There’s likely to be little disagreement that for most of us, the current economic, social, and political issues and conflicts we’re now mired in are the most challenging set of conditions we’ve ever encountered. Even those relatively untouched by the hardships (are there any such people?) are no doubt weary of the trials and tribulations of our economy. It’s safe to assume that almost no one is looking for more calamities. Doom and gloom prophecies aren’t likely to captivate many followers.

“. . . the consequences would be unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would tip the world into a generations-long economic depression. Millions would lose their jobs as industry implodes. Farm tractors would be idled for lack of fuel, triggering massive famines. Energy wars would flare. And carless suburbanites would trudge to their nearest big box stores, not to buy Chinese made clothing transported cheaply across the globe, but to scavenge glass and copper wire from abandoned buildings” (from Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Paul Salopek’s 2006 report—as published by the Chicago Tribune—describing the consequences of Peak Oil. Quoted by Matt Savinar at http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/)

Not exactly an uplifting state of affairs, is it? If we all choose to do absolutely nothing about Peak Oil, and/or ignore and deny it completely, then I have little doubt that somewhere down the road that scenario might very well be the one we’re all confronted with. That’s ugly … and avoidable.

We should also recognize that there is a broad gulf between here and “there,” an expanse which affords us abundant opportunities to not only address the challenges we’ll face by decreasing oil production and increasing world-wide demand, but also to create entire new industries and ways of life well beyond what we may now envision. I’d like to just plant that seed for now.

Peak Oil need not be a catastrophe.

Perhaps the most elegant description I’ve come across is this one, courtesy of author Mick Winter in his book Peak Oil Prep: “Peak Oil simply means that oil resources on the planet are finite and that there will come a point in time when one day less oil is being extracted than previously. And the following day even less. And so on, no matter how much exploration is done, no matter how efficient the new extraction technologies that are developed.” A simple geological premise.

What it means is that just as we have throughout history, we’re going to have to adapt, to make changes which in the abstract seem both incongruous as measured against our current definitions of prosperity, and overly daunting.

The truth is that we would not be where we are now had our forefathers at various stages in our past decided that society as it stood must remain as is, and that opportunities for growth and advancement were choices easily declined. If we are open to becoming better informed about Peak Oil, then adaptation is more easily attainable. Not easy, of course, just easier than if we choose to ignore and deny. Choices….

As this blog progresses, I’ll discuss in much greater detail what those peak oil-related challenges will be. That requires speaking some truths we may prefer avoiding. But if we can all begin to understand from a personal standpoint the kinds of inevitable changes Peak Oil’s presence will impose, the better prepared we’ll be to accept them, to recognize opportunities rather than be paralyzed into denial (or worse, panic), and to move forward individually and collectively toward fashioning a kind of future we can all enjoy. It surely won’t be pain-free given how dependent we all are on inexpensive oil to fuel our ways of life, but it certainly need not be the Apocalypse, either. We’ll all have a say, and we’ll all have roles to play. Opportunity, or Disaster?

While acknowledging that I’m tiptoeing along a thin line between prophecies of doom and a hopeful if idealistic vision for the future (I’ve always believed that optimism is a better choice than pessimism), I think it’s imperative (and honest) to express a legitimate concern in the face of Peak Oil: Life as we know it will change. As much as we all fervently want the opportunities for growth and prosperity to just return to the way they once were, Peak Oil is going to have a pronounced effect on those expectations, and sooner than we’d like. (I’ll be devoting a lengthy series of posts to explain.)

A major reason why we may feel blindsided by the onset of peak oil’s consequences is that Americans in particular do not like hearing “no,” and they surely don’t like suggestions that unlimited growth is no longer an option. That’s served us quite well throughout history, but it’s not absolute dictum. Our way of life has been premised on the beliefs that technology will always save the day because our ingenuity, work ethic, resources, and talent will create/provide whatever it is we need to sustain an unending lifestyle of convenience and comfort. There’s an underlying sense of entitlement and expectation that may not always be in our best interests. We may be surprised at how Peak Oil’s onset interferes with those entrenched beliefs.

Any notions that unlimited prosperity (as we’ve all come to characterize it) is no longer an available objective won’t be received very well. Most peak oil proponents will tell you that this is a common and frequent obstacle in their quest to inform. It’s a daunting burden to contend with. The media’s inability or unwillingness to give due consideration to the topic has not helped, and there’s no doubt that many base their decisions on what is or is not important by what their preferred media tells them is important … or not. An unpleasant truth, but one we must acknowledge. And another truth is that we see very little from our government or business leaders by way of explanation or even discussion. The topic of Peak Oil often seems radioactive.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, sure as hell I don’t like hearing about anticipated tribulations brought on by peak oil. My wife and I enjoy a very nice lifestyle with some very, very nice material trappings. I’m not anxious to give any of it up, and I am less than thrilled at the idea that what we’ve enjoyed so far simply will not be available to us going forward (which is not to say I expect any of these peak oil-related changes soon. I’m just firmly convinced that they’ll be upon us much, much sooner than we anticipate, and unless we do start planning for them now, we will be woefully ill-prepared. It doesn’t have to be that way.)

Life as we’ve known it may be different in the years to come, but there’s no reason why “different’ can’t be prosperous and fulfilling, too. “Success” is not limited to the examples from our past. The truth is we’ve always changed, we’ve always redefined success and prosperity, and there’s no reason to believe we won’t do more of that in the days to come. We’ll have increasing opportunities to revise and expand those terms as Peak Oil prompts changes in our ways of life—and it will.

There is absolutely no reason why we cannot all seek “larger” lives to lead even in the face of Peak Oil’s challenges. “Larger” can be different, too. It can also mean more than we might think.

I’ll return to this theme, because I believe our attitude and approach to what we’ll need to do will play a crucial part in determining the ultimate course of our society. It’s one of the primary reasons why I’ve started this blog. But for now, just a seed or two.

If we want a future we can live with, and a sustainable future we can pass on to our children with pride, then we’re all going to have to learn how to become more responsible in all its shadings. (Me, too!) We’ll still have the chance, as John Maynard Keynes once proposed, “to live wisely and agreeably and well.” Another choice we own. I hope this blog helps us find ways to live wisely, and well….

Next: An Introduction To Oil Use In The United States