It remains my hope that with the right level of effort, commitment, vision, understanding, and action (BIG “ifs” of course), we can effect a reasonably non-disruptive transition away from our excessive fossil fuel dependency. It won’t be perfect or struggle-free, but we can take steps to make it easier. At this point, “easier” may be the best we can hope for.

I recognize that there are criticisms and ridicule leveled against the “doomers”—Peak Oil proponents who assert that we are heading for catastrophe. It’s difficult to gain an appreciation for how much of our lives are predicated on the availability of easily obtained and relatively inexpensive oil and gas, and then consider with nothing but sunny optimism how much of our lives will thus of course be impacted when easy and inexpensive are no longer options. I admitted in my last post on this topic that it is a challenge. The fear that we as a society will choose to do nothing but hope for the best leaves us with little leeway to predict anything but ominous outcomes when Peak Oil’s full weight falls upon us.

I vehemently disagree with the snarky, uninformed deniers who smugly claim that this “doom scenario” is in some bizarre manner a source of enjoyment for us. Those kinds of comments do more to tell a tale about an author’s integrity and character than they do about people like me who are trying to inform. It’s almost unimaginable to consider that there are people who absolutely deny we’re going to face challenges of oil supply and production in the face of clearly articulated facts.

Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than had been anticipated; the oil industry itself is relying on fields past their prime, with less skilled help than is needed; more projects are being scuttled for economic reasons and lack of investment funding, and the industry’s own infrastructure is in need of great repair.

Finding oil and gas to replace the world’s fast dwindling reserves is increasingly risky as rigs probe areas once seen as too difficult or too dangerous, and costs are rocketing, which could imperil future supply.
The cost of discovering each new barrel of oil and gas has risen three-fold over the last decade as technology has pushed the frontiers of exploration into ever more remote areas.
As old fields run dry, oil companies are drilling wells in some of the most inhospitable regions, where political, physical, geological, geographical, technical and contractual risks are high…. [1]

(Although the article claims that such efforts are a “remarkable success”, the fact remains we are finding less than we are using every year, as has been the case for many years now.)

When Peak Oil will occur, or what specific factors bring it about, really won’t matter in the end. What does matter is the outcome: less availability, more expensive, more difficult to provide, with demand increasing significantly in developing parts of the world. Bad math….

I’m hard-pressed to understand what Peak Oil and global warming deniers hope to honorably achieve by sowing confusion and doubt where none clearly exists. What fear motivates them to do so, and how callous are they about consequences to all of us? Denial is a powerful tool, but to what end?

For all my optimism, I think we’re too late in the game to effect a completely trouble-free move away from dependency on oil. Changing our habits, our infrastructure, and our economic and industrial way of life is an immense undertaking—one that realistically requires at least a decade or two to have everything in place. We do not have that much time, but we have some.

The sooner we collectively agree on new courses of action (now there’s a gigantic “if” and hope!), the sooner we provide ourselves with the best chance of creating some measure of prosperity and success in a world no longer shaped and fed by unlimited amounts of oil. We have our work cut out for us as it is.

The biggest “if” is how soon we are all willing to engage. If the answer is anything other than “now”, then we will encounter tremendous difficulties as we move away from a fossil fuel resource that simply will not be available to us in the quantities, at the prices, and with the ease we have come to expect.

The vital components of this successful transition depend first and foremost on essential individual traits—characteristics that likewise define our culture and provide guideposts for our future. And in this regard, I am not as optimistic as I’d like to be, but I remain hopeful and still convinced of mankind’s ability to do the right things for the right reasons. We’ve adapted before, and in spectacular fashion. No reason to doubt our capabilities now, but we need to get moving.

The attitudes we bring to this process, the beliefs we’ll continue to hold (and perhaps of more critical importance, the ones we’ll change), will likely make the difference between a “successful” transition to fossil-free ways of life and one of great, unnecessary hardship. What we choose to do now will of course make a difference, as will choosing to do nothing—an admittedly easier path.

We are a nation that does not accept limits on what we can do and be and achieve. In many respects that may be our most beneficial characteristic. But so too can it serve to hamper us when change away from business and life as usual is mandated due to circumstances well beyond our control. Peak Oil is one of those circumstances. We can prepare for it, but we cannot control it.

Ultimately peak oil will not be a geological crisis, not an economic crisis, not a political crisis. Inevitably peak oil will be a global philosophical and psychological crisis. [2]

Our economy and society were first constructed and have been sustained on certain key assumptions and expectations. There is a sense of entitlement many of us carry, one that says that the gratifications we seek and successes we demand are to be fulfilled ceaselessly—preferably with little effort on our part. The “drill, baby, drill” knuckleheaded clamor is only one of many indications that our general approach to gratification is at times one of: “Do, get, have, and then think (maybe). Consequences be damned.” Not particularly admirable or beneficial….

If one were to choose a single word to characterize [what it means to be a 21st-century American], it would have to be more. For the majority of contemporary Americans, the essence of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness centers on a relentless personal quest to acquire, to consume, to indulge, and to shed whatever constraints might interfere with those endeavors. [3]

It’s a remarkably short-term focus that carries distressingly long-term implications.

The hard work of prior generations is not viewed with the same levels of respect it clearly deserves. It’s almost as though our attitude is that that’s what they should have done for us, so that we can now live lives of comfort, pleasure, and fulfillment for whatever needs we feel compelled to gratify in the moment. Prosperity is a reward for effort and commitment and skill and patience. It is not the right so many seem to think it is, and it is most definitely not a continuing guarantee. We are in some ways a lazy society getting lazier by the minute. We want everything fast, quick, cheap, and easy, and we have little appreciation for the hard work that was once our defining trait. That can change! I’m convinced of that; just as I am certain that it must change.

The risk is clear:

Generations that have been trained to want or expect easy, quick, automated abundance will find themselves having to adapt instead to a regime in which everything takes longer and requires more effort; in which there will often not be enough fuel or food to go around. [4]

What happens then? 

I’ll leave you with that thought for now.

To be continued….
Sources:

[1]: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61A28X20100211 – Oil exploration costs rocket as risks rise; Thu, Feb 11 2010 By Christopher Johnson
[2]: http://oilbeseeingyou.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-will-peak-oil-really-mean.html
[3]: Andrew Bacevich from his book: The Limits of Power: The End Of American Exceptionalism, (Metropolitan Books, 2008) as quoted by columnist Rod Dreher: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN-dreher_17edi.ART.State.Edition1.adb331.html – Peak oil is coming, and we’re unready, August 17, 2008
[4]: Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines by Richard Heinberg, p. 127; New Society Publishers, 2007