be farther out than we realize, or that it won’t be as painful, or that someone/anyone is going to come to the rescue in ways that won’t require us to do much of anything except reap the fruits of someone else’s labors and vision. Nice thought … wholly unrealistic.

We have some key decisions to address soon. Where will we commit our financial and industrial resources? Are we going to dedicate public and private funds to a continuing search for more crude oil in costlier, harder-to-find-and-harder-to-extract locations? Do we allocate those funds to greater promotion of unconventional sources such as oil shale and tar sands?

Or do we choose a different path with the future in mind by directing our investments and efforts and skills toward a different energy base? There are no guarantees, and committing to that path will not provide us with quick or easy solutions. Relinquishing our ties to what once was and still is will not be a painless choice. But a longer term perspective on our future mandates that we consider these choices seriously, and soon. Waiting until we’re certain that Peak Oil is upon us is much too late.

Bob Herbert of the New York Times wrote a terrific (as usual) op-ed earlier this month (here) discussing once again the “sorry state” of our neglected infrastructure and the continuing decline of our standard of living. A monumental overhaul is needed, and it is indeed unfortunate that too few in positions to actually do anything about it have the courage and understanding to appreciate it. 

Herbert stated:

“Neither the politicians nor much of the mainstream media are spelling out the severity of these enormous structural problems  or the sense of urgency needed to address them. Living standards are sinking in the United States, and there is no coherent  vision or plan for reversing that ominous trend over the long term….

“I was also struck by the pervasive sense that if we don’t get our act together then the glory days of the go-go American  economic empire will fade like the triumphs of an aging Hollywood star. One of the participants [at a Brookings  Institution/Lazard-sponsored conference] raised the very real possibility of Americans having to get used to living in an  economy ‘that won’t be number one,’ an economy that perhaps is more like Germany’s….

Lumping that assessment in with the challenges that Peak Oil will impose upon us is not exactly a vision for the future we’d all like to share in. But we are not limited to the options of either complete denial or complete catastrophe.

Adapting to changes, taking the steps needed to rebuild what we must, and then create what we can is not an endeavor restricted to a handful of our business and political leaders. We all have a stake in our future. If we’re all invested in designing and then implementing new standards of living and producing, the benefits are enhanced tenfold. Having a say in where we go and what we achieve is preferable to remaining a passive observer.

Hebert continues:

“A new, saner, more sustainable economy will have to be more export-oriented, powered by cleaner fuels, bolstered by  innovation that comes from a renewed focus on research and development, and committed to delivering a better-educated,  more highly skilled work force.

 “Mr. Katz [who made the suggestions above] believes this is doable, but by no means easy. The nation’s infrastructure, he  said, will have to ‘shift from 20th-century models of transport and energy transmission to rapid bus, ubiquitous broadband,  congestion pricing, smart grid, high-speed rail and intelligent transport.’”

What tremendous opportunities for all of us! For all the turmoil and problems we face, there are solutions. Our ingenuity, our skills, our courage, our sense of community and well-being, and our individual and collective desires for a better future are resources we already possess to help us chart a new and yes, an even better course for our future. It’s up to us … all of us, together.

How great will it be to live in a country that has resolved the problems of unemployment; that has resurrected our economic and financial well-being; that has established new standards of living for all of us; that has opened up new opportunities for its citizens and businesses; that has repaired and re-built our infrastructure in ways that will allow for unlimited successes in the future—new and varied as that all may be? How exhilarating will it be to recognize that our technologies and our creativity have now taken us to a place where we are now fashioning an entirely new system of economic and industrial prosperity?

Is there anything inherently wrong with developing new values and news ways of life? Is there a rule that suggest that success and prosperity can be measured and valued only based on standards from the past?

Business as usual is not an option now. It will unlikely be one for a long while to come. Peak Oil won’t help as we re-build. Do we really want that to be our ultimate aim: to just settle back to the way things once were while much of the world passes us by economically and technologically, or do we really want more and better? We’re going to have to learn to look at progress and success in different and more creative ways. What we have now is not sustainable forever, not if we plan to rely on fossil fuels as the engine for our industrial and economic growth. And yes, none of this will be free, and much of it will require direct and significant involvement of our federal government, to the horror and dismay of those who think that “tax cuts” are the solution to everything. This challenge is far too great to think that we can set aside government entirely and leave it all to the “markets.” Every institution will have a key role to play, as will each of us.

What kind of a future do we want for ourselves?

Make no mistake: A move toward renewable sources of energy might very well lead to a future decidedly less than what we’ve come to expect or demand. That has to be acknowledged—reluctantly to be sure. Others have noted that we could be facing a simpler future where the local community and small businesses are the prime influences in our lives, and where technological gizmos of all kinds are simply no longer part of the equation of daily living. At first glance that is hardly an appealing goal for any of us to strive for. That seems a long step back.

One writer noted simply, yet eloquently, that his vision is “the right of all citizens to live larger lives….the right to live life more fully and engage more expansively the elemental possibilities of human existence.” [1] Not such a bad goal….We’ll have a lot of avenues open to us to reach it, so we’re not necessarily consigned to a future of less.

Do we just decide in the face of this recession, and our financial struggles, and terrible unemployment, and a crumbling infrastructure, and the most uncivil political discourse most of us can ever remember, and the fears that Peak Oil might easily spawn, that we’re content treading water, with an occasional burst of creativity and economic well-being; or do we really want to stretch out our future in ways we might not be able to fully envision now? Are we really that content with how things have been? Is our endless quest for profits and … more really that gratifying? Is more of the same really what we all want from life?

How many of us here don’t want a better and more prosperous and satisfying future for ourselves and our children? Who doesn’t want to play a role in the restoration of America as the undeniable leading nation on Earth? We have that much potential once again … we’ll just do so without a short-sighted reliance on oil and a mind-numbing belief that saying “no” to every progressive idea is an actual strategy. Fearing change is no longer an option.

We can hope that our business leaders and our federal government will somehow finance, design, and implement some kind of World War II/Apollo moon project energy-transitioning crash program without any input or effort on our part, but I wouldn’t be placing too many bets on that. Any transition away from our dependency on oil is going to take a lot of effort, commitment, and time. We can only hope that supplies are not so restricted in that intervening period that we fall further behind economically and politically. Every day we wait is another day lost on the path of designing a more technologically advanced society that is not built on an eroding foundation of fossil fuels. Taking the difficult steps now will simply avoid even more difficult steps later.

The future is indeed ours to create, much as we may think we have no say. Which path do we choose?

Next: The (Peak) Oil World We Live in

Sources:

[1] http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090525/greider?rel=hp_picks – The Future of the American Dream By William Greider; May 6, 2009, (from an article excerpted from Mr. Greider’s book, Come Home, America. Copyright © 2009)

and

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/06/opinion/06herbert.html – Time Is Running Out, By Bob Herbert, February 6, 2010